Author |Yan Da.
I guessed that I was going to cut interest rates, but I didn't expect it to come so quickly. This time it was not the central bank, but the five major banks of the Ministry of Industry and Agriculture, the establishment of diplomatic relations with China, and national joint-stock banks such as China MerchantsIt is not the LPR that has been lowered, but the deposit rate. According to the data, the adjustment involves 3-month, 6-month, one-year, two-year, three-year, and five-year time deposits and large-amount certificates of deposit. Basically, it can be regarded as "all in one net" of fixed deposits of different periods. Among them, the more common three-year and five-year time deposit interest rates were lowered by 025% to 195% and 200%。This is the first time that the three-year listing rate has been below 2%. It should be mentioned here that the listed interest rate and the actual execution interest rate are generally not the same, the listed interest rate is more like a standard, and the actual deposit interest rate is often higher than the listed one. For example, the three-year listing was lowered by 025% becomes 195%, while the three-year effective interest rate on large certificates of deposit of many state-owned banks was 265%, if the synchronous downward adjustment is 025% will become 235% if lowered by 030%, that would become 235%。Three-year fixed deposit if from 265% down to 235%, the 100,000 deposit will earn about 900 yuan less interest in three years. Many people will wonder why many banks have lowered deposit rates after seeing many banks "raise interest rates" to pull depositsLet's put it this way, the basic interest rate hikes to pull deposits are small and medium-sized banks, the banks are also very volatile, the five major state-owned banks and more than a dozen national joint-stock bank outlets all over the country, the local small and medium-sized banks living space is compressed and compressed, in order to pull deposits, competition means in addition to making products more favorable, interest rates more competitive, basically there is no other way. On the other hand, loan customers, high-quality will be the five major banks and China Merchants, CITIC and other national joint-stock banks low loan interest rates, small and medium-sized banks deposit costs are high, loans are naturally relatively high, and customers who can come to their bowls will naturally not be high-quality. This is one of the reasons why the smaller the bank, the more likely it is to have a high bad debt rate and high risk. Unlike small banks, which raise interest rates to attract customers, large banks reduce deposit interest rates, which is also related to the larger volume and wider scope of their own business. There are two direct factors: First, in order to support the property market, the down payment and loan interest rate are constantly reduced, and these businesses are mainly concentrated in the five major banks and some national joint-stock banks. Second, in order to support the economy, whether private or state-owned enterprises, the interest rate on bank loans is basically in a downward channel. In other words, the interest rate on loans decreases, and the interest rate on deposits is lowered at this timeIt is equivalent to the macro control of the interest rate spread space of major banks. And the other side of the deep layer,It is to force everyone to take out the money to spend, and force the richer part of the people to take the money out to invest. At the same time, it also means that the interest rates of consumer loans, business loans, and home loans may be reduced again in the later stage. It is true that interest rate cuts are the mainstream way of macroeconomic control, but in fact, they are now almost stuck in a dead loop. In the past, there were several directions to take money out to invest: houses, cars, enterprises, etc., what is the purpose of investment?Naturally, it is to make money or to appreciate the value of assets. But now that the house is bought, it may not appreciate or depreciate, the car does not need to be said, it is needless to say, Lao Hu wants to jump off the building, and the investment in enterprises, the current excess of involution, it is not easy to do enterprises. So it's not that I don't want to take the money out to invest, but I know that the front is likely to be a pit, so I can't just jump into it with the reality that the risk and the return don't match, right?!However, if you don't consume, I won't consume, and if you don't invest, I won't invest, and at the macro policy level, we have to lower the deposit interest rate and force everyone to take out their savings and spend them. Non-consumption and non-investment will exacerbate the weakening of social demand, the difficulty of employment, and the difficulty of making money, and fall into an endless cycle. It is necessary to open up new growth points or activate old power points to break this deadlock. Two weeks ago, the CPI (Consumer Consumption Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) were released, both of which were lowered, with the former reflecting that residents did not dare to consume and spend, and forcing the latter to reflect the price reduction of enterprises**. The consumer side and the production side of the enterprise are both sluggish, and they dare not borrow money from banks to buy houses and invest in factories. At that time, I wrote in the article that there is a high probability that there will be a risk of having to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates in order to reduce the financing cost of enterprises and reduce the cost of personal loans. Now it seems that it is faster than expected, which also indicates that the situation is more serious. Go back and read again what the Supreme Council said, "Next year will persevere."Seek progress in stability, promote stability with progress, and establish first and then breakWe will strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical macroeconomic policy adjustments, and continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. "Seek progress in stability, first stabilize the current economic state, can not be worse, at least the data can not be worse, in the process of stability to find opportunities for breakthroughs, see the right to do it, do more if you can. To promote stability, this "progress" is probably to find opportunities and focus points for breakthroughs, and then play the role of leading areas with points to stimulate the overall economic vitality. As for "establishing first and then breaking down," it means that in the absence of a marked improvement in the situation, the existing economic structure must play a role in supporting the bottom and playing a role. Just like coal power generation, coal power will continue to play a supporting role until new energy sources are replaced. At the real estate level, the simplest, property tax will never be introduced in this period, and the legislation has pressed the pause button. At this time, the macro interest rate cut can indeed realize the adjustment of some funds in deposits, investment, and consumption. However, the two major blocks of the property market, especially the huge market of nearly 100 billion yuan, are extremely difficult to produce the ability to maintain and appreciate value.
Let residents invest their money in the first placeIn addition to putting money in the bank to deposit or buy some insurance, it seems that investing in ** is a loss and a small profit.