Since 2021, the once high-profile pharmaceutical sector has started a continuous trendThe CSI Pharmaceutical Sector Index has fallen by nearly 50%;Just recently, when everyone thought that medicine had bottomed out and was ready to enter the market, the pharmaceutical sector once again started the killing mode!
Why does medicine keep falling?Is there still a chance for the pharmaceutical sector next?
First, why did medicine fall again?
On July 21, the National Health Commission issued the "National Conference on Centralized Rectification of Corruption in the Pharmaceutical Field Held in Beijing", which showed that the National Health Commission and the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Public Security, the Audit Office, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the State Administration of Market Supervision, the National Health Insurance Administration, the State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine, the National Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention, and the State Food and Drug Administration, jointly held a meeting to deploy a one-year centralized rectification of corruption in the national pharmaceutical field.
In fact, as early as mid-July, the National Health Commission and the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Public Security and other ten departments jointly held a meeting to deploy a one-year centralized rectification of corruption in the national pharmaceutical field.
Under the continuous high-pressure crackdown, a number of hospital "top leaders" and key post personnel have been dismissed one after another. According to incomplete statistics,Since the beginning of the year, at least 159 hospital directors and secretaries have been investigated across the country, more than double the number of last year.
Among them, there are many secretaries and presidents of some grassroots hospitals who have the phenomenon of "petty officials and huge corruption". According to the details of the case previously disclosed by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection,In a local hospital in Yunnan, a linear accelerator with an import price of 15 million yuan, the hospital was 35.2 million yuan**, and the president ate 16 million yuan in kickbacks.
In addition, under the storm of pharmaceutical anti-corruption, a number of academic conferences have been postponed or cancelled across the country recently, although the reasons put forward by the organizers are different, but the industry generally believes that it is related to the pharmaceutical anti-corruption action.
Second, the importance of anti-corruption in medicine
In fact, the anti-corruption of medicine has been carried out, but as the saying goes, "there is a policy, and there is a countermeasure";According to industry insiders, with the advancement of anti-corruption policies in recent years, although pharmaceutical companies no longer directly issue kickbacks to medical personnel, nor dare to openly organize activities with welfare properties, professionalism in the pharmaceutical field is still the best "protective color" for commercial bribery, and a more hidden chain of corruption has also been born.
For example,Pharmaceutical companies falsely raise drugs in the production process**;;In the circulation link, false transactions and other methods are used to obtain funds for bribery;Rebates are paid to hospital staff in the purchase and sale of medicines, and the rebate ratio of some drugs is as high as 25% of the winning bidIn addition, in the name of sponsoring scientific research funds and academic conference fees, we also carry out the transfer of benefits.
According to a drug ** (pharmacokinetics), it was revealedFrom admission to promotion and sales of a drug and medical device, from the leader of the hospital to the leader of the department to the ordinary hospital, all must be in place. This also leads to the problem of the high proportion of marketing expenses in the pharmaceutical industry.
Taking listed companies as an example, 58 pharmaceutical companies had sales expenses accounting for more than 50% of their operating income last year. This means that these companies have to pay at least 1 yuan in sales expenses for every 2 yuan of drugs sold, which seriously squeezes the profit margins of enterprises. And this is the main reason for the increase in the pharmaceutical anti-corruption policy, through a strong policy to promote the industry to become more and more standardized, but also conducive to the long-term and healthy development of the pharmaceutical industry!
Third, are there any investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical industry?
First of all, it can be clearly seen from this diagram that the current pharmaceutical track has entered the stage of acceleration and reductionThe CSI 300 index represented by the red line has stopped falling and entered the ** momentum;
Secondly, the current valuation of the pharmaceutical industry is already at a historical low, and we choose the pharmaceutical and biological industry as a case studyJudging from the overall trend in the past 10 years, the historical average valuation level of the pharmaceutical and biological industry is 3769 times with a minimum value of 2054 times. The current PE (TTM) of the biomedical sector is 2646 times, already at the bottom of history.
Finally, the proportion of the market value of the pharmaceutical industry remains stable as a whole, and the value of the total heavy position in Q2 of 2023 will decrease slightly, and the market value of the pharmaceutical investment will remain stable as a whole, and the market value of the pharmaceutical investment will account for 1533%, down 179pct。
The proportion of the market value of pharmaceutical investment remained stable as a whole, ranking third only after the food and beverage and power equipment industries. That is to say, the pharmaceutical industry continues to be the best, but the allocation of large funds to the pharmaceutical industry has not changed
In addition,Judging from the interim report of the pharmaceutical industry, 107 listed companies in the sector have issued performance forecasts, of which 65 are expected to increase, and 57 companies with a performance growth rate of more than 30%.On the whole, the performance is not bad.
Therefore, to sum up, the short-term pharmaceutical anti-corruption has indeed caused greater pressure on the pharmaceutical industry, but it is impossible to fall forever, and good companies still have opportunities!