Abstract: According to incomplete statistics from the battery network, in November, 32 new investment projects were announced by domestic battery new energy industry chain enterprises, of which 26 projects announced the investment amount, and the overall investment was as high as 1046$2.4 billion.
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in November, the monthly production and sales of new energy vehicles in China exceeded one million for the first time, respectively, completing 10740,000 and 10260,000 units, up 392% and 30%, with a market share of 345%。From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 84260,000 and 83040,000 units, up 345% and 367%, with a market share of 308%。
In November, the popularity of the auto market continued, with the help of consumption waves such as the "Double 11" promotion, the demand for car purchases was further released, and the market performance continued to improve and exceed expectations.
According to the data of the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in November, the total sales volume of China's power and energy storage batteries was 842GWh, of which, the sales volume of power batteries is 681GWh, energy storage battery sales are 160GWh, the sales growth rate of energy storage batteries is slightly faster than that of power. From January to November, the total cumulative sales of power and energy storage batteries in China were 6418gwh。Among them, the cumulative sales of power batteries were 5541GWh, the cumulative sales volume of energy storage batteries is 876gwh。
Benefiting from the continuous growth of new energy vehicle sales and the rapid development of energy storage applications, the demand for battery installed capacity has increased significantly, and battery industry chain enterprises are accelerating the pace of capacity expansion, including lithium batteries, battery materials, new battery technology and other fields of investment enthusiasm continues to grow.
According to incomplete statistics from the battery network, in November, 32 new investment projects were announced by domestic battery new energy industry chain enterprises, of which 26 projects announced the investment amount, and the overall investment was as high as 10462.4 billion yuan, an increase compared with the previous month (in October, domestic battery new energy industry chain enterprises have announced 24 new investment projects, of which 21 projects have announced the investment amount, and the overall investment is as high as 8191.2 billion yuan).
Not only worried about surplus, but also busy expanding production
For the energy industry, cyclical change is an inescapable phenomenon.
Since the beginning of 2021, the new energy industry has entered a new round of high prosperity cycle, and it can be seen from the sales of new energy vehicles, the installed capacity of power batteries, and the pace of expansion of leading enterprises. However, after entering 2023, although the industry as a whole is improving, with various factors such as overcapacity and involution of raw material enterprises, a new round of industry reshuffle has begun to adjust, and "difficulty in making money" has become the norm.
The industry is still a good industry, but after a cycle of savage growth, it always has to go through a painful adjustment period. In the cold winter, people who prepare down jackets in advance will have a comfortable and comfortable life. Recently, Huang Jihong of Hangsheng Lithium Energy said in an exchange with the battery network, "In the future, I hope that this industry can enter a benign competitive situation, and promote the progress of the entire industry by continuously improving its competitiveness, rather than blindly fighting the first war, which is not a long-term practice."
The battery network noticed that in the first half of this year, the inventory pressure of battery companies increased, and many companies took the initiative to reduce production to digest inventory, resulting in a sharp decline in the capacity utilization rate of battery companies. However, even in the period of involution and overall pressure on performance, the good news of domestic battery new energy industry chain enterprises expanding production and signing contracts is still continuous.
Through the above-mentioned **, it can be found that the domestic battery new energy industry chain investment projects in November are still mainly around the battery field, and mainly energy storage batteries. Among the 32 projects included in the statistics, there are 18 battery projects, accounting for 56%;Among them, there are 3 projects with an investment amount of more than 10 billion yuan, namely the Ordos Leitian shared energy storage power station and the water-soluble lithium-sulfur power battery new energy industrial park project (investment and financing of about 28 billion yuan), the square aluminum shell lithium iron phosphate energy storage battery industry project of Zhongneng Ruixin (13 billion yuan) and the sodium-ion battery production base project jointly built by Huaihai Holding Group and Fodi Battery (10 billion yuan).
At present, battery manufacturers are stepping up preparations for the production capacity competition, the head enterprises are throwing tens of billions of dollars, and the second and third tier companies are catching up quickly, including many new players are also speeding up, after all, effective production capacity will be one of the standards for measuring the production strength of a battery enterprise in the future.
In addition, in addition to battery projects, in the field of materials and equipment, there are also a number of projects with an investment of billions of yuan. For example, Zhongyi Technology and Baoji Industrial Development Group invested 6 billion yuan to build an 80,000-ton advanced electronic materials industrial baseHantang Senyuan 3.5 billion yuan (anode) new material industrial base project landed in Xi'an, Shaanxi;China Metallurgical Investment Group plans to invest 5 billion yuan in the construction of 5GWh energy storage equipment manufacturing projects with an annual output.
It should be noted that there is still some uncertainty about whether all the planned production capacity will be successfully landed: first, it puts forward high requirements for the financial strength of the enterprise;Second, the market changes at any time, and the actual amount of construction is highly uncertain.
The key words for 2023 are structural overcapacity and destocking". Wu Hui, general manager of the research department of Yiwei Economic Research Institute and president of China Battery Industry Research Institute, recently analyzed that in terms of production capacity, according to the latest data of EVTANK, as of the end of June 2023, the actual production capacity of 46 global power (energy storage) battery companies included in EVTANK's statistical scope has reached 23836GWh, of which 788% of the production capacity comes from China, and the overseas power battery production capacity accounts for only 212%。By the end of 2026, the planned total production capacity of the 46 companies included in the statistics will reach 6,7300GWh, an increase of 182 compared to the actual production capacity in the first half of 20233%。
There is a high probability that this production capacity will be put into production, and many companies have already started construction. However, there will also be a process of dynamic adjustment, such as in the case of the overall surplus of the industry, and some projects will not be built. Wu Hui said.
The battery network noted that recently, Tiannai Technology has announced that the company intends to set up a subsidiary in Pengzhou City, under the jurisdiction of Chengdu City, Sichuan Province, and invest in the construction of Tiannai Technology Western Base Project, which plans to build carbon nanotubes and related composite products production projects and R&D centers, with a total investment of about 3 billion yuan in fixed assets.
However, after the signing of the investment cooperation agreement, the signed agreement could not be carried out as expected, and could not meet Tiannai Technology's plan for capacity expansion, which was not conducive to the company's long-term development strategy. Considering the progress of the company's product production capacity layout, after careful analysis, and the people of Pengzhou City reached a consensus that the company intends to terminate the signed "Project Investment Agreement" and related supplementary agreements with the people of Pengzhou City, and intends to sign the "Contract Termination Agreement".
Some industry insiders said that since the beginning of this year, the upstream raw materials have continued to decline and the driving cells have declined, and the crazy expansion will accelerate the degree of overcapacity in the market, and the industry knockout competition will come sooner. Therefore, battery industry chain enterprises should appropriately deploy production capacity and be wary of blind expansion and overheating of investment.
Of course, on the topic of battery overcapacity, there are also many companies that respond that advanced capacity will never be overcapacity.
According to the analysis of the research report of the Pacific ** a few days ago, at present, many lithium battery companies will release production capacity in 2023-2024, and they are facing overcapacity. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) requires that the pace of IPOs be tightened in stages, a pre-communication mechanism will be implemented for large-scale refinancing of large-capitalization listed companies, and listed companies will be guided to reasonably determine the scale of refinancing. We expect that under the new policy, the planning of new or expanded production capacity in the industrial chain may be delayed or cancelled, and ineffective capacity expansion is expected to be curbed, accelerating the clearance of excess capacity, and benefiting leading enterprises with high-quality production capacity.
In addition, "from the perspective of the main engine factory, they are gradually expanding the circle of friends of the first business and increasing the proportion of two and three supply." Wu Hui recently analyzed that under the influence of multiple factors, the competition pattern of enterprises is and continues to develop and change: with the gradual maturity of the industry, the gradual intensification of competition, the pattern of monopoly competition will be broken, and it is foreseeable that the market share of the second echelon of battery companies will gradually increaseIn addition, battery companies, including vehicle companies, foreign-funded enterprises, and new entrants, will also share a certain market in the existing power battery share.
Innovative technology, overseas expansion
For different application scenarios, the mass production of new batteries is also accelerating. The battery network has noticed that in addition to the production capacity advantage, in the current market environment, the introduction cycle of new technologies is an element that the market pays more attention to.
On December 12, at the 4th Battery Day of SVOLT Energy, Yang Hongxin, Chairman and CEO of SVOLT Energy, mentioned: "In the environment of overcapacity structure and rapid decline in battery technology, the operation of many enterprises is facing huge challenges, although there are many structural problems in the entire market in 2024, there are many volumes, but we are determined, identify the direction, and strengthen our steps, as long as we work hard, we will be successful, provided that we achieve product leadership through technological innovation." ”
In the past one or two years, the "involution" of batteries in various application scenarios has been intensifying, from technology to characteristics to development, including the pace of innovation and research and development of various new battery technologies has gradually accelerated, bringing a new variable to the reshaping of the industrial pattern, sodium batteries, solid-state batteries and other related projects have been frequently implemented.
In November, a number of sodium battery industry chain related projects were also signed. On the morning of November 28, Liaoning Meicai New Materials, a subsidiary of Meilian New Materials, and Liaoning Haicheng City jointly signed the "Investment Promotion Agreement", and the two sides cooperated to build a cathode material production base with an annual output of 180,000 tons of battery-grade Prussian blue (white) sodium battery, with a total investment of 2.5 billion yuan, and the project was constructed in three phases
On the afternoon of November 18, Huaihai Holding Group signed a sodium-ion battery project with Fodi Battery, with a planned total investment of 10 billion yuan and an annual production capacity of 30GWh, which will build the world's largest mini-vehicle sodium electric system supplier
On November 14, the signing ceremony of the Sinosodium Times project was held, with a total investment of 7400 million yuan, covering an area of 100 acres, the main construction content is an annual output of 25GWh sodium-ion battery and annual output of 5GWh pack+ energy storage;
On November 11, Toncin Environmental Protection announced that it signed an "Investment Cooperation Agreement" with the Management Committee of Anhui Hanshan Economic Development Zone, planning to invest about 600 million yuan to build an annual output of 20,000 tons of sodium-ion battery cathode material project in two phases in Anhui Hanshan Economic Development Zone, which is widely used in low-speed vehicles, starting power supply and energy storage
On November 8, the signing ceremony of the cooperation project between the Management Committee of Henan Shangqiu Yushang Economic and Technological Development Zone and Runya Science and Technology was held, and the two sides will jointly build a 7GWh sodium-ion battery manufacturing project with a total investment of 4.2 billion yuan.
Under the trend of global carbon neutrality, the demand for batteries is increasingly strong, but lithium batteries themselves have shortcomings such as high production costs and shortage of key raw material reserves, so the development of sodium batteries is of great strategic significance for China to reduce China's dependence on foreign lithium resourcesAt the same time, in the context of the rapid development of energy storage and low-speed electric vehicles, sodium batteries have more advantages, and the sodium battery industry has also ushered in a historical opportunity for rapid development.
In addition to the R&D layout of new battery technology, overseas expansion has also become a key step for industrial chain enterprises to become bigger and stronger.
The new energy vehicle industry has certain similarities with the photovoltaic industry, which is reflected in China's great production capacity and cost advantages, and has strong competitiveness in the global market. Xu Fei, general manager of Polyfluorine New Energy Technology, recently analyzed, "The difference is that China's new energy vehicle industry chain is not highly dependent on overseas markets, after nearly two years of rapid expansion, overcapacity is more serious, and the consumption growth rate has slowed down in the case of relative saturation of the domestic market." ”
Recently, overseas countries have intensively introduced support policies for the battery new energy industry. On December 13, South Korea, Indonesia and Japan simultaneously issued heavy incentive policies for the battery new energy industry. South Korea unveiled a 38 trillion won ($29 billion) fiscal plan aimed at helping local EV battery makers diversify their chains over the next five yearsIndonesia** has announced a revised incentive policy for EV manufacturing, which will allow EV producers who commit to building factories in the country to receive incentives including import tax relief, luxury goods sales tax exemption and regional tax reductionJapan** plans to provide 10-year tax incentives to boost mass production in five sectors, including electric vehicle production and semiconductor equipment manufacturing.
In Xu Fei's view, if China's new energy vehicle and battery industry wants to maintain stable growth, it must expand overseas markets, and at the same time, it will also increase its dependence on overseas markets.
At present, domestic mainstream new energy vehicle companies have successively completed the overseas layout of new energy vehicles, and the overseas market is about to become the next battlefield. In the long run, whether it is the domestic or overseas market, the focus of the enterprise layout is to strive for customers, for the battery new energy industry chain enterprises, the important thing is how to consolidate the market position, enhance the core competitiveness, and ensure that they do not fall behind in the new round of competition.