The index returned to 3,000 pointsManager: Anxious but confident in the long termChina** newspaper reporter Fang Li Zhang Yanbei.
After a month and a half, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3,000 points again. For a long time, the Shanghai Composite Index 3000 points has been an important integer threshold for the A** field, which is not only the psychological defense line of the long and short sides, but also the vane of market sentiment. Recently, many investors have revealed their hearts, and in the face of the index returning to a stalemate of 3,000 points, it is inevitable that as a ** manager, it is inevitable that they will be a little anxious. But they still firmly believe that surviving this period and persevering is victory. "The real feeling is that there is some suffering in the short term, and I am full of confidence in the long term. Guo Peng, manager of Yongying Qiyuan, said that in the process of market adjustment, it is a time window to reflect on its own investment system, position targets, and ability circles. Persistence is victory. Liang Pusen, manager of Qianhai Open Source, also said that in the face of the index returning to a stalemate of 3,000 points, sometimes there is a sense of tiredness and powerlessness. Liang Pusen further said that the current valuation of A-shares, whether it is a comparison of past valuations or valuations of other mainstream international indexes, the current valuation of A-shares is actually very low. "In addition to the frustration, we also quickly adjust our mood, because Biggs' next sentence is 'to be patient, but also to persevere, this is crucial.' The repeated up and down fluctuations are amazing, but as long as a holder holds on to his own for a long time, then no matter how the stock price fluctuates, the final return is always considerable. Liang Pusen said that he believes that in the current process of China's economic transformation, although the economic growth rate has fallen to a higher level, it is still at a high level, and he believes that after a series of domestic policies to stabilize growth, China's economy will gradually stabilize and recover, and it is also expected to stabilize and rebound. We also believe in the basic investment principles: long-term goals and diversification. Under the current market, many managers also said that they need to continue to learn and Xi improve. Jin Dalai, assistant manager of the equity research department of Golden Eagle, said that in the case of complex and changeable internal and external macro environments, the market as a whole has no obvious money-making effect, and it is more about grasping structural opportunities. In addition, due to the rapid changes in the market, the ability to trade has also been significantly challenged, and it is necessary to learn and Xi and respond to many important industrial trends and changes in the international situation that have not been seen in the history of the market in the past. Standing at 3000 points, **Manager Perception:We will strive to avoid risks, enhance confidence, and seek the direction of China's economic transformationIn early December, A-shares launched the second "3,000-point defense battle" this year. The index hovers around 3,000 points, and the active equity ** is facing challenges in the short term, and many ** holders are anxious, and the ** manager who is the "helm" also feels the same way. On the one hand, they are actively looking for ways to cope with anxiety, on the other hand, they are looking for investment opportunities, and more importantly, they are increasing their research and thinking about the industry and the companies they hold. Talking about the layout opportunities around 3,000 points, the interviewed** manager said that 3,000 points is only a point of the Shanghai Composite Index, and there are other more effective indicators such as price-earnings ratio and risk premium ratio to judge the position of the market. At present, in terms of price-to-earnings ratio or risk premium, it may be in a larger historical bottom area. Investing in equity assets in this position has a high cost performance. Increase research and thinking about companies in the industryIncreases the win rate and stability of your combinations
Guo Peng, manager of Yongying Qiyuan, said frankly that the market has fluctuated greatly in the past two years, the money-making effect is weak, and the feelings of holders are indeed not good. Managers are similarly anxious. He said that on the one hand, it is more difficult to find investment opportunities, and on the other hand, he empathizes with the anxiety of holders. The way to deal with this anxiety is to increase research and thinking about the industry and the companies holding positions, and strive to avoid risks and enhance confidence. Yuan Zhengguang, manager of Bodao's "far" series products, also said frankly that the active stock selection strategy has a tailwind period and a headwind period. Long-term investors have to deal with market volatility and style changes, and investors have to adapt and deal with them. His own solution is to adopt the strategy of "combining up and down, balanced and optimizing" to maintain the diversity of portfolio returns** and improve the winning rate and stability of the portfolio. In the face of short-term market pressure, his advice is not to blindly follow short-term style changes. "I think in long-term investing, you need to pursue the winning probability of a package decision, so that you can cross different market styles and accumulate good returns in the long run. Jin Dalai, assistant manager of the Golden Eagle Equity Research Department, suggested that future investment in A-shares may require more Xi and accumulation of learning and accumulation for the development of emerging industries. He further pointed out that although investors are prone to confusion and anxiety about future investment in medium and long-term economic factors such as population and real estate, investment should not ignore the positive changes in the short-term market, which may also generate corresponding opportunities. Liang Pusen, manager of Qianhai Open Source, also deeply touched this, he said that since the beginning of this year, many holders of the market have not felt very good. When the concept of value investing is frustrated in the short term, it is inevitable that people will be disappointed and doubtful. However, perhaps it is precisely because of the sluggishness and volatility of equity investment that the equity risk premium persists. In this situation, he himself sometimes feels very anxious, and needs to relieve the stress in various ways and strengthen his investment confidence by strengthening his research work. He encouraged himself with the words of Peter Lynch: "Whenever I feel anxious and disappointed about the big picture, I try to focus on the 'bigger picture.'" ”
In the short term, focus on economic stabilization and improvementLong-term focus represents the direction of China's economic transformation
Standing at the moment, investors can't help but ask, when the market returns to 3000 points, what should we pay attention to in addition to the point?Guo Peng, manager of Yongying Qiyuan, believes that we should pay attention to the structural changes in the market at present. "The market is currently highly polarized, the expectations of industries related to the economic cycle are more pessimistic, there is a possibility of reversal, and the industries that have nothing to do with the economic cycle are relatively optimistic, and the real growth needs to be screened. "The bigger factor influencing the market in the short term is whether economic expectations can stabilize and improve, even if economic demand is not significantly elastic, corresponding to the weight index may be flat, but the recovery of market sentiment and risk appetite will also be conducive to the growth technology sector that represents the future economic transformation of China's economy, or can have a good structure**." Jindalee takes a similar view. Luo Shuixing, chief macro analyst of Chuangjin Hexin**, pays more attention to the long-term planning of the capital market environment and the design of the trading system. He believes that A-shares should be a fair, just, open, disciplined, and well-designed incentive mechanism, which not only protects the financing function, but also protects the rights and interests of investors. Liang Pusen, manager of Qianhai Open Source, suggested that investors should be based on long-term value investment, focus on the growth of the company's intrinsic value in the medium and long term and the reasonable return generated by the return of value, and try to avoid participating in some pure speculative "drumming and passing flowers" games. "At present, because the endogenous driving force of economic growth is still weak, there is a certain time lag between the implementation of the steady growth policy and the boost to the real economy, and the disturbance of the overseas political and economic situation is still there, and the ** of A-shares may be full of twists and turns. Ordinary individual investors can make a moderate layout through regular investment every month. Liang Pusen said. Yuan Zhengguang judged from three dimensions that it is a good time to increase asset allocation: first, the current global interest rate is at a historical high, and it is about to usher in a turning point, which is good for equity assets;Second, the domestic economy has stabilized and improvedThird, market valuations are still at historically low levels, with high attractiveness and long-term investment valueFourth, the trend of transferring large categories of assets to first-class assets in the whole society is still in the early stage.
The price-performance ratio of stocks and bonds is at a historically low percentileEquity assets have a high investment value
As for whether the current 3000 points is a good time for the layout?What kind of products should be laid out?Managers also gave their own advice. Guo Peng, manager of Yongying Qiyuan, believes that the investment opportunities of about 3,000 points are indeed worth paying attention to, whether the market is the inflection point of the short cycle, or the starting point of the long cycle, the elongated cycle is over, and the investment cost performance is often higher after the market adjustment. He suggested that in terms of product selection, during the market adjustment period, you can choose products with a more stable style, and after the adjustment period is over, you can consider moderately flexible products. Luo Mercury pointed out that a simple point does not necessarily constitute the basis for judging the increase in positions, and it is necessary to make a comprehensive judgment based on the macro environment and the development of the industry. "At present, the market as a whole is in a relatively low position, the overseas economic momentum is slowing down, the US dollar interest rate hike cycle is basically over, the pressure of RMB depreciation has eased, and the domestic policies to resolve debt risks, stabilize the economy, and capital market reform have been launched one after another, and they can gradually increase their positions slightly. Luo Mercury analysis. Yuan Zhengguang cited a set of data to show that the current A** market has investment value. "We have made internal calculations that with the gradual decline of the market point, the positive return probability and yield of the allocation of equity assets are on an upward trend. In the vicinity of 3,200 points, 3,100 points, and 3,000 points in the Shanghai Composite Index, the return rate of the Wind Partial Stock Hybrid Index and holding it for one year is % respectively. Liang Pusen, manager of Qianhai Open Source, also bluntly said that the current 3000 points is indeed a good time for layout. "At the same point, it is more difficult for us to step into the same river of valuation. We feel that the current A-share layout is worth the layout, not because of the magic of the 3,000 point, but because after so many years, A-share listed companies have risen rapidly with the take-off of China's economy, and have provided us with many excellent companies for investment through the big waves. He further analyzed and pointed out that from the perspective of equity risk premium, the current risk premium is as high as 668%, more attractive than 9263% of the time is higher, and according to Professor Siegel and other scholars on more than 200 years of research on overseas mature capital markets, the equity risk premium is only between 3% and 5% most of the time, which shows that the current A-share investment cost performance is very high. "It's a good time. "If it is difficult for investors to judge which industries and which companies will be the first to stabilize and recover, they may wish to make a moderate layout through a wide base such as the CSI 300." "As Peter Lynch said, 'This is another way to throw a dart and pick the best, just buy the whole target – buy all the index constituents and you won't miss any of the best votes.'" He was likely. Editor: Xiaomo Review: Xu Wen has a sudden increase in patients recently!Doctor's reminder: reduce going out at night.