The end of the year is approaching, and the large-scale sprint war has started again, and short-term bonds, as the main force of the sprint, have once again started intensive issuance.
According to wind statistics, as of December 3, in the past month alone, about 30 short-term bonds** have been issued in the whole market. In the long run, after the equity market has been cold and the bond market has been adjusted for nearly two months, the short-term bonds positioned in "currency +" are undoubtedly the main force in the scale of this year, with a growth of more than 300 billion yuan during the year.
With the rise of the scale, the difficulty of obtaining excess returns is also increasing, and the traditional coupon strategy has been unable to meet the current environment and investor needs, and more and more bond managers have begun to pay attention to swing trading.
Since the beginning of this year, the scale has increased by more than 300 billion.
According to wind statistics, as of December 3, there were a total of 769 short-term pure debt types in the whole market (different shares are calculated separately), with a total scale of 9,1732.1 billion yuan, compared with 6144 at the beginning of the year7.5 billion yuan, an increase of 30284.6 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 50%.
Among them, a number of star bond managers** have won the favor of funds by virtue of their better performance and drawdown control, and the scale of management has continued to rise after a sharp rise in scale in the third quarter.
For example, the short-term and medium-term bonds of Taixin Tianxin** managed by Li Junjiang increased by about 15.8 billion yuan in the first three quarters, becoming the second largest short-term bond in the year. After the announcement of the purchase restriction of Taixin Tianxin's short-term bonds, on November 6, Li Junjiang's new ** Taixin Tianyi 90-day holding period bond was launched, which once again received high attention from funds, and the issuance ended the fundraising ahead of schedule after only 2 days.
For another example, the 120-day rolling short-term bonds of SPDB AXA Wenxin managed by Cao Zhiguo increased by more than 7 billion yuan in the first three quarters. Since November 20th, Cao Zhiguo's proposed manager of the SPDB AXA Yuexiang 30-day holding period bond** is being issued, and the brokerage China reporter learned from the channel that the ** has also been hotly sold.
Cao Zhiguo believes that since the beginning of this year, individual investors and asset management institutional investors have been keen to invest in short- and medium-term bonds, mainly for two reasons. On the one hand, since the beginning of this year, the market liquidity tone has remained reasonable and abundant, the monetary policy has cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates many times to release warmth, the overall yield of the bond market has declined, and the performance of the short and medium-term bond theme has been considerable, which has a certain attraction to investors. On the other hand, real estate has declined, weakened, bank fixed deposits in the central bank to guide the entity financing interest rate downward in the context of many times, a large number of funds from these traditional financial channels, fixed income has become an important channel to undertake these funds.
From the perspective of performance, most of the above-mentioned bond-based products that have been "snapped up" have good historical drawdowns and performance. Wind data shows that as of December 3, the yields of Taixin Tianxin's short-term bonds, SPDB AXA Wenxin's 120-day rolling short-term bonds, and Changxin's 30-day rolling holding this year, which have grown more this year, are respectively23%, and the maximum drawdown during the year was controlled at 0Within 2%.
Swing trading has become an important way to make money.
It is worth noting that with the rise of the scale, the difficulty of obtaining excess returns in the market is also increasing, and how to cope with the growth of scale and improve the level of income has become an important proposition in front of short-term debt managers.
Most of the short-term bonds are based on coupon strategies, and some managers may adopt a more extreme credit sinking strategy, but the uncertainty of credit sinking is high, which is also a certain deviation from the low-risk positioning of short- and medium-term bonds. A short-term debt manager said, "Of course, this does not mean that the credit sinking strategy must not appear in short-term debt products, but it is more suitable for a long-term holding period and a stable debt base. ”
Compared with the credit sinking strategy, there are also managers who pay more attention to the role of trading, and flexibly adjust the portfolio structure based on leverage and duration to improve the level of returns.
Cao Zhiguo believes that with the narrowing of credit spreads and the rise of the scale of urban investment bonds, the difficulty of implementing the coupon strategy of short- and medium-term bonds has increased significantly, and his investment strategy is to use high-grade credit bonds as the bottom position, adjust the portfolio structure through leverage and duration, and do a good job in swing trading to cope with continuous market changes.
Li Junjiang also pointed out that the new product will maintain the idea of selecting credit bonds as a whole, and the excess return part will be based on high-quality credit bonds, and the coupon income, interest rate spread, riding effect and liquidity will be selected comprehensivelyThe trading order dynamically adjusts the specific types of bonds according to the judgment of the fundamentals of the bond market and the shape of the yield curve, in order to obtain capital gains through swing trading.
How to do a good swing trading in bond investment?Cao Zhiguo believes that to do a good job in trading, we must first look at the macroeconomic trend, then observe the bond point, then track the monetary policy, then judge the relationship between market supply and demand, and finally understand the market sentiment. His investment strategy is to determine a better buying point first, and when the market yield has reached the range he expects, he will lay out some targets with weak liquidity and not easy to start in advance on the left side in advance, and then continue to increase positions after the trend on the right side comes out.
For example, after the unexpected interest rate cut in mid-August this year, the funding rate not only did not go down, but went up. We realised that this might be for exchange rate protection, so we quickly rebalanced our portfolios, reducing duration and leverage across the board, and avoiding the sharp bond market in the month. Cao Zhiguo gave an example.
Scarring effect protects against ** risk.
As the end of the year approaches, many investors are also beginning to worry about whether the bond market will repeat the unexpected adjustment in the fourth quarter of last yearIs there still an investment opportunity in short-term bonds**?
Cao Zhiguo pointed out that although the time is approaching the end of the year and the capital side is tight, the probability of a large ** occurrence in the bond market like in the fourth quarter of last year is relatively low.
On the one hand, the bond market does not have a major adjustment every year, and from the perspective of historical probability, the probability of this year's recurrence is low;On the other hand, the market has a scarring effect, after experiencing the bond market at the end of last year, whether it is a wealth management sub or a public offering institution, it will respond in advance, for example, the duration of this year's wealth management products has dropped sharply compared with last year, and a lot of hybrid valuation products have been issued, which will help smooth valuation fluctuations, and near the end of the year, the offensive nature of the public offering duration will not be very strong. Cao Zhiguo analyzed.
Combined with the market environment, Cao Zhiguo also noticed a number of differences between the end of this year and the end of last year: First, the interest rate of the 1-year certificate of deposit has continued to be higher than the 1-year MLF interest rate recently;Second, everyone's expectations for the market are weak as a whole, "so in general, the environment is different, the expectations are different, and the market points will be different." Cao Zhiguo said.
Gao Jie, the manager of Green's short-term and medium-term bonds, said: "Under the mode of chemical bonds and infrastructure investment to drive the economy, the central bank has repeatedly stated that the capital side will maintain a stable and loose situation, and it is expected that the bank's deposit interest rate will fall further, so as to drive the loan interest rate down, so that the entire interest rate center will go down." Moreover, next year will be the first year for the United States, external risks are relatively uncertain, and the macro environment is very favorable to bonds. ”
For the market opportunities of short and medium-term bonds, Gao Jie believes that the bonds have reached a cost-effective allocation range through nearly two months of adjustment, and the overall credit risk of the market has been rapidly reduced in the context of resolving the local debt crisis, which has played a positive role in the overall stability of credit bond investment. However, at the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to the price in the loose environment, as well as the change in the structure of market investors leading to an increase in the proportion of institutional behavior on the market, so interest rate bonds have long-term trend dividends, credit bonds have coupon advantages, especially the income fluctuations of short- and medium-term bonds will be reduced, and the income is sustainable, and the growth window should be seized.
Editor-in-charge: Wang Shidan |Review: Li Zhen |Supervisor: Wan Junwei.
*: Brokerage China).