**of** going crazy.
According to the data of the gold price inquiry network, with the blessing of factors such as brand premium, the ** jewelry of some jewelry brands once exceeded 630 yuan on December 4, hitting a record high.
The price of gold has been rising, and many consumers are smiling, saying that "the big gold bracelet in their hands is more valuable".
According to Chao News, in early December last year, an investor in Hangzhou bought a kilogram of gold bars for 400 yuan and spent 400,000 yuan.
One year has passed, a few days ago, the investor made a decisive move, weighed and inspected the goods, 480,000 yuan in cash directly punched in, and made a net profit of 80,000 yuan.
In addition, there were investors who bought earlier, and the price of gold at that time was cheaper, with a total of 510 grams of ***480 yuan at the beginning of 300 yuan, with a net profit of more than 90,000 yuan.
Gold prices have been rising, due to the mentality of some consumers to "buy up but not buy down", many ** sales stores are also very hot.
In an interview with CCTV, a staff member in Shanghai said that the sales volume is now two or three times that of usual, and he is looking forward to the consumption of various festivals in the future.
In the face of the hot rise in gold prices, it is estimated that many people are ready to move, why is this wave of rise so rapid?Is there a chance to enter now?
To understand why the price is rising, we must first know what factors affect the volatility of gold prices.
Essentially, in addition to having commodity attributes, ** also has financial attributes.
That is to say, ** itself is a financial product, and its financial attributes determine that its ** is linked to real interest rates and has a strong correlation with the US dollar index.
The so-called U.S. dollar index refers to the weighted results of the U.S. dollar against six other major currencies, the higher the U.S. dollar index, the more the U.S. dollar appreciates against major currencies, and the more other currencies can be exchanged.
When we compare the U.S. dollar index with the international **, we can find that the two are almost a "seesaw", always in a state where you are high and I am low, or you are low and I am high.
So why is the dollar index**, will**?
We can look at this from two perspectives:
On the one hand, the dollar index means that the dollar depreciates, and every $1 purchased decreases, and the dollar will naturally decline
On the other hand, as a financial product, if the US dollar appreciates, investors who hold ** may sell ** for US dollars to increase their returns, and if the US dollar depreciates, those who hold US dollars will *** to hedge their risks, so the two trend is opposite.
Of course, ** itself is also a commodity, and its pricing will naturally follow the basic logic of supply and demand, and oversupply or undersupply will bring about changes.
Due to the relatively dispersed production area, the supply has been relatively stable, and if the systemic risk of the financial system increases, it is regarded as a safe haven by people, and the increase in demand will also lead to the price of gold.
Earlier we mentioned that ** has a high correlation with the US dollar index, whileThe main reason for this *** surge is the recent US dollar index**.
On the 28th of last month, the dollar index had fallen to 102746, the lowest point in nearly four months, fell by more than 3% in November.
Why is the dollar index falling?
The main reason is that the expectation of a rate hike in the United States has weakened, according to the CME Fed Watch tool, the probability of a rate hike in December has dropped to 0%, and the probability of a rate cut as early as March '24 has increased to 598%。
It's easy to understand why, for example, if you're a rich man and you have $10 million in the bank for interest.
In the past, the interest rate in the United States and Europe was about the same, so whether you put your money in a bank in the United Kingdom or a bank in the United States, the difference is basically not big, and the existence depends on personal preference.
But in the past year or so, the United States has raised interest rates frantically, and the deposit interest rate of American banks has become much higher.
Immediately afterwards, a large number of financial institutions and investors began to make similar choices, so the dollar became more and more sought-after, and the previous $100 may only be exchanged for 60 pounds, but now 100 dollars can be exchanged for 80 pounds, which is the so-called dollar appreciation and pound depreciation.
On the contrary, if the US dollar rate hike slows down or lowers the interest rate, it will lead to the depreciation of the US dollar, and the US dollar index**.
And the U.S. dollar index** followed, which is the biggest reason why the short-term trend is so exciting.
Investment is risky, and it comes with financial attributes, so buying is of course no exception.
Now the listing price of pure gold has exceeded 630 yuan, and the investment in gold bars has also come to about 580 yuan, even if it is the water shell wholesale market, it has reached 483 yuan, setting a record in recent years.
So for now,It is already at an all-time high, and the probability of us ordinary people wanting to get on the bus is not as great as imagined.
On the other hand, the market always reacts in advance, and this time it is higher, mainly because it is digesting the expectation of a US dollar interest rate cut next year in advance.
But don't forget, everything is just ** now, and even if the Fed starts a cycle of interest rate cuts, it will take time, so no one can say where gold prices will go in the future.
From the perspective of purchase, if you buy investment gold bars, you can guarantee the current price, in case *** continues to rise, you may indeed be able to make a small profit.
But if you buy ** jewelry, the probability of losing money is much higher than making money after calculating the comprehensive brand premium and manual fees.
Therefore, there is no problem with investment, especially now that the uncertainty in all aspects has increased, and long-term holding can be hedging, but the key is that now that it has reached a historical high, it is not cost-effective to chase high.
Write at the end:
10 years ago, Chinese aunts were dancing square dances while grabbing **, many people scoffed at this, and even Wall Street** created a new English word "dama" for this purpose.
Now that 10 years have passed, the price of gold has exceeded 630 yuan, more than doubled, I don't know if the people who laughed at Chinese aunts back then still laugh or not. Kunpeng Project