Huawei plans to ship 200 million smartphones in 2025, and foreign media are worried about chip problems
According to related news reports, Huawei is restructuring its consumer business group, positioning smartphones as its main business, and preparing to ship 200 million mobile phones by 2025.
What is the concept of shipping 200 million units a year?
For the whole year of 2022, mobile phone shipments will reach 13500 million, of which 5G mobile phones account for half. Samsung sells 26.9 billion units, ranking first;Apples sold for 22.6 billion units, ranking second;Xiaomi sold 15.3 billion units, ranking third.
Sales of 200 million units entered"Top three", back to the peak of 2019.
However, some time ago Huawei was included in the list of the US Department of Commerce"Entity Inventory"Chips, technology, components are all subject to significant constraints – can it achieve this?
We know that the three major components of smart phones: chips, systems, and screens, have a deep gap in technology, patents, ecology, etc., which many companies have been trying to break through for many years.
Huawei, just because it couldn't find a chip foundry, fell off the altar and fell to"others"。Nowadays, faced"Cut off supply"pressure, back to the top, is it possible?
Can Huawei aggregate mobile phones"The Big Three"？
If you want to achieve an annual output of 200 million units, you must first have a product, right?At the very least"Three major pieces"Do it well!
Chips: Chips have always been the sorrow of Huawei, with world-leading designs but no cores available.
Huawei's chip design company is HiSilicon, and its products include Kirin series mobile phone processors, Ascend series AI chips, Kunpeng series server chips, Barong series 5G communication chips, Beidou series, and Lingxi series router chips, covering AI, mobile phones, servers, communications, and other fields.
In 2019, Huawei's HiSilicon revenue exceeded 60 billion yuan, surpassing MediaTek and leading Asia's No. 1 fabless chip design company, second only to Qualcomm, Broadcom, and NVIDIA.
Today, chips from Qualcomm, Broadcom, Nvidia and MediaTek are rapidly occupying the market. Only Huawei has not only lost the market, but also cannot even use chips. The reason for this is that there is no foundry.
In September 2020, TSMC stopped making chips for Huawei, and Samsung also rejected Huawei's foundry request, and since then, Kirin chips have lost their foundry status, resulting in the collapse of Huawei's mobile phone business.
If Qualcomm, Nvidia and MediaTek did not have foundries, the situation would be worse than Huawei. But there are so many"If"What about it?
After many efforts, Huawei and Qualcomm reached an agreement, with the help of Qualcomm's 4G chip, Huawei mobile phones have not completely disappeared.
In other words, Huawei is still hanging on the phone chip"Sword of Damocles", this one"Hanging sword"It will destroy Huawei's mobile phone dream at any time.
System: After years of hard work, Huawei has successfully built a bloody way in the operating system"harmonyos"。
HarmonyOS is a microkernel-based all-scenario distributed operating system that can realize modular coupling, flexibly match different devices, and can be used on different devices such as mobile phones, tablets, PCs, and cars, and is a universal system that can connect all devices to each other.
The HarmonyOS system has been developed since 1998, and after more than 20 years of hard work, it was successfully released on June 2, 2021, and has now been updated to 31st Edition.
By the end of 2022, the number of Huawei devices equipped with the HarmonyOS system has reached 3300 million units, more than 2 million ecological developers, although there is still a big gap with Android and iOS, but it has finally broken through"The line of life and death"。
Many netizens have already experienced the Redmi system, and there is no obvious gap with Android and iOS in terms of fluency, security, and practicality, and it is definitely expected to become the third largest mobile phone operating system in the future.
Screen: With the rise of BOE, TCL and Shenzhen, the localization of mobile phone screens has also gained a huge opportunity.
Since 2018, domestic enterprises have continued to introduce technical talents, and tens of billions or even hundreds of billions of investments have made the output of OLED screens in the mainland increase rapidly, and the technical level has also been continuously improved.
In the third quarter of 2022, BOE OLED screens accounted for 13% of the market share, second only to Samsung's 60%. The market share of the entire domestic OLED screen exceeds 30%.
BOE's screen is used in Huawei's flagship products Mate and P series, and even entered Apple's ** chain at the same time.
It can be said that the OLED screen has been localized, and Samsung's future reversal is also possible.
Overall, in terms of the three major components, in addition to chips, Huawei has achieved domestic substitution.
As for the camera, battery, charging, memory, etc., these are all minor problems for Huawei, and they can all be solved.
It can be said that the main reason for the decline of Huawei's smartphone business is mobile phone chips, as long as this is solved, with Huawei's appeal, it will not be a problem to sell 200 million units a year.
How to solve the chip problem?
How does Huawei solve the problem of mobile phone chips?There are no more than two paths: 1. Outsourcing;2. Self-developed.
Outsourcing, of course, is a choice"Light Android"Qualcomm Snapdragon. However, there is a problem here, that is, the more advanced Snapdragon 5G chips are not sold to Huawei.
Originally, 5G with 4G mobile phone, which is somewhat embarrassing!To this end, Huawei has developed a 5G mobile phone case, so that 4G mobile phones can also take advantage of the advantages of 5G networks.
But the problem still exists, friends are all 8gen2, you are still hovering in 8+, the performance is behind, ** priority. It's a bit like a big shop.
Therefore, many fans have said: Kirin 990 and Kirin 9000 can fight for another three years, they support Huawei, but they don't want to use the blood version"Huawei Snapdragon phone"。
Therefore, counting the Snapdragon chips and hitting 200 million units, I am afraid it will be difficult to achieve!
If Huawei succeeds in getting the latest Snapdragon chips, coupled with satellite communications, photography, charging, black screen and other technologies, the sales of Huawei mobile phones will not be a problem at all (or reduce prices).
But the question is: will the United States agree?Will they let Qualcomm impose limits?I think it's very difficult.
In fact, the reason why Huawei phones can become"Light of China", thanks in large part to the Kirin chip.
From the K3V1 that no one cares about, to the K3V2 with a poor reputation, to the Kirin 960, and then to the last Kirin 9000, it can be said that Huawei has been working hard and improving.
After the Kirin 960, Huawei's independent research and development has been recognized by the market, and during the period, Huawei reached its peak, directly surpassing Apple in sales.
It can be seen that consumers' love for Kirin chips is absolutely wholeheartedly.
If Huawei's Kirin chips make a comeback, 200 million sales a year will definitely not be a problem.
In that case, let's do our own research and development!It's not easy!
Huawei's Kirin chip is stuck in the most difficult chip process - manufacturing. This link requires advanced manufacturing level, advanced manufacturing equipment and high-quality semiconductor materials.
These have been controlled by the United States, Japan, the Netherlands, and other countries for a long time, and it is extremely difficult to realize the advanced nature of the nation, and it is almost impossible to realize it in a short period of time.
How difficult is it to produce high-end wafers?
High-end wafers (sub-7nm processes) have long been controlled by TSMC and Samsung Electronics, which monopolize 100% of the world's production capacity.
After years of hard work, the semiconductor manufacturing (SMIC) wafer foundry in mainland China has finally upgraded the process to 12 nanometers, but it is still three generations away.
In fact, the real problem with wafer fabrication is not the manufacturing technology, but the equipment and materials.
Equipment: The United States, Japan, and the Netherlands control chip manufacturing equipment916% market share, of which the United States accounts for 417%, and Japan accounted for 311%, and the Netherlands accounted for 188%。
If the three companies apply pressure at the same time, the equipment chain of the entire industry such as lithography machines, etching machines, thin film deposition equipment, cleaning equipment, coating development equipment, ALD, ion implantation, measurement, CMP, heat treatment, etc., will be restricted.
No equipment can make chips, and even TSMC has to take a break.
After years of research and development, domestic enterprises have successfully obtained some domestic alternative equipment, taking the three major equipment (lithography machine, etching machine, thin film deposition equipment) as an example:
Lithography machine: the most advanced EUV lithography machine of the Dutch ASML company, which can produce 3nm wafers;The DUV lithography machine of Nikon company in Japan can produce 14nm wafersThe 90-nanometer lithography machine that replaces Shanghai Microelectronics in China can produce 65-nanometer wafers.
If there is no lithography machine from the Netherlands and Japan, domestic wafers will directly return to 65 nanometers, 5 nanometers, and 4 nanometers, which is not at all.
Etching equipment: Lam Research Semiconductor, Tokyo Electron, Applied Materials, and CR3 account for more than 90% of the market share, but fortunately, Hua Microelectronics and North Hualong can do it despite insufficient production"Flat substitution"。
Thin film deposition equipment has also achieved some domestic substitution, with the substitution rate of about 13% for enterprises represented by Tuojing Technology, North Huachuang and Shanghai Shengmei.
It can be said that on the equipment, we are still EUV lithography machine"Stuck neck", unable to break through in a short period of time.
Materials: Semiconductor materials are mainly in the hands of Japan.
According to relevant data, Japan controls 66% of the world's semiconductor materials, and among the 19 most critical materials, 14 of them have a market share of more than 50%.
Japan has a market share of more than 50% of the four main semiconductor materials: wafers, masks, photoresists, and electronic specialty gases.
As far as photoresists are concerned, only Japan has achieved mass production in the field of EUVs, while China is still in the research stage. Japan's photoresist technology company has very strict patent control"Stealing teachers"It is almost impossible, only independent research and development.
One photoresist has become a problem, so how many problems are there with 19 key materials?
SMIC currently dominates 7nm manufacturing technology, but the lack of equipment and materials can only stop at 12nm, and Huawei's Kirin chips also stop there.
Therefore, relying on independent research and development to achieve the manufacture of 5nm and 4nm chips cannot be achieved in a short period of time, and Huawei will reach 200 million mobile phone sales in 2025, which may be another castle in the air.
In order to reach 200 million mobile phone sales, Huawei will push domestic mobile phones to a new height, which is definitely worth looking forward to.
But in fact, Huawei's Kirin chip has been"Neck anticipation"Without a foundry, no lithography machine, and no advanced materials, Kirin chips cannot be mass-produced.
Relying on Qualcomm Snapdragon chips, Huawei's mobile phones reach 200 million a yearI don't think that's reliable!
In any case, I still look forward to the return of Huawei mobile phones, and if I can, I will definitely buy them and support domestic products.