This week, the pressure on the A** market continued, and the Shanghai Composite Index once fell below 2,900 points. In terms of market style, the decline of heavyweight stocks narrowed, and the small and medium-sized caps quickly made up for the decline. Looking ahead, the five major banks have lowered their fixed deposit interest rates in unison, which is expected to form a strong feedback on China's economy and the A** marketAnd as the end of the year is approaching, you can also look forward to the emergence of the New Year's Eve**. Looking backwards, under the combined effect of the gradual recovery of the domestic economy and the emergence of an inflection point in global liquidity, A-shares are also expected to recover** and re-break out of the bottom area.
First, the five major banks lowered their interest rates on fixed deposits.
On Friday, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Bank of Communications successively issued announcements, announcing that they would lower the listed interest rate of fixed deposits and withdrawals from that day, and other large commercial banks are expected to follow suit.
At the current stage, it is the general trend for large state-owned banks to reduce deposit interest rates: on the one hand, the first financial work conference once again reiterated that to reduce the financing cost of entities, the bank's concession to the real economy needs to be further strengthened;On the other hand, the People's Bank of China mentioned in the second quarter monetary policy implementation report of this year that the banking industry has faced the challenge of continuous narrowing of net interest margin in recent years. Looking backwards, as the interest rate cut has freed up valuable space for the banking industry, the space for China's monetary policy operation will be broader, and it can be expected that the MLF interest rate cut, the LPR interest rate cut and the People's Bank of China will follow up in an orderly manner, injecting a boost into social business entities (especially the real estate market) and helping China's economy to recover steadily.
For the A** market, in addition to the indirect benefits of helping economic recovery, the reduction of bank deposit interest rates also means that the cost performance of equity assets has risen. Looking to the future, according to China's long-term goal of 2035, China's per capita GDP is expected to reach the level of moderately developed countries. Since last year, China's domestic fixed deposit interest rates have also been lowered many times, and from this point of view, the cost performance of the A** field is expected to continue to improve over a long period of time.
Second, the end of the year is approaching, and the "spring restlessness" may be coming.
Although the current sentiment in the A** market is relatively sluggish, from the perspective of historical experience, as the year is approaching, it is worth looking forward to the "spring restlessness" of A-shares in the near future**
The so-called "spring restlessness" refers to the fact that the a** field occurred during the period from the end of the previous year to the second year after the Spring Festival, and since 2009, the a** field has occurred almost every year. In fact, the frequent occurrence of "spring restlessness" is not only a coincidence, but also has its internal logical rationality: on the one hand, at the end of the year, many equity asset management products are facing pressure such as large redemptions and performance lock-ins, and there will be significant position reductions, and a considerable part of such funds will return to the A** market after the beginning of the year;On the other hand, at the end of each year to the following year, after the Spring Festival, the first economic work conference and the two sessions of the National People's Congress will be held successively to make guidance and specific arrangements for China's economic work in the coming year.
Standing at this specific point in time, whether it is China's economy or the profits of A-share listed companies are at the bottom of the cycle, with the gradual increase in policy, as well as the further narrowing of the interest rate gap between China and the United States, the market has accumulated very sufficient conditions for bottoming out, superimposed on the tradition of A-share "spring restlessness", the market or will rush out of the bottom area.
Third, the consistency of macro policy orientation is the focus of market attention.
In the current situation of lack of market confidence, policy expectations are particularly important, affecting the sentiment of the whole market.
As early as March last year, the special meeting of the Financial Commission presided over by Liu He, then Vice Premier of the People's Republic of China, emphasized that "relevant departments should earnestly assume their own responsibilities, actively introduce policies that are beneficial to the market, prudently introduce contractionary policies, and respond to hot issues of market concern in a timely manner." Policies that have a significant impact on the capital market should be coordinated with the financial management authorities in advance to maintain stability and consistency in policy expectations." The recent economic work conference further emphasized that "it is necessary to enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation." Strengthen the coordination and cooperation of fiscal, monetary, employment, industrial, regional, science and technology, environmental protection and other policies, incorporate non-economic policies into the assessment of the consistency of macro policy orientation, strengthen policy coordination, and ensure that the same direction is exerted and a joint force is formed. ”
For a long time, China's various industry authorities to protect and promote the prosperity and healthy development of the industry as the mission, active, timely and effective introduction of laws and regulations, to guide and improve the development of the industry, this industry supervision model is an important reason for China's economy to maintain rapid and healthy development for a long time. At the current stage, due to the temporary low level of social confidence in China, the competent authorities of various industries in the formulation of industry norms, not only need to fully consider the policy orientation that is most conducive to the long-term development of the industry, but also should put the policy details of the industry into the entire macro policy framework for overall consideration, which will be more able to achieve the "same direction, form a joint force" emphasized by the economic work conference, and is expected to restore social confidence in the shortest possible time.
Overall, under the combined effect of the two expectations of economic recovery and the inflection point of global liquidity, the A** field is expected to gradually come out of the bottom area. Before the inflection point is further verified, the "triangle form" layout can be adopted, the defensive side, and the dividend strategy with high dividends and low valuations can be configured to benefit from the gradual repair of fundamentals and expected changesOn the offensive side, we can focus on the improvement of the supply side of economic growth and the rise of a new round of industrial cycle, and lay out relatively highly volatile TMT technology growth sectors, especially Huawei-related sectorsThe middle layer is mainly stable, with the layout of pharmaceuticals and consumption that benefit from the recovery of market pessimism, as well as pro-cyclical industries that benefit from economic recovery.
Table of Contents
1. Market outlook**.
2. Industry configuration ideas.
3. This week's market review.
1) Market ** review.
2) Supply and demand of funds.
4. Focus on macro events next week.
part 1Market outlook**
This week, the pressure on the A** market continued, and the Shanghai Composite Index once fell below 2,900 points. In terms of market style, the decline of heavyweight stocks narrowed, and the small and medium-sized caps quickly made up for the decline. Looking ahead, the five major banks have lowered their fixed deposit interest rates in unison, which is expected to form a strong feedback on China's economy and the A** marketAnd as the end of the year is approaching, you can also look forward to the emergence of the New Year's Eve**. Looking backwards, under the combined effect of the gradual recovery of the domestic economy and the emergence of an inflection point in global liquidity, A-shares are also expected to recover** and re-break out of the bottom area.
First, the five major banks lowered their interest rates on fixed deposits.
On Friday, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Bank of Communications successively issued announcements, announcing that they would lower the listed interest rate of fixed deposits and withdrawals from that day, and other large commercial banks are expected to follow suit.
At the current stage, it is the general trend for large state-owned banks to reduce deposit interest rates: on the one hand, the first financial work conference once again reiterated that to reduce the financing cost of entities, the bank's concession to the real economy needs to be further strengthened;On the other hand, the People's Bank of China mentioned in the second quarter monetary policy implementation report of this year that the banking industry has faced the challenge of continuous narrowing of net interest margin in recent years. Looking backwards, as the interest rate cut has freed up valuable space for the banking industry, the space for China's monetary policy operation will be broader, and it can be expected that the MLF interest rate cut, the LPR interest rate cut and the People's Bank of China will follow up in an orderly manner, injecting a boost into social business entities (especially the real estate market) and helping China's economy to recover steadily.
For the A** market, in addition to the indirect benefits of helping economic recovery, the reduction of bank deposit interest rates also means that the cost performance of equity assets has risen. Looking to the future, according to China's long-term goal of 2035, China's per capita GDP is expected to reach the level of moderately developed countries. Since last year, China's domestic fixed deposit interest rates have also been lowered many times, and from this point of view, the cost performance of the A** field is expected to continue to improve over a long period of time.
Second, the end of the year is approaching, and the "spring restlessness" may be coming.
Although the current sentiment in the A** market is relatively sluggish, from the perspective of historical experience, as the year is approaching, it is worth looking forward to the "spring restlessness" of A-shares in the near future**
The so-called "spring restlessness" refers to the fact that the a** field occurred during the period from the end of the previous year to the second year after the Spring Festival, and since 2009, the a** field has occurred almost every year. In fact, the frequent occurrence of "spring restlessness" is not only a coincidence, but also has its internal logical rationality: on the one hand, at the end of the year, many equity asset management products are facing pressure such as large redemptions and performance lock-ins, and there will be significant position reductions, and a considerable part of such funds will return to the A** market after the beginning of the year;On the other hand, at the end of each year to the following year, after the Spring Festival, the first economic work conference and the two sessions of the National People's Congress will be held successively to make guidance and specific arrangements for China's economic work in the coming year.
Standing at this specific point in time, whether it is China's economy or the profits of A-share listed companies are at the bottom of the cycle, with the gradual increase in policy, as well as the further narrowing of the interest rate gap between China and the United States, the market has accumulated very sufficient conditions for bottoming out, superimposed on the tradition of A-share "spring restlessness", the market or will rush out of the bottom area.
Third, the consistency of macro policy orientation is the focus of market attention.
In the current situation of lack of market confidence, policy expectations are particularly important, affecting the sentiment of the whole market.
As early as March last year, the special meeting of the Financial Commission presided over by Liu He, then Vice Premier of the People's Republic of China, emphasized that "relevant departments should earnestly assume their own responsibilities, actively introduce policies that are beneficial to the market, prudently introduce contractionary policies, and respond to hot issues of market concern in a timely manner." Policies that have a significant impact on the capital market should be coordinated with the financial management authorities in advance to maintain stability and consistency in policy expectations." The recent economic work conference further emphasized that "it is necessary to enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation." Strengthen the coordination and cooperation of fiscal, monetary, employment, industrial, regional, science and technology, environmental protection and other policies, incorporate non-economic policies into the assessment of the consistency of macro policy orientation, strengthen policy coordination, and ensure that the same direction is exerted and a joint force is formed. ”
For a long time, China's various industry authorities to protect and promote the prosperity and healthy development of the industry as the mission, active, timely and effective introduction of laws and regulations, to guide and improve the development of the industry, this industry supervision model is an important reason for China's economy to maintain rapid and healthy development for a long time. At the current stage, due to the temporary low level of social confidence in China, the competent authorities of various industries in the formulation of industry norms, not only need to fully consider the policy orientation that is most conducive to the long-term development of the industry, but also should put the policy details of the industry into the entire macro policy framework for overall consideration, which will be more able to achieve the "same direction, form a joint force" emphasized by the economic work conference, and is expected to restore social confidence in the shortest possible time.
Overall, under the combined effect of the two expectations of economic recovery and the inflection point of global liquidity, the A** field is expected to gradually come out of the bottom area. Before the inflection point is further verified, the "triangle form" layout can be adopted, the defensive side, and the dividend strategy with high dividends and low valuations can be configured to benefit from the gradual repair of fundamentals and expected changesOn the offensive side, we can focus on the improvement of the supply side of economic growth and the rise of a new round of industrial cycle, and lay out relatively highly volatile TMT technology growth sectors, especially Huawei-related sectorsThe middle layer is mainly stable, with the layout of pharmaceuticals and consumption that benefit from the recovery of market pessimism, as well as pro-cyclical industries that benefit from economic recovery.
part 2Industry configuration ideas
Industry allocation: Overall, under the combined effect of the two expectations of economic recovery and the inflection point of global liquidity, the A** field is expected to gradually come out of the bottom area. Before the inflection point is further verified, the "triangle form" layout can be adopted, the defensive side, and the dividend strategy with high dividends and low valuations can be configured to benefit from the gradual repair of fundamentals and expected changesOn the offensive side, we can focus on the improvement of the supply side of economic growth and the rise of a new round of industrial cycle, and lay out relatively highly volatile TMT technology growth sectors, especially Huawei-related sectorsThe middle layer is mainly stable, with the layout of pharmaceuticals and consumption that benefit from the recovery of market pessimism, as well as pro-cyclical industries that benefit from economic recovery.
Under the low interest rate, the cost performance of high dividends is more prominent, and many companies also have the blessing of "medium and special valuation" or the characteristics of low valuation;
After the strong TMT sector in the early stage suffered a short-term drawdown, it is worth paying attention to the growth space and new investment logic in the medium term, and the biggest new logic of this round lies in the localization of the electronics industry chain caused by Huawei's new machines and smart cars, and at the same time, Huawei, Apple and other companies have recently released new machines intensively, which has also driven the consumer electronics cycle out of a significant upward trend;
Healthcare, automobiles, food and beverage, leisure services and other industries, with the economic recovery is expected to enter a better window period, especially the health care industry, which has overfallen in the early stage, is expected to usher in a greater degree of ** under the dual incentive of the impact of the medical anti-corruption storm and the high growth expectation brought by GLP-1 ** drugs
Blue chip varieties with low valuations and low institutional allocations such as home appliances and building materials are expected to have transactional opportunities under the improvement of policies and expectations.
part 3This week's market review
1) Market ** review.
In the past week, the Shanghai Composite Index **094%, GEM refers to **123%, CSI 300**013%, CSI 500**253%, science and technology 50**049%。In terms of style, the performance of stability and finance is relatively good, while the performance of consumption and growth is poor. From the perspective of Shenwan's primary industry, the relatively top performer is coal (102%), power equipment (0.75%), household appliances (0.66%), non-ferrous metals (0.57%), banks (0.41%）；The lower performer was the media (-11.).12%), computer (-5.).81%), social services (-5.).39%), commercial retail (-4.).66%), combined (-4.).50%）。
This week, the trend of A-shares continued to be under pressure, and the small and medium-sized caps were sharply**. At the industry level, the TMT industry has been significantly stronger, and the coal industry has strengthened slightly. From the perspective of the popular concept plate of wind, the relatively top performer is the photovoltaic inverter (6.).71%), even the board (3.59%), playing board (343%), the first board (2.34%), energy storage (183%）；The lower performer is the online game (-12.).17%), cultural media theme (-10.).5%), virtual humans (-10.).43%), education (-8.).84%), K-12 education (-8.).73%）。
2) Supply and demand of funds.
In terms of capital demand, the scale of the primary market decreased this week, and the pressure on the lifting of restricted shares increased. This week, the amount of funds raised in the primary market was 431.6 billion yuan, a change of -65 from last week69%；Structurally, the IPO raised 342.1 billion yuan, a week-on-week change of 2180%；Additional issuance to raise 89.5 billion, week-on-week change of -9084%。This week, the total scale of restricted shares lifted was 6391.3 billion yuan, a week-on-week change of 9227%, according to the data disclosed so far, it is expected that the scale of lifting the ban next week will be about 9031.3 billion yuan, the pressure to lift the ban has risen.
In terms of capital supply, there was a net outflow of northbound funds this week, and ** issuance increased. The net inflow of northbound funds this week was -223.6 billion yuan, the net outflow narrowed significantly, of which the net inflow of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect was -13.4 billion yuan, with a net inflow of -21 percent0.2 billion yuan. This week, the total number of newly established ** and partial stock hybrid ** was 216.4 billion copies, an increase of 22 percent from the previous month68%, indicating that ** issuance is heating up. This week, the share of open public offering increased slightly, of which the share of ** type increased to 244146.2 billion copies, and the mixed share decreased to 33,4771.7 billion copies.
part 4Focus on macro events next week
Investment is risky, ** investment should be cautious.
Before investing, investors are requested to carefully read the "** Contract", "Prospectus" and other legal documents. **Equity may be lower than the initial face value and losses may occur. The Manager undertakes to manage and use the assets in a manner of honesty and trustworthiness, diligence and responsibility, but does not guarantee a certain profit or a minimum return. Past performance and its net worth are not indicative of future performance. The performance of other ** does not constitute a guarantee of the performance of this **.
The above information is for reference only, if you need to purchase relevant products, please pay attention to the relevant regulations on investor suitability management, do a good job of risk assessment in advance, and purchase ** products with matching risk levels according to your own risk tolerance.