It is said that where there are people, there are rivers and lakes. **It is the rivers and lakes of stockholders, where you will meet all kinds of people, bought all kinds of stocks, and in the end, some people return in despair, a few people have achieved fame, and more people are still seeking up and down in the rivers and lakes. Today, I will talk to you about my investment experience and mental journey in the past 14 years, and I hope to inspire you who are new to the market, so that you can take fewer detours in this river and lake.
Before I begin, I would like to ask a few questions, and with these questions, I hope that reading my experience will help you find the answers.
1.Is it strength or luck to make money in **?
2.Can you make a fortune through the grapevine?
3.Is value investing really good?
4.How to grasp the bull market when it comes?
5.Is technical analysis useful at all?Is there a perfect indicator of a 100%** trend?
6.How to survive in ** for a long time?
7.What is it that is essentially fried?
(1) Initial entry**
In 2007, I opened my own first-class account. When I returned from studying abroad that year, I was young and full of confidence and entered ** with money. In 2007, a milestone year in the history of A-shares, the ceiling of 6,000 points on the Shanghai Stock Exchange has not been exceeded. Hundreds of millions of shareholders are frantically pouring in, basically buying everything to make money, and everyone thinks they are the god of stocks, including me, of course.
It didn't take long for the market to teach me my first lesson. In 2008, not only did he return all the money he earned by luck, but he even lost half of his principal. Fortunately, I didn't have much money in my hands when I was young, so I should buy a lesson if I lost it. This loss experience has taught me to be in awe of the market, to learn to be humble in the face of the market, and to distinguish whether it is luck or strength to make money.
(ii) Lessons learned from the Information Unit
After experiencing losses, I went to work in a brokerage, and at that time I entered the largest ** business department in Shenzhen, which is known as the largest in the country, thinking that I could at least be close to the company of professionals or a little gossip. But the ideal is very plump, the reality is very skinny, the experience of the brokerage tells me that some people do marketing marketing and remarketing every day, and there are very few people who really make money by **. The gossip is all over the place, but it's hard to tell if it's true or not, and even if the real news reaches your ears, you've already missed the opportunity.
The most impressive news stock for me was a Hong Kong stock. At that time, I heard the news that it would rise to 1 yuan, and I was at 06** rose to 09 did not sell, and then there was news of self-theft, and the suspension of the investigation was for several months. A few months later, the invoicing stock price was one to 02. I had completely lost confidence in this company at that time and waited until 0Around 4, the warehouse was cleared. But in the next two years, this **all the way** rose to more than 20, and the lowest point rose more than 100 times, and I lost an opportunity to achieve financial freedom.
The so-called news stocks, when the news reaches you, I don't know how many hands have passed, not necessarily the right time to intervene, even if the news is true, the effective time period of the news and the time we participate in it is not known, so the fundamental and technical analysis is still indispensable, and the operation does not keep up with the news stocks can make you lose money.
(3) Value investment
After being hurt by news stocks, I think fundamental analysis is king. After I left the brokerage, I worked in sell-side analysis at one of the world's top foreign financial institutions. As a result of my work, I became a staunch value investor and spent a lot of energy analyzing the fundamentals. Before 2014, the *** was very average, because the quality of the choice was good, and the long-term holding of shares, basically could make money, but a whole year may only wait until one or two **, the overall rate of return is not high.
In the fourth quarter of 2014, the bull market finally came, and the popularity of opening an account at that time was simply hard to find, and it took several hours to queue up early in the morning to open an account. Chunjiang plumbing duck prophet, the financial industry can still clearly feel that the spring breeze of the bull market has come. At the beginning of the bull market, the ** sector took the lead in leading big finance forward, and the blue chips followed later, watching the other ** rise, and the GEM ticket in my hand did not move for a long time, which was too scratchy.
Despite this, at that time, I still maintained the concept of value investing all along, waited patiently, and missed the first wave of big finance and blue chips. The wait was not in vain, and the GEM also ushered in a general rise in early 2015. The speed of the bull market in 2015 was also very amazing, basically 5 trading days a week were sharply raised, and my ** market value tripled in a short time.
Can you make a profit just by analyzing the fundamentals to do value?Yes, if your money has no time limit and can be kept in the market for a long, long time, then from the perspective of the law that the valuation will eventually reflect its fundamentals, value investing will eventually win. There are two key points to the success of value investing, one is the ability to select stocks, and the other is that confidence and patience are enough to beat time, but most people lose to time.
(4) The bull market is deflated
In June 2015, ** began, at that time I had no sense of risk, or adhere to the concept of value investment to continue to hold shares, suffered countless falling limits. At that time, every night when I closed my eyes and thought about the next day's drop limit, the account assets were 10% less, and I couldn't run away if I wanted to, and I often watched it until dawn, and that feeling is still fresh in my memory.
The profits accumulated over the past few years are returned to the market within two or three months. This wave of damage value is really large, I am heartbroken, and I have cleared all the **. No, I thought about it a lot, reflecting on why I lost moneyIs there something wrong with my value investing philosophy?
After thinking about it for a few months, I summarized several mistakes I made in this wave, one is that the position is too passive, and I do not take the initiative to follow the rhythm of the market rotation to expand the benefits, and the second is that I did not take profit in a timely manner. Fourth, there is no risk awareness, there is no take-profit and stop-loss strategy, and the risk comes all by hard bearing, and the fifth is that the heavy position makes me subjectively think that the bull market has no end.
(5) Fight again**
At the end of 2016, I decided to fight again**, when I quit my job full-time**. Because of the bull market in 2015, I relied solely on fundamental analysis to defeat from the first battle, and my research direction began to turn to technical analysis, what ** tactics, volume and price, MACD, RSI, etc., and all the theories related to ** have been learned. While learning and practicing, I found that the time lag of technical analysis leads to no technical indicator that can be 100% generalized**, and I can't help but ask myself, is technical analysis useful?
Probability theory and quantum functions inspired me to think outside the mindset of pursuing perfect technical indicators, in the process, I understood that the trajectory of the track is just a probability, it is impossible to be 100% accurate, and technical analysis is just a tool to help you perceive market changes, just like a ruler to measure the length, different technical indicators provide different measurement dimensions.
All kinds of indicators are records of trading behavior at the current point in time or in the past period, relatively speaking, they reflect relatively micro information, and these are not comprehensive enough for future trends. Later, I also learned the relevant knowledge of morphology, such as Dow theory, wave theory, Fibonacci division theory, entanglement theory and other classical theories, and learned to use the law of trend to analyze and predict the short, medium and long-term trend of **, and then combined with technical indicators to judge the time point of the turnaround.
(6) The way to survive
*It's a very complicated thing in itself, don't think about it simply. What to choose?When to buy and sell?These two questions alone can stump 90% of people. Different methods need to be used in each key link, not only need to use economic knowledge to analyze the macroeconomic situation, usually pay close attention to the national economic policy and industrial policy to analyze the industry cycle and situation, but also combine some classical trend theory to predict, plate and trend to determine the general direction, and finally use technical indicator analysis to choose the best time to intervene and sell.
A combination of methods is the only way to maximize your chances of winning. And the win rate is only the basis for the ultimate long-term profit. Since it is a probability event, it will definitely encounter a small probability of error, and risk control is particularly important at this time. Risk control is a kind of awareness, like the reins of a horse, which can be pulled all the time to keep the right direction forward. In order to qualitatively improve the dimension of thinking about trading, we should add this kind of awareness to trading. Through my own continuous learning, practice and exploration, I slowly summed up a set of my own trading system. The market is constantly changing, thinking and logic must change with the market, and the trading system also needs to be improved and perfected in order to continue to survive in the market. (7) Cognition
*What the hell are you frying?You always hear others say**How to make money, in fact, most of them are showing off one of their money-making experiences or a period of time, after all, it is not easy to lose money every time you buy**. But in terms of long-term total profits, more than 90% of people lose money. So the short-term speculation may just be our luck, and in the long run, in the final analysis, it is our cognition that is speculated. ** It is a channel to transform our understanding of the world's macro and micro operation laws and their own comprehensive capabilities in all aspects into specific profits. People can only earn money within the scope of their own cognition, and money beyond the scope of cognition will eventually be returned by strength even if they are earned by luck.
In fact, not only in **, but even more so in life, the decision to sell once is actually like a microcosm of every major investment process in life. It's just that the **of** and sell operations are too easy, so many people ignore the need for careful thinking and decision-making before this simple click operation. After all, there is no such thing as an easy word in the adult world.