Recently, the U.S. Navy News Network reported that China launched its fourth Type 075 amphibious assault ship on December 14, this time at the Hudong-Zhonghua shipyard in Shanghai. The new ship will undergo outfitting, mooring and sea trials in the coming months. In addition, another 40,000-ton heavy ship is expected to join the Chinese Navy in a year's time.
So far, China has displayed 16 large surface ships with a displacement of more than 20,000 tons, showing a significant increase in its naval power. Of particular interest is the supercarrier "Fujian", which is currently undergoing mooring trials, including tests of a catapult trolley. Notably, a 1:1 scale model of the carrier's aircraft has been placed on the deck of the carrier, indicating that the ship is about to begin sea trials and is expected to be officially commissioned in 2025. By that time, China will have three aircraft carriers.
Although the Fujian is not yet in service, there is a lot of buzz about China's next-generation Type 004 aircraft carrier, including its design, construction time, and how many aircraft carriers China should build.
In celebration of the 74th anniversary of the founding of the Navy, Chinese officials made it clear that given the vastness of China's waters, the existing three aircraft carriers are not enough to meet the needs of ocean-going operations, so China will build more advanced large aircraft carriers.
The question of how many aircraft carriers China should build can be considered from a number of angles. First of all, the cost of building and operating aircraft carriers is very high. For example, the cost of China's aircraft carrier "Shandong" could reach 30 billion yuan, plus carrier-based aircraft and several escort phased array destroyers, the total cost is more than 50 billion yuan. The cost of the "Fujian" aircraft carrier and its operating costs are even higher.
Take the USS Ford, for example, which cost $14.1 billion. In addition to the cost of construction, equipping the aircraft carrier with carrier-based aircraft, crew equipment, and routine maintenance also requires a huge amount of money. For example, the cost of configuration and maintenance of a Nimitz-class nuclear-powered aircraft carrier far exceeds the cost of its construction.
Nuclear-powered aircraft carriers are particularly expensive to operate. For example, a Nimitz-class aircraft carrier would cost about $1 billion to replace its nuclear fuel. These carriers use high-abundance enriched uranium, which requires 4 tons of 40% enriched uranium-235 fuel rods to be loaded at a time, and the cost of nuclear fuel alone is $800 million, plus other costs when replacing nuclear fuel.
The construction of China's aircraft carriers is not only a symbol of military strength, but also a deeper reflection of the country's strategic layout and the protection of maritime rights and interests. For China, the build-up of its naval power must be coordinated with the country's long-term strategic development and maritime interests. It is unlikely that China will follow the example of the U.S. Navy and build 10 or 11 supercarriers at once and replace them regularly.
The geopolitical environment facing China is complex and challenging, especially when it comes to maritime strategy. The Chinese Navy must deal with geographical restrictions represented by the island chain and strategic disadvantages of access to the sea. Like Germany during World War I and World War II, and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, China faces a naval blockade and geostrategic dilemma.
In the western and central Pacific Ocean, three island chains form a constraint on Chinese naval operations. The United States uses these island chains to strategically encircle China and use them as a tool to limit China's strategic development. The combat experience of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the sinking of the missile cruiser "Moskva" have provided a warning to the Chinese Navy that shore-based strike forces and shore-to-ship missiles pose a great threat to surface ships.
The Chinese Navy faces the threat of anti-ship missiles deployed by hostile forces in several key straits and waterways in the western Pacific. Key passages such as the Miyako Strait, the Bass Strait, and the Balintang Strait are conventional shipping lanes in peacetime, but can turn into deadly firetraps in times of conflict. For example, the U.S. Army's newly developed "Hippocampus" PRSM precision strike missile, an incremental 4 modification with a range of up to 1,000 kilometers, is seen as the key to the blockade of the first island chain**.
By controlling key straits, the United States and its allies can effectively blockade China's navy at a relatively low cost. This strategy of dominating the sea has aroused great attention from the US Army, Navy, and Air Force, and even the Marine Corps, which are actively exploring the capability of long-range land-based cruise missile strikes for mobile deployment on the islands.
Therefore, if the Chinese Navy is to achieve a breakthrough in the far seas and build a true ocean-going naval capability, it must first break the blockade of these island chains. In the Indo-Pacific, the vast majority of straits and choke points are under the control of the United States and its Asia-Pacific allies. In the event of a conflict, these key islands and waterways will become the focal point of the conflict, which will be targeted by China's naval and air forces and long-range missiles to remove obstacles to the passage of naval forces into and out of the Pacific or Indian Ocean.
In view of China's special geopolitical environment and strategic needs, its military development strategy needs to take into account the balanced development of the navy, land and air force. The focus is on strengthening the strategic bombing force, rather than concentrating most of the defense resources on naval buildup. China does not need to pursue a global naval deployment capability and build a large aircraft carrier fleet like the United States, because its strategic goals and international status are different.
It is enough for China to maintain a strong aircraft carrier fleet with regional strike capabilities. Therefore, China does not have to pursue an aircraft carrier fleet of the same size as the United States. The reasonable option is to build a modest number of aircraft carriers, while developing other types of military forces, such as increasing the number of bombers.
Although an aircraft carrier is a symbol of great maritime power, its practical efficiency is limited by a number of factors. In particular, nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, although their performance is superior, are not high in terms of voyage rate, and they often need to be maintained and maintained, especially during the refueling overhaul, which may take a long time. The U.S. Navy, for example, often has 10 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers that are in the process of a four-year refueling overhaul, while many others may remain at their home port for repairs. As a result, the number of nuclear aircraft carriers deployed by the US military around the world is limited.
Given the limited number of aircraft carriers that can go to sea each year, China would need to build at least six or more aircraft carriers if it wants to maintain a fleet of three to four aircraft carriers on standby. At present, China already has the "Liaoning" and "Shandong" warships, as well as the "Fujian" warships that will soon be commissioned. China is expected to continue building a conventionally powered aircraft carrier of the same type as the Fujian, followed by two more nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, eventually forming a six-carrier fleet. Next, China can slow down the construction of aircraft carriers in a timely manner and realize the gradual iterative renewal of aircraft carriers.
However, this process will take at least fifteen years. The pace and scale of naval construction depends primarily on the strategic needs of the country and its financial budget. The goal of building large ships can be achieved only with the support of an abundant economy.
As George Washington, the first president of the United States, said: "We cannot accomplish any glorious and just cause without a strong navy." German Field Marshal Tirpitz also noted: "The construction of the Navy is not only a matter of technology, but more importantly of funding." "Therefore, the development of the aircraft carrier fleet must be based on the sustained and stable growth of the Chinese economy and adequate financial support.
**From the Internet, if there is any infringement, contact to delete!