Summary: Sometimes economic development is like this: if you lose your horse, you don't know if it's a blessing.
Author: Feng Laiyi.
Article**: Kung Fu Finance (kongfuf).
India, the most populous country in Asia, has gone crazy.
Since the pandemic last year, 20 million Indians have **poured in**. Since 2008, India** has emerged from a 13-year bull market and continues to hit new highs, with the Mumbai SenseX Index up 702%. Since the early 1990s, India** has risen by 10,900%.
As of December 4**, India** had a total market capitalization of 356 trillion US dollars, ranking fourth in the world. India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has won key victories in three of the four state assembly elections, which will allow Modi to seek re-election in May. Also, strong macroeconomic data, as well as for India;The improving global environment will help India to continue.
There are reports that India** is one step away from an unprecedented $4 trillion market capitalization. Since the low point of the pandemic in March 2020, the market capitalization of exchange-listed companies in India has tripled to 3$93 trillion. The NIFTY 50 index climbed to a record high on the day.
If there is a long-term positive expectation, it will naturally usher in more investment, and on the contrary, there will be a large net outflow. How can a market with a net outflow be good?
India's economic development is currently better than expected. According to India** data, GDP grew by 7.2 year-on-year in the three months to the end of September6%, higher than all estimates in Bloomberg's survey of economists. This figure is also significantly higher than the RBI's 65% expected.
Strong economic growth means India will continue to maintain its position as the world's fastest-growing major economy as manufacturers ramp up production, consumption growth accelerates, and Modi steps up investment ahead of next year.
India's economy has shown resilience amid soaring inflation and the central bank's six interest rate hikes since last year.
Strong economic growth is underpinned by cyclical factors such as strong corporate profits, strong fiscal stimulus and pre-emptive spending," said Madawi Arora, economist at Emkay Financial Services.
It has to be said that India's young human resources are becoming more and more valuable.
In April this year, India's total population had reached 1428.6 billion, surpassing China to become the world's most populous country.
And more importantly, the Indian population is very young. As we all know, in order to develop the economy and industry, it is necessary to have a large number of young people.
In 2021, the proportion of India's population aged 65 and over was 68%, has not yet entered an aging society (the world standard for aging is a country or region with more than 7% of the population aged 65 and above). In terms of age composition, the proportion of India's population aged 0-14 is 258%；The proportion of the population aged 15-64 is 674%；The number of people aged 65 and over is 9441320,000 people.
In terms of gender, the male population is also relatively larger than that of women. But not to the point of exaggeration, the male-to-female sex ratio (male-to-female ratio for 100 females) is 1081。From the perspective of urbanization process, India's urbanization rate is 354%, and the urbanization rate is increasing year by year.
According to the current situation, India's population structure will be close to that of China by about 2050, which means that from now to 2050, India's labor advantage will be unparalleled in the world.
Of course, the ** myth of India wants to continue, and not a sudden "bang" in the middle, there is still a long way to go.
First of all, it is necessary to improve the business environment, because in recent years, India has relied on its geopolitical advantages to be unfriendly to foreign investment, and has used some populist means to target foreign investment at every turn.
The following are the penalties imposed on foreign-funded enterprises in India in recent years, and those less than $100 million are not worth mentioning
In 2007, Vodafone was fined $2.1 billion for tax evasion, Li Ka-shing was also fined $1.2 billion, Vodafone dragged on for 12 years, and the fine was increased to $5.1 billion.
In 2008, India fined Microsoft 7 billion rupees for failing to pay enough taxes.
In 2013, the Indian tax authorities knocked out Nokia 2 on the grounds that it violated fair competition$5.6 billion bamboo bars.
In 2013, India imposed heavy fines on IBM 8 for monopolistic operations and unfair competition$600 million.
In 2013, India fined BMW $100 million for violating import laws.
In 2014, India fined Samsung $200 million.
In 2021, India fined Walmart 13$500 million, Walmart couldn't stand it and withdrew from the Indian market in 22 years.
In 2022, India fined Samsung 2 again for tax evasion$1.2 billion.
In 2022, India fined Amazon 1$7.2 billion.
In 2022, Google was fined twice in a week for violating India's antitrust law$7.5 billion.
In May 2022, India froze Xiaomi's RMB 4.8 billion deposit on the grounds that Xiaomi was suspected of money laundering in the payment of patent fees.
In July 2022, India fined oppo5$500 million.
In August 2022, India accused Vivo of tax avoidance18900 million RMB.
In March 2023, Xiaomi received an Indian court fine requiring it to pay a fine of 4.8 billion yuan for illegally sending money to foreign entities.
These fines are often given different reasons, sometimes to say that foreign companies have monopolized the market, sometimes to say that foreign companies are illegally sending money, and sometimes that foreign companies are damaging the environment. Moreover, while the British left behind a complete judicial system, the Indians made it very Indian, leaving foreign companies often at a loss.
To tell the truth, it will not be difficult for India to develop in a few short years, after all, the general environment is here. There is a strong demand from all parties to dig up the mines of Indians. However, in order to develop in the long run, we must always give a good legal environment.
The second constraint on India's economic development is that there are too many differences between states, so the current economic development is only concentrated in a few states with relatively clear judicial systems. It is much more difficult to build a unified market than his northern neighbor.
The top four states in India are: Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Karnataka.
The basic characteristics of these states are the same: a good industrial base, a well-developed infrastructure, a large skilled workforce, and a decent business environment.
There are more than 100 ethnic groups and more than 1,600 languages in India, and language barriers between different states are common. Each of these states has its own laws, its own language, and even its own ethnicity. In the past few years, there have been frequent incidents in the southern states where there is no reason to set up barricades, and there are "countries within states" everywhere, but a large country cannot form an overall advantage, but is more like a big platter.
India's public transport has been underperforming for decades, largely to blame.
Other issues such as caste, women's rights, universal education, quality of work, and infrastructure issues that require a long-term effort are huge obstacles to India's economic development.
Take a look at the following qualities, the road to be taken in India, a bit long:
At a time when global capital and industry are shifting, it remains to be seen how far India can go.
Of course, on the other hand, India, which has not yet fully joined the global economic cycle, may also be less affected by the global economic depression and turmoil.
Sometimes economic development is like this: if you lose your horse, you don't know if it's a blessing(The author of this article, Feng Laiyi, ** in Kung Fu Finance, the web3 boss has been authorized by the author, edited and published by the web3 boss, and the views in the article are the author's views and do not represent the views of the web3 boss.) ）