On December 4, 2023, an ordinary Monday, in the countryside, it was still chickens and dogs barking.
But this morning's financial market is not "ordinary" at all, and the opening of the international market in the morning soared by nearly 60 US dollars, setting a new recordFrom 07:16 to 07:17 on December 4, Beijing time, 2,627 lots were traded instantaneously on the trading board within one minute, with a total contract value of 5$5.3 billion. **There is also a strong rush action.,But the strength is much weaker than the**.,But,Overall, it's also a synchronous relationship!
The reason for this is that most of the logic in the market is precipitated in the direction of "global economic slowdown, low interest rate environment, geopolitical risks and continued gold hoarding by central banks", if you look at the general trend, these factors are indeed related;However, this kind of short-term burst *** often has "timely dynamic news" derivation, either capital sentiment, or strong market sentiment points;Therefore, for the reason for the surge in international gold prices this morning, Lekong personally thinks that it is better to think about the comparison in the following direction"Pragmatic"!
Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his speech on Friday eveningTrying to push back on investors' strong expectations for a rate cut in the first half of 2024, but the market is more violentExpectations of interest rate cuts have also been further amplified.
According to market dynamics, investors are currently expecting the Federal ReserveRate cuts could begin as soon as March next year。And the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has increased from 50% to 80%, and even some market participants have fully priced in a rate cut in May, becauseTraders think Powell's remarks are balanced enough!
Of course, in this battle of remarks, Powell's way of speaking is also relatively firmHe said policymakers expect to keep interest rates steady at the Dec. 12-13 meeting to allow more time to assess the economy. He added: "The FOMC has gone so fast and is now moving cautiously forward because the risk of under-tightening and over-tightening is becoming more balanced." ”
However, investors seem to pay more attention to his slightly "**" tone in his rhetoric, for example"Policy is now "in restrictive territory" and the full impact of previous rate hikes is still playing out in the economy"!
So, it's fitting to summarize Powell's remarks on Friday by borrowing a quote from Peter Boockvar, the author of The Bock ReportPowell tried to fight back, but the effect only lasted for a few seconds. The market believes that the Fed has completed raising interest rates and will cut them next year, and his speech today was deliberate. I believe he wants to keep the market on the sidelines. ”
Most investors believe that the Fed's interest rate hike cycle is over, and the dollar index will be suppressed by the market in the next period of time, and the decline in the exchange rate will also put pressure on the dollarCoupled with the high level of U.S. bond yields, the liquidity of funds will inevitably accelerate, and **, as well as U.S. stocks, RMB and other fields are currently the best capital pools;Therefore, ** has continued to soar, and even today's domestic *** sector has benefited from the leading **.
**Record high