From 2024 onwards, the tide of real estate depreciation may intensifyIndustry experts warn that it may be more than expected
Since the beginning of this year, the transaction volume of China's real estate market has been at a low level. Statistics show that from January to November, the sales area of commercial real estate in the country was 121.2 billion square meters, a decrease of 23 over the same period last year3%；The revenue from the sale of commercial housing was 1186 trillion, a decrease of 26 from the same period last year6%。As of the end of November, commercial real estate sales amounted to approximately 550 million square meters, an increase of 10 percent compared to the same period last year0%。
In addition, the number of listings for second-hand homes is also rising. The data shows that in 22 major 14 major cities, the number of monitored second-hand housing transactions increased by 2 from the previous month18%, an increase of 96 from the same period last year18%。Especially in first- and second-tier cities, the policy of "only looking at houses, not loans" is implemented, for example, the number of second-hand housing listings in Shanghai has exceeded 180,000, while the number of second-hand housing listings in Beijing has reached more than 150,000.
At this time, housing prices across the country are declining. From the second half of 2021, real estate** in the third- to fourth-tier Beijing areas such as Zhuozhou, Yanjiao, and Langfang have declined. This is followed by Zhengzhou, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, and Wuhan, which are all second-tier cities. Since this year, housing in first- and second-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen has dropped significantly.
Take Shanghai as an example, the average price of the city center has dropped from more than 100,000 per square meter in 2021 to 10,000 square meters, and in some places it has dropped to more than 50,000. The "depreciation tide" of the property market has come. In this regard, some industry experts said: from 2021 onwards, the "depreciation tide" of real estate may become more severe, or even exceed expectations.
Some people may wonder, isn't this year's property market already in a stage of correction?Then, after this round of **, by 2024, the real estate market will "fully recover", so will the real estate "depreciation wave" next year be more intense?In fact, from three perspectives, the next round of real estate "depreciation" will be further intensified.
Reason 1: Regulatory measures for the real estate market are in the pipeline.
Since 2016, the state has strictly regulated the property market until the end of 2021. The focus of the property market policy is to curb speculation and speculation, and earnestly implement the requirement of "housing for living, not speculation". In 2021 alone, the number of property market adjustments nationwide exceeded 650. After a period of adjustment, when the property market ushered in a historic turning point, this downward momentum is difficult to reverse.
In addition, China's real estate **, from 1998 to 2021, for more than 20 years, except for a few slight declines, there has been no significant **. Therefore, this time the "depreciation tide" of the real estate market is likely to continue, and it will become more and more violent.
Reason 2: The income of ordinary people has fallen and cannot support the high **.
Before the outbreak of this crisis, the wages of Chinese people were not high, but they were still very confident in their income. Many families buy property in order to see the value and appreciation of their property. After three years of the pandemic, most people have lost their wages or lost their jobs, and the current high housing prices are no longer sustainable, and at the same time, they have become cautious about future income growth**. Nowadays, many families are starting to become more sensible, no longer on a whim as before, but decide whether to buy a house according to their own reality.
Reason 3: Homebuyers still need to boost their confidence.
This year, leading companies such as Evergrande Real Estate and Country Garden have defaulted on their arrears, and there are still many unfinished projects. This has dealt a big blow to many buyers' confidence in the future property market. A lot of people are worried that if they buy an off-plan property and the developer doesn't finish it, then they will suffer a lot of losses. Therefore, many buyers will have a play-watching mentality about the current property market.
In addition, in the past two years, most real estate companies have fallen into a shortage of funds, resulting in them using some inferior means when building houses. Therefore, even if there is no unfinished building, the quality of the house is still worrying, and after ten to twenty years, the quality of the house will be problematic. It is clear that a full recovery in buyer confidence will not happen overnight and will take a long time.