In the shadow of the war in Gaza, the situation in Ukraine seems to have been forgotten, but in fact Ukraine is already waiting for the arrival of the F-16. These F-16s are second-hand fighters provided by Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway and other countries, of which the Dutch F-16 is about to be delivered. Interestingly, these countries were the first four Nordic countries to introduce the F-16 (the other is Belgium, which also intends to use the F-16), and they have the original F-16 along with the US Air Force.
The F-16 of the Nordic four countries belongs to the "original" version of the A B type, but has undergone a mid-term upgrade (MLU) to use the AIM-120 air-to-air missile. Due to the low frequency of use, these fighters have been in service until now. And the US Air Force is much more intensively used, the early F-16s have been decommissioned and mothballed, and there are not even many as spare parts. The MLU was "European custom", and the US Air Force directly replaced the earlier Type A B with Type C-D. Now the early versions of the C-D type are also beginning to be decommissioned and mothballed.
By the way, Taiwan's F-16A B (the batch sold during the Bush Sr.) is a "copy" of the A B type after the C D type has been put into production, but some improvements of the C D type have been added to the production process, so it is a relatively special hybrid version. At the technical level, it is basically equivalent to a newly manufactured MLU.
Zelensky is very excited about these F-16s, and NATO is also happy. Zelensky believes that with these sharp weapons, the war will develop towards the victory of the Ukrainian army. NATO believes that Zelensky's needs can be met, at least temporarily, and there is no need to listen to him every day to ask for more.
Indeed, after obtaining the F-16, subsequent ammunition, spare parts, training, and maintenance will take up most of the military aid to Ukraine. Freedom is not free, the aid of the United States and Europe is limited, and to fill the gap, other aspects can only be sacrificed. To maintain these F-16s, Zelensky must ask for something else. How Zelensky bargains with the United States and Europe next is still a good show. After the setback in Zaporizhzhia and the outbreak of war in Gaza, it became more difficult for Zelensky to ask for money.
But can these F-16s be useful to the Ukrainian army?That's the key question.
The Ukrainian F-16 needs to solve three problems:
Bases and sorties.
Air supremacy. Ground support.
There are more than 10 MiG-29s left in Ukraine, with occasional sorties, which shows that Ukraine still has some available air bases. But these bases and the MiG-29 are not much of a "threat", and the Russian Air Force is also vulnerable, so it will not go "whack-a-mole". If you hit it, you will fight, and if you can't hit it, you will endure it, anyway, the old Ukrainian MiG-29 has very weak ground capability.
A large number (it is said that there are as many as 61 units) F-16 is different. There are quite a few airports in Ukraine, but the number is limited and even fewer are in good condition. If these F-16s are deployed in a centralized manner, they will inevitably attract a fierce attack from the Russian army, and there is no more "fat" target than the fighters parked at the airport.
So there was the idea of a "fast Fighting Falcon".
This is an evolution of the US Air Force's "Fast Raptor", with 1 C-17 accompanied by 1-2 F-22s for rapid long-range deployment and independent support.
A C-130 comes with fuel, ammunition, and spare parts for fighters, and accompanies 1-2 F-15s to the field airfield suddenly, and the F-16 that is guaranteed directly leans on the C-130, refuels, loads, and provides simple support, and then attacks on the spot.
No more than 2-3 sorties at the same base, then the C-130 and F-16 were transferred, or directly returned to the safe base in the rear. For the Ukrainian battlefield, this is the base in Poland, Romania, Slovakia, providing deep support while waiting for the next sortie.
C-130 has a carrying capacity of 19 tons. Landing on a field airfield may require load shedding, which counts as 15 tons. The F-16 has about 3 fuel in the aircraft2 tons, the combat bomb load plus the fuel of the auxiliary fuel tank is 4 tons, and a little bit of the most basic consumables may be added, 2 F-16s basically occupy the entire load capacity of 1 C-130, that is, only one sortie can be guaranteed.
Unless the F-16 returns directly to the overseas base, the C-130 must return to the base during the F-16 sortie, loading more fuel and ammunition, which is easy to expose. In an ideal world, an Airbus A400M would be needed to accompany the sorties, and a 40-ton load would be enough for 2-3 sorties (4-6 sorties). But this is even more distant, there are simply not so many A400s in Europe that can be offered, and they cannot afford it, it is too expensive.
In terms of command and control, the C-130 only needs to bring the most basic command team, which is responsible for safe take-off, landing and basic airfield operations, and the actual operational command is the responsibility of NATO facilities outside the country.
If only one sortie is made, according to the degree of collapse of the Russian army, it is basically certain that the reaction speed of the Russian army's strike chain will not be able to keep up. If you attack many times, you may be able to keep up. At that time, it will depend on the character of both parties.
Since the "Swift Fighting Falcon" only needs runways that can take off and land, airport facilities, fuel and ammunition storage, and command and control are not a problem. This is a problem for the Russian army to preemptively strike.