Japan was once the first country in the world to develop and equip regular aircraft carriers, and in World War II, it launched the largest aircraft carrier decisive battle in the history of human naval warfare with the U.S. Navy in the Pacific. Although Japan's achievements in aircraft carrier space have faded due to its defeat in the war, nearly 80 years later, after a series of well-planned initiatives, Japan is only one step away from regaining its aircraft carrier dream. Recently, Japan announced that the second ship of the Izumo-class *** carrier ship of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, which has completed the first phase of aircraft carrier transformation, plans to go to the United States in 2024 for take-off and landing tests and qualification certification of F35B carrier-based aircraft to obtain the practical operational capability of operating fixed-wing carrier-based aircraft. In 2026, the second phase of aircraft carrier transformation will begin, including the improvement of supporting software facilities such as communication and command systems, and finally complete all aircraft carrier transformation work in 2027 and deliver it to the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force. The Izumo, the first ship of the Izumo-class mothership, is slightly behind schedule, but it is also expected to be commissioned in 2027.
At the same time, the 42 F35B carrier-based aircraft procured for the Izumo and Kaga will be delivered in 2024 and the first six will be formed as a temporary test squadron for the operation and combat training of carrier-based pilots. Thus, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force will have two aircraft carriers capable of real combat in 4 years, which can be said to be a reunion of the dream of an aircraft carrier for the "Imperial Navy". In recent years, in response to the U.S. rebalance to the Asia-Pacific region, Japan has significantly increased its military spending (military spending increased by 24% in 2023 and will also maintain double-digit growth in 2024). The move aims to break with its so-called exclusive defense policy and aggressively develop offensive military capabilities, including its own hypersonic missiles and the introduction of Tomahawk long-range cruise missiles from the United States. In addition, Japan is also actively promoting the aircraft carrier program, and the reconstruction of the Cloud and Kaga is only the first step. This series of initiatives shows the ambition of Japan. Many people are concerned about the potential threat to China posed by Japan's aircraft carrier program. For this problem, we need to analyze it from both strategic and tactical levels.
** It was once said: "Strategically we must despise all enemies, and tactically we must value all enemies." The same theory applies here. At the strategic level, China's current naval and air combat forces and long-range strike systems are designed to carry out anti-access operations against adversaries like the United States. The main hypothetical enemy of China's anti-aircraft carrier operations is 100,000-ton super-nuclear-powered aircraft carriers such as the Ford-class and Nimitz-class, or 4-50,000-ton quasi-aircraft carriers such as the American-class and Wasp-class. The number of carrier-based aircraft, strike range, defense, and perception capabilities far exceed those of light carriers such as Japan's Izumo and Kaga, which can carry only about 20 vertical short take-off and landing carrier-based aircraft. As you can imagine, I'm not afraid to face a heavyweight champion, let alone deal with something like a lightning five-in-a-row. Japan's geographical location puts it at the forefront of the first island chain, lacking depth of defense and room for maneuver. In a wartime environment, Japan's Izumo and Kaga light carriers are easy targets for hypersonic missiles, anti-ship ballistic missiles, and supersonic anti-ship missiles.
Against threats of this level, even relatively low-level anti-ship **, such as the YJ-series anti-ship missiles, are enough to pose a serious threat to this aircraft carrier. Therefore, taking into account the overall strength balance and geostrategic situation, taking into account Japan's limited national strength and relatively difficult geographical conditions, it will be very difficult for Japan to pose a major frontal military threat to China, even if Japan is equipped with a small number of light aircraft carriers, or even 4-60,000 ton medium aircraft carriers that may be equipped in the future (and China's anti-aircraft carrier system is also developing). Time has changed, and the glory of the Imperial Japanese Navy has passed, and even the handover of the Ford-class nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to today's Japan cannot change this reality. However, it is undeniable that the commissioning of the Izumo and Kaga does give the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force more room for tactical options. For example, in low-intensity confrontations, the transportation of equipment, personnel, and materials to offshore islands and reefs far from the mainland, the provision of air cover, the patrol and escort of sea lines of communication, and the cooperation with the U.S. Navy in carrying out tasks such as blockade and interception can significantly improve the combat efficiency and deterrence effectiveness of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force.
Japan's traditional style of assault is characterized by undeclared war, and with the support of high-performance carrier-based aircraft such as the F35B, they are fully capable of causing a certain degree of harm to China's forward-deployed military targets and civilian routes. We must learn from the lessons of history and not be careless or take them lightly.