Look at the quantitative indicators and use wisdom to lead the peak.
Today's European line ** is up again, 8 days and 7 days are up and down, and the main contract has risen to 17449, this wave of ** is even more demonic than the demon stocks in A-shares. Obviously, this kind of **, some people get rich here, and some people blow up their positions here. I hope that all the fans of TB are one of the ones who have become rich.
Successful traders will always follow the "start and finish" rule, which means that if you buy by feeling, then sell by feeling. If you buy through **, then sell through ** signal. If you are a human to buy through fundamentals, then sell through fundamental signals. This is the law of a beginning and an end.
This round of European rally is "event-driven", starting with the Houthis, then it will inevitably end because of him. This requires real-time attention to the news.
The latest developments in the Red Sea incident
1. Yemen's Houthi rebels said in a statement on December 26 that the Houthis used multiple "suicide drones" to launch an attack on the southern Israeli coastal city of Eilat on the same day. The Israeli military said on the same day that Israeli warplanes had shot down "hostile air targets" near the Red Sea.
2. On December 26, local time, the U.S. ** Command issued a statement saying that the U.S. destroyer and fighter jets of the USS D. D. Eisenhower intercepted 12 suicide drones, 3 anti-ship ballistic missiles and 2 land-attack cruise missiles from Yemen's Houthi rebels over the Red Sea on the same day.
3. The British Office of Maritime Operations said on December 26 local time that on the same day, the agency received reports of two ** incidents over the Red Sea near Yemen. One of them occurred about 50 nautical miles west of the port of Hodeidah, Yemen, where a witness vessel reported spotting two drones, followed by two ** sounds.
The logic of the European line
I have written 2 articles about the European line before, and I think I have written it quite clearly, you can go back and read "Original |" againStimulus, all European line contracts are up and down, why?>>The Houthis are "on the bar" of the US escort, what are the best varieties to pay attention to?》。At this stage, we should focus on the following three questions:
1. The problem of shipping **, especially after the 10,000 US dollars during the epidemic fell to less than 1,000 US dollars this year, before the Houthi bombing of the Red Sea, the European line was at a relatively low level, so it will quickly open up the upper space in the short term.
2. The question of whether it will end in the short term, no matter how the Red Sea incident ends, it doesn't matter now, the important thing is that it will not end in the short term, and there will still be **, attacks and other events in the future, and every ship bombing incident will affect the European line.
3. What are the concerns of the speculators?European line container transportation** is cash delivery, so the speculative people do not have the concerns of physical delivery of other commodities**. The only concern is that regulation does not want such extremes.
Combat malicious hype
In order to maintain market stability and prevent excessive speculation, a lot of regulatory documents have been issued recently. According to the old rules, the margin and the rise and fall have been adjusted, and the maximum open position has been limited. However, the market still pulls the limit. The hype enthusiasm is too great, let's hype is hype, we still have to abide by the rules, and the unruly ones are being investigated.
Shanghai International Energy Exchange (hereinafter referred to as Shanghai International Energy Exchange) found that 96 groups of 246 customers were suspected of failing to declare the actual control relationship in the trading of the container transportation index (European line)** variety, and decided to take regulatory measures to restrict the opening of positions and restrict the withdrawal of funds for the above-mentioned customers in the container transportation index (European line)** variety in accordance with the relevant provisions of the "Shanghai International Energy Exchange Center Trading Rules" and the "Shanghai International Energy Exchange Center Actual Control Relationship Account Management Rules".
Factors influencing container freight rates
Many laymen simply don't know anything about shipping, and you still have to understand what you are speculating. The influencing factors of container freight rate fluctuations also depend on their own supply and demand fundamentals:
*The end is mainly the change of capacity, including fleet size and fleet turnover, as well as container size.
The demand side is closely related to the global macro, because the container goods are mostly downstream consumer goods and finished manufacturing products, so household income and consumption, inflation level, fiscal and monetary policies and inventory cycles will affect the changes in demand, and there is a certain seasonality in demand
In addition, the distance is also one of the important factors affecting demand, and the Red Sea incident has caused shipping companies to detour to the Cape of Good Hope, and the distance and time have increased, and the cost has naturally risen at the moment of high oil prices.
Well, there is no technical aspect to analyze this, most people can't grasp it, either watch the play, or do some related varieties, like ** industry chain related, you can pay attention to, I also wrote an article "Original |The Red Sea incident continues to escalate, the Houthis threaten the United States, and the transportation is greatly affected》
What are the signals of chemical varieties that are indirectly related to the Red Sea incident?
1. Asphalt: bullish trend 45 stars, 1 star on the risk index.
2. PTA: 4-star bullish trend, 1 risk index5 stars.
3. Styrene: 4 stars for trend strength and 1 star for risk index.
4. Polypropylene: 4-star bullish trend strength and 0-star risk index5 stars.
5. Staple fiber: 4 stars for the bullish trend and 1 star for the risk index.