1. Hot information
[International News].
1. According to a report released by the New York Fed, its Multi-Core Trend Inflation Indicator (MCT) reported 26%, down from 288%。The October MCT reading was also in line with the six-month trend of the closely watched Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which was held in October**25%。
2. Saudi Arabia's energy minister said that OPEC+ production cuts can be "absolutely" continued beyond the first quarter of next yearThere will be no agreement to the phase-down of fossil fuels.
[Domestic news].
1. Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission: Adhere to the basic structure of the registration system unswervingly, and increase support for key areas such as high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-reliance, and the construction of a modern industrial systemDynamically optimize institutional arrangements such as IPO pricing, refinancing, and **, and promote the dynamic balance of investment and financing"Zero tolerance" cracks down on fraudulent issuance, financial fraud, market manipulation and other illegal acts, severely cracks down on "pseudo private placement", and cleans up and rectifies the gold exchange and "fake gold exchange".
2. Governor of the People's Bank of China: Improve the two-pillar regulatory framework of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy, maintain the stability of the RMB value and financial stability, and promote full employment and economic growth. Reasonably grasp the level of interest rates, and promote the reduction of corporate financing and household credit costs;Promote legislation on financial stability, early identification, early warning, early exposure, and early disposal of financial risks, and improve mechanisms for early correction of financial risks with hard constraints.
3. In the first 11 months, more than 3 new special bonds have been issued for project construction6 trillion yuan. Before the end of the year, the trillion-yuan new special bond limit for 2024 will be issued in advance to help the economy get off to a stable start next year. At present, many places are actively promoting the planning of key projects next year, in order to strive for special bond financial support.
On the 4th, the governor of the central bank pointed out that he took the initiative to adapt to the major transformation of China's real estate market, and strategically firmly adhered to the positioning that houses are for living, not for speculationStrategically, weaken the risk level of the real estate market, prevent the spillover of real estate market risks, meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises of different ownership systems without discrimination, and maintain the steady operation of the real estate market.
Second, the industry dynamics
1. Guangzhou Futures Exchange: Starting from the trading on December 6, the trading fee standard of lithium carbonate**LC2401 contract will be adjusted to 3.2/10,000 of the transaction amount, and the transaction fee standard of intraday closing position will be adjusted to 3.2/10,000 of the transaction amount. Non-corporate members or customers shall not open more than 2,000 contracts in a single day on the lithium carbonate**LC2401 contract. The number of open positions in a single day for hedging and market-making transactions is not subject to the above standards.
2. Former Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: The replacement of traditional fuel vehicles by new energy vehicles has been formed, and the original goal of more than 50% of new energy vehicles in 2035 is likely to be achieved in advance in 2025 at the latest to 2026.
3. According to the data of the China Iron and Steel Association, in late November, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel in 21 cities was 7.55 million tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons from the previous month, a decrease of 23%, inventories continued to decline: 1.02 million tons less than in late October, down 119%；An increase of 30,000 tons from the beginning of the year, an increase of 04%: an increase of 160,000 tons over the same period of the previous year, an increase of 22%。
4. China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association: Factors such as the domestic macroeconomic stabilization and improvement and the increase in demand for heating coal in winter will support China's coal demand to continue to rise. In the case of the steady release of coal production capacity and the maintenance of high coal imports, it is expected that China's coal will be relatively sufficient, and the relationship between coal supply and demand may be relatively balanced.
3. Overhaul and steel mill information
1. Nanjing Iron and Steel plans to overhaul a medium bar line from December 26 for a period of 10 days, which is expected to affect the output of 16-80mm bars50,000 tons.
2. Ninggang plans to overhaul the 1780mm hot rolling production line from December 5 to December 20, 2023, which will last for about 10-15 days, and is expected to affect a total of about 180,000 tonsDuring the period, one 2,500 cubic meter blast furnace was overhauled for 2 days, which is expected to affect the total amount of molten iron by 120,000 tons.
3. Lu'an Iron and Steel plans to overhaul the medium plate for 14 days in December, which is expected to affect the output of 90,000 tons.
4. Fangda Jiujiang Pinggang medium and heavy plate production line will start maintenance from December 13, 2023, and it is planned to be overhauled for 15 days, which is expected to affect the output of 90,000 tons of medium and heavy plate.
5. Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. plans to carry out annual maintenance of 8 4117m blast furnace from December 26, 2023 to January 15, 2024, which is expected to last for 20 days and affect the average daily output of molten iron by about 0920,000 tons;During the period, the output of rod and wire rod and hot-rolled varieties was affected, and the specific impact ratio was not determined, and the output of steel mills shall prevail.
On January 1, a high-carbon ferrochrome enterprise in Sichuan stopped production of 2 sets of 16500KVA submerged arc furnaces due to the increase in power costs in the dry season, which is expected to affect the monthly output of high-carbon ferrochrome by about 6,000 tons. Another company in Sichuan stopped production of 2 7500KVA submerged arc furnaces, which is expected to affect the monthly output of high-carbon ferrochrome by about 2,700 tons.
Fourth, downstream information
1. Shanghai issued the "Implementation Plan for the Complete Renovation of Old Housing in Chongming District, Shanghai". The plan points out that the renovation objects are non-complete sets of staff houses and small beam thin plate houses in the district, mainly involving Chengqiao Town, Bao Town, Miao Town, Xianghua Town and Changxing Town. The renovation category mainly includes pasting and expanding, adding floors, internal separation, and in-situ reconstructionThe expropriation category mainly includes agreement replacement.
2. The Federation of Passenger Cars comprehensively estimates that the wholesale sales of new energy passenger car manufacturers in November will be 940,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 29% and a month-on-month increase of 6%. The cumulative wholesale volume from January to November this year was 7.74 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35%.
3. Hainan Province issued a notice on the exemption of deposit for housing provident fund personal housing loans for existing house sales and real estate projects. It is mentioned that real estate development enterprises are exempt from deposit when applying to the Housing Provident Fund Administration for the registration of basic information of existing house sales projects.
Guangdong Province has arranged 1,530 provincial key construction projects, with an annual planned investment of 1 trillion yuan. From January to October, the investment of 970.2 billion yuan was completed in key projects in Guangdong Province, and the progress was 97%.
5. Market transactions
[Lecong steel world weighbridge import and export index].
On December 4, 2023, the steel world weighbridge shipment index recorded 97 points, up 18 points, or 23%, from the previous trading day, and down 10 points, or 9., from the same period last week3%；The steel world weighbridge purchase index recorded 79 points, down 9 points from the previous trading day, or 102%, down 18 points, or 18., from the same period last week6%。Yesterday, the weighbridge purchase index continued to fall, the spot ** fell steadily, the market transaction weakened, and the trading atmosphere was not good.
On the whole, considering the frequent occurrence of heavy pollution weather in the north and the continued weak demand for steel in the off-season, it is expectedIn the month, the steel mill maintenance and production reduction efforts will gradually increase, and the steel market may show a weak supply and demand trend in the later period. Although the spot price of raw fuel is still strong, the "bifocal" has been at a high level, and the cost side has fluctuated repeatedly. In the short term, steel prices may be weak. (The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice).