After entering 2023, the transaction volume of the domestic property market will continue to be sluggish. According to the data, from January to November this year, the sales area of commercial housing in the country was about 121.2 billion square meters, down 233%；The sales volume of commercial buildings is about 1186 trillion yuan, down 266%。As of the end of November, the area of commercial housing for sale was about 55.2 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of 100%。
In addition, the number of second-hand housing listings also continues to rise. According to the data, the number of second-hand residential listings in 14 key cities monitored in November 2023 was **218%, a year-on-year increase of **9618%。Especially in first-tier cities, the number of second-hand houses listed in Shanghai has exceeded 180,000 units, and the number of second-hand houses listed in Beijing has exceeded 150,000 units.
At the same time, housing prices in various parts of the country are also constantly in the midst of **. Starting from the second half of 2021, housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities around Beijing represented by Zhuozhou, Yanjiao, and Langfang will appear**. Later, it ushered in the housing prices of second-tier cities such as Zhengzhou, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, and Wuhan. Since the beginning of this year, housing prices in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have also appeared significantly.
Taking Shanghai as an example, the city center has dropped from more than 100,000 square meters in 2021 to 6-70,000 square meters, and some even to more than 50,000 square meters. The "devaluation wave" of property has arrived. In this regard, some industry insiders reminded that starting in 2024, the "depreciation tide" of real estate may be more serious and will exceed expectations.
Many people may be surprised, isn't the real estate market entering an adjustment cycle in 2023?In 2024, the property market is likely to begin to "fully recover" after undergoing adjustments, and how can it be said that the "depreciation tide" of real estate next year will be more serious?In fact, there are three main reasons for judging that next year's "depreciation tide" of real estate will be more serious.
Reason 1: The property market regulation policy began to ferment
Since 2016, China has started real estate regulation and control until the end of 2021. This round of real estate regulation is mainly to curb investment in speculation and truly realize "housing is not speculation". In 2021 alone, the number of domestic real estate regulation will be as high as more than 650 times. After a long period of regulation, once the real estate market has a historic turning point, it is difficult to change this trend.
In addition, domestic housing prices have risen from 1998 to 2021, which has risen for more than 20 years, during which there has been no decent adjustment except for 2008, 2011, 2014, etc., when house prices have appeared slightly. Therefore, there is a "depreciation tide" in real estate this year, and next year will also be a high probability that the trend will continue this year, and even the adjustment momentum will be more ferocious than this year.
Reason 2: The income of ordinary people has decreased, which cannot support high housing prices
Before the epidemic, the income of the domestic people was not very high, but they were confident in their future income growth expectations. Many families buy a house to preserve and increase the value of their assets. After three years of the epidemic, not only is it difficult for most people to support the current high housing prices due to reduced incomes or unemployment, but people are also cautious about future income growth expectations. Many families are now more and more rational about buying a house, and they will choose whether to buy a house according to their actual situation, rather than buying a house impulsively as in the past.
Reason 3: Buyer confidence has yet to be restored
Since the beginning of this year, leading real estate companies such as Evergrande Real Estate and Country Garden have defaulted on their debts, as well as a large number of unfinished buildings. As a result, many home buyers' confidence in the future real estate market has been severely frustrated. Many people are worried that if they buy an off-plan property, once the developer has an unfinished building, it will suffer a significant loss. Therefore, many home buyers will take a wait-and-see attitude towards the current real estate market.
At the same time, due to the fact that in the past two years, developers have generally tightened the capital chain in their hands, so they often cut corners and shoddy when building commercial housing. In this way, even if there is no unfinished building in the newly built commercial housing, the quality of the house is also worrying, and I am afraid that the quality of the house will be problematic in 10-20 years. Obviously, it will not happen overnight for home buyers' confidence to fully recover, and it will take a long time.