All along, everyone has a directional thinking:
Once a real estate company defaults on its debt, it will be a thunderstorm! It's hopeless!
But in fact, this kind of thinking is too absolute!
Recently, Dong Jianguo, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, mentioned at the 2023-2024 China Economic Annual Conference:
It is inaccurate to call the default of some real estate companies a thunderstorm.
Debt defaults ≠ thunderstormsWhat is a thunderbolt?
Thunder is a financial term, a popular word on the Internet, which usually refers to some loan or investment platforms, and generally refers to the P2P platform due to overdue payment or poor operationFailure to repay the principal and interest of the investor within the time limit, thus appearing as a platformSuspension of business, liquidation, legal person running away, loss of contact with the platform, bankruptcyand so on, this situation is called a platformThunder
The same is true of the thunderstorm of real estate enterprises!
Vice Minister Dong Jianguo's intention is based onReal estate companies have many project companiesEven if there is a debt default, not all projects are suspended
The two most important sentences are:
Enterprises that are insolvent and lose their ability to operate as a result of violations of laws and regulations should be cleared up in accordance with the principles of rule of law and marketization
-- The result of the survival of the fittest in the market
Support real estate enterprises with tight capital chains for the time being, solve the problem of short-term cash flow constraints, and promote their return to normal operations
-- Resolutely prevent the risk of debt default from erupting in a concentrated manner
We have noticed that for a period of time, the society has called the debt default of some real estate companies "thunder" and "capital chain breakage", and its terminology is inaccurate.
The real estate enterprise is generally a group company and a project company, and the group company and the project company are independent legal persons, and the default of the debt of the group company does not mean that the project company has ceased to operate, and the development and operation of the project continues.
For example:SunacAlthough it couldn't pay off the dollar debt last year, but this year to November, sales also reached 792800 million yuan, and at the same time completed the debt restructuring and came back to life.
In fact, the high-level correction of the saying that "debt default is a thunderstorm" is also trueIt is hoped that these real estate companies that have had a small "black history" will be revived and the scope of assistance for real estate enterprises will be further expanded
This is first addressed to the bank, and later when you bail outDon't discriminate against others
The second is to talk to the first, remind the peers, in the future, if the real estate company defaults on its debts, don't say that people will be thunderousI am afraid that the social impact will not be good
If you look at a real estate company as a businessman, if you don't have enough funds, whether you have to borrow money, whether you can't repay it in a short time, whether you can apply for an extension, or repay your debts in other ways (i.e., debt restructuring), the shortage of funds in the short term does not mean that you are bankrupt.
Looking at debt default from a different perspective, it is completely understandable!
First of all, real estate businesses are often under higher debt pressure, and:Sometimes a default on a debt may just be a sound business strategy
Due to the fierce competition in the market, in order to obtain more funds**, real estate companies may choose to default to obtain more flexible capital operation space. This kind of behavior is a legitimate business decision of the enterprise, and does not necessarily mean that the enterprise is facing a crisis. Therefore, we cannot equate all debt defaults with a thunderstorm, and this simplistic judgment will cause unnecessary panic in the market.
Secondly, the development of the real estate market is a dynamic process, and changes in the market environment may lead to debt defaults of real estate companies.
Under the influence of factors such as declining market demand and the introduction of regulatory policies, the real estate market may adjust to a certain extent, resulting in some real estate companies facing operational difficulties and debt default. However, this debt default does not mean that the business is about to go out of business or go bankrupt. Many enterprises have successfully weathered the difficulties and achieved sustainable development by adjusting their business strategies, cutting costs and increasing capital turnover
In addition, there are debt defaults in real estate markets around the world, and people react differently to such situations.
In many developed countries, such as the United States and the United Kingdom, debt defaults by real estate companies have not caused much panic, because they look at this phenomenon more rationally and take corresponding countermeasures. In China, we should also look at the debt default situation of real estate enterprises with an open and inclusive attitude, not over-exaggerate its impact, but focus on establishing a sound market supervision mechanism, and strengthen the monitoring and early warning of the real estate market, so as to ensure the stability and healthy development of the market.
Finally,The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will continue to strengthen the supervision of the real estate market to ensure the healthy development of the market。We will strengthen the information disclosure of real estate enterprises, improve the transparency of enterprises, and understand the real situation of real estate enterprises in a timely manner, so as to take corresponding measures in advance. At the same time, we will also strengthen the macroeconomic regulation and control of the real estate market, and promote the smooth operation of the real estate market by guiding the flow of funds and adjusting market supervision policies.
The three red lines are gradually crumbling
In the past few days, high-level meetings have been held in a centralized manner, such as Politburo meetings, economic work conferences, etc.
And the real estate companies have not stopped, and the action is continuous!
Country GardenYang Huiyan, chairman of the board of directors, said at an internal meeting two days before the vice minister's speech:
"Under conservative calculations, as long as the inventory assets are sold normally, even if there is no land purchase, no tax reduction, and no new contribution of one body and two wings is not considered, Country Garden will continue to maintain positive assets in the next ten years. ”
Boss Yang even thought of compliance, and lowered his annual salary to 120,000 yuan, along with Yang Ziying, Chen Chong, and Mo Bin on the board of directors. This is the second salary cut, and Mo Bin's salary in 2021 is as high as 15 million yuan.
Boss Yang did it so seamlessly! 
Recently, the opening of real estate financing has really opened, the day before yesterdayCCCC Real EstateIt was announced that the proposed issuance of medium-term notes did not exceed 6 billion yuan, and the proposed issuance of non-public directional debt financing instruments did not exceed 4 billion yuan.
This was not possible before, becauseCCCC Real Estate has stepped on all three red lines, but now it can also be financed normally.
It also shows in disguise that the three red lines are gradually being dismantled, which is a good signal.
A few days agoPoly Real EstateThe buyback was also announced, and the company's actual controller increased his holdings, and the background of Poly is so strong that everyone should have heard of it.
The market is also speculating that perhaps Poly smelled the determination of the top management to save the market, and was optimistic about the long-term survival of the central state-owned enterprises in the future, so it would buy back.
"First stand and then break. ”
In 2024, everything revolves around these four words.