During World War II, Japan took the lead in developing and equipping regular aircraft carriers, and launched the largest aircraft carrier battle in history with the U.S. Navy in the Pacific. Although Japan's achievements in the field of aircraft carriers disappeared after Japan's defeat in the war, nearly 80 years later, Japan is one step away from regaining its aircraft carrier dream through a series of well-planned initiatives. Recently, Japan announced that the Izumo-class *** carrier Kaga of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force has completed the first phase of aircraft carrier transformation, and is expected to go to the United States in 2024 for the take-off and landing test and qualification certification of the F35B carrier-based aircraft, ready for the practical use of fixed-wing carrier-based aircraft. Subsequently, the ship will carry out the second phase of aircraft carrier renovation work, including improving the communication and command system and other software facilities. Eventually, it is expected that the entire aircraft carrier renovation work will be completed and handed over to the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force in 2027. The Izumo, the sister ship of another Izumo-class *** mothership, is lagging behind in the renovation, but it is also scheduled to enter service by 2027. In addition, the 42 F35B carrier-based aircraft procured for the Izumo and Kaga will be delivered in 2024 to form a temporary test squadron responsible for the operation and combat training of carrier-based pilots.
This means that the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force will have two aircraft carriers with real combat capabilities in four years, and finally achieve the goal of returning to the dream of an aircraft carrier in the "Imperial Navy". In recent years, in line with the U.S. military strategy of refocusing on the Asia-Pacific region, Japan has significantly increased its defense spending. In 2023, military spending increased by 24, while in 2024 it also grew by double digits. This move is aimed at breaking away from the so-called "exclusive defense policy" that Japan has been pursuing and vigorously developing offensive military strength. Specific measures include independent research and development of hypersonic missiles and the import of Tomahawk long-range cruise missiles from the United States. In addition, Japan is also actively promoting its aircraft carrier program, and the modification of the Cloud and Kaga is only the first step in its program. These moves show Japan's ambition and have led many to express concern about the potential threat that Japan's aircraft carrier program could pose to China. For this problem, we need to analyze it from both strategic and tactical levels. As the great man said: "Strategically we must despise all enemies, and tactically we must attach importance to all enemies". The same applies here.
At the strategic level, China's current naval and air combat capabilities and long-range strike systems are designed to carry out anti-access operations against major power adversaries like the United States. The main hypothetical enemy of China's anti-aircraft carrier operations is super-nuclear-powered aircraft carriers with a displacement of 100,000 tons like the Ford-class and Nimitz-class. Even quasi-aircraft carriers with a displacement of between 40,000 and 50,000 tons such as the American-class and Wasp-class far surpass the number of carrier-based aircraft, strike range, defense, and perception capabilities of Japan's Izumo and Kaga, which have a displacement of more than 20,000 tons and can only carry about 20 vertical short take-off and landing carrier-based aircraft. As you can imagine, the comparison of military power between China and Japan is like facing an opponent of different divisions, just as it is against a heavyweight champion and a weaker opponent, which makes China not particularly concerned about Japan's aircraft carrier program. In addition, Japan's location at the front of the first island chain and its lack of defense-in-depth and maneuver space make the Izumo and Kaga easy targets for hypersonic missiles, anti-ship ballistic missiles, and supersonic anti-ship missiles in wartime environments. In the face of this threat, there is no need to even use an overly advanced anti-ship **, ** like Dongfeng Express can deal with these two aircraft carriers.
Even the Eagle Strike series of anti-ship missiles in the hands of our navy is enough to make the Izumo and Kaga feel unbearable. Therefore, in terms of overall strength and geostrategic situation, it is indeed difficult to say how much of a frontal military threat Japan poses to China due to its limited national strength and relatively difficult geographical conditions, even if it is equipped with a small number of light aircraft carriers, and may even be equipped with medium-sized aircraft carriers of 4-60,000 tons in the future (the construction and equipment cycle of a medium-sized aircraft carrier will be at least more than ten years, and China's anti-aircraft carrier system may have developed to a completely new level at that time). However, the times have changed, and the glorious days of the Imperial Japanese Navy, which once roamed the Asia-Pacific region, are long gone. Even the USS Ford handed over to today's Japan cannot reverse this reality. However, it is undeniable that tactically, the commissioning of the two light aircraft carriers, the Izumo and Kaga, does provide more options for the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force.
For example, low-intensity confrontation in disputed waters, sending equipment, personnel, and materials to offshore islands and reefs far from the mainland and providing air cover, patrolling and escorting sea lines of communication, and cooperating with the U.S. Navy in carrying out blockade and interception missions will greatly improve the combat efficiency and deterrence effectiveness of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force. Japan's traditional style of being known for its undeclared surprise attacks, coupled with the support of high-performance carrier-based aircraft such as the F35B, is fully capable of causing a certain degree of harm to China's forward-deployed military targets and civilian routes. In the face of this reality, we must fully draw lessons from history and be vigilant and not take our carelessness lightly or be careless.