in the presentChipsIn the industry, we can see a clear trend: maturityChipsThe cost is constantly declining as well as advancedChipsThe cost is constant**. Domestic mature technologyChipsThrough the low-price strategy is encroaching on overseas markets, and advancedChipsThe ** is constantly rising because of the improvement of technology. For advancedChipsEach generation of technology development comes with a huge cost increase. Future, 2nmChipsThe cost will be higher than 3nmChipsAn increase of another 50% will inevitably lead to the end consumer of the end product to bear this part of the cost.
With the further improvement of the process, advancedChipsThe cost of manufacturing is also rising. Take TSMC as an example, each generationChipsThe evolution of the process will bring about a huge cost increase. 2nmChipsThe cost of building the factory is about $28 billion, while the cost of a 3nm factory with the same capacity is about $20 billion. This increase in costs is mainly due to the increase in the number of EUV lithography tools. Special attention should be paid to the 2nm process requiredasmlofHigh-naeuv lithography machine, oneLithography machineThe price is as high as $300 million. Therefore, in order to achieve a production capacity similar to that of 3nm, the overall equipment cost will be greatly increased.
In addition, from a technical point of view, the 2nm process requires a more elaborate manufacturing process than the 3nm process. In order to maintain production speed, there is a clear need for more application of cutting-edge manufacturing technologies. ExceptLithography machineOther devices also need to be updated, which is not only time-consuming, but also expensive. Therefore, at 3nmChipsIn the process, TSMC is faced with the dilemma of customer choice. Some require advanced processes to manufactureChipsof customers may retreat because of **, while some customers temporarily choose to wait and see because of capacity problems. At present, TSMC's 3nm process is also only usedApplesExclusive, other companies want to wait until TSMC cuts prices or increases production capacity before considering it, even if they have demand.
According to the estimates of analysts, it is expected to be TSMCMass productionIn the next-generation N2 process, each piece is 300mmWafersThe cost is about $30,000, and it is based on the same specification of the N3B processWafersThe cost is about $20,000, which is a 50% increase in cost. According to this calculation,ChipsThe rise in costs will inevitably lead to the end product. Actually,ChipsThe increase in costs is borne by the consumer. According to an analyst,Apples2nmChipsThe cost will be up from 3nm nowChips$50 to $85.
However, it should be noted that since TSMC's 2nm process will not start until the second half of 2025Mass productionThe specific price increase also depends on the situation. In addition, the impact of yield and capacity will also have an impact on:Chipsof ** to have an important impact. Overall, whether it's 2nm or 3nmChips, their cost increases will ultimately be reflected in the selling price of the end product.
ForChipsDesign firms need to carefully consider whether such an advanced process is necessary. Take nvidia andamdFor example, they are still using the 5nm process, and it is expected that the 3nm process will be possible next year, even if there is 2nmChipsWhen they come out, they won't be adopted easily.
This phenomenon reflects the more advanced it isChips**The higher it is, only a handful of companies can afford each generation of advancedChipsdevelopment and manufacturing costs. Currently, onlyApplesThere have been breakthroughs in the application of the 3nm process, and other technology companies estimate that more customers will not start applying it until next year.
On the other hand, we can refer to the 18A of IntelChipsprocess, which will be adoptedasmlThe latest generation of EUVsLithography machineConductedMass production, the performance is expected to surpass TSMC's 2nm process. Compared to TSMC, Intel'sMass productionThe time is early, so forChipsFor the industry, this will be a more valuable case.
With advancedChipsThe continuous progress of the processChipsRising manufacturing costs have had a direct impact on the end product**. From the case of TSMC's 2nm process, we can see that on the basis of the 3nm process, the cost of the 2nm process will rise by 50%. This means:ChipsThe increase in cost will eventually be apportioned to the product purchased by each consumer. However, this increase in costs is not just a matter for consumers, forChipsDesign firms also need to carefully assess the need for state-of-the-art processes. At present, only a few companies are using advanced technology, and other companies still need to wait and see and consider. In the future, with the continuous development of technology, advancedChipsWhether it will be able to level off is still an uncertain question. Among them, the control of production capacity and cost will be the key. In this highly competitive industry, only companies that can master technology and reduce costs can remain competitive and bring more innovation and development to the market.