It can be seen from the trend of live pigs since 2006 that pigs have obvious cyclicality, usually manifested as a cycle of about 4 years - a period of about 1 year, a period of about 2 years and a bottom period of about 1 year.
Pig cycle "is mainly affected by breeding profits, under normal circumstances, the supply of pigs after about 10 months of breeding sows, farmers will adjust the basic production capacity according to the current pig **, spot profits and expectations for the future, and then after 10-12 months can be cashed out for fattening pigs slaughtered, slower than the adjustment of market supply and demand in time, resulting in periodic fluctuations in pig **. In addition, the "pig cycle" will also be affected by pig diseases, environmental protection policies, storage policies, etc., and the fluctuations are more complex and drastic.
The first round of "pig cycle" from July 2006 to April 2009, lasted 33 months, the key event was the occurrence of "porcine blue ear disease" in the pig breeding industry in November 2006, which led to a rapid decline in the number of breeding sows, which led to a large increase in pigs in 2007. With the recovery of the number of fertile sows in 2008, pigs began to decline.
The second round of "pig cycle" from May 2009 to April 2014, lasted 59 months, the key event is that in the winter of 2010 to the spring of 2011, pig farms across the country have occurred serious infectious pig diarrhea disease, its morbidity and mortality are very high, piglet survival rate dropped sharply, directly promoted the second half of 2011 pig ** skyrocketing. Stimulated by high pig prices and high breeding profits, the number of breeding sows in 2011 recovered growth, and the annual pig price fell under the background of abundant production capacity.
The third round of "pig cycle" from May 2014 to May 2018, lasted 48 months, the key event is the environmental protection driven by the pig supply side reform, this stage of small and medium-sized farmers were forced to withdraw, large breeding enterprises took the opportunity to expand, pig industrial structure, pig breeding, piglet fattening and other links have been greatly optimized, production indicators have also been significantly improved. The month-on-month increase in the number of fertile sows from 2014 to 2015 triggered a boom in pigs from 2015 to the first half of 2016. In 2016, although the overall number of breeding sows showed a downward trend, due to the improvement of pig production performance, the number of pigs slaughtered in 2017 was still at a high level, and the number of pigs was significantly larger.
The fourth round of the "pig cycle" lasted from June 2018 to March 2022, and the key event was the outbreak of African swine fever. In July 2019, African swine fever broke out in a large area in China, and the production capacity of pigs was rapidly reduced, and the number of breeding sows and pigs in August and September decreased by about 40% year-on-year, and the number of pigs in a straight line increased to 4098 yuan kg. In order to restore pig production capacity as soon as possible, the first department actively took a number of measures such as loan discounts and ensuring the orderly transportation of breeding pigs, and the number of breeding sows began to grow gradually in October 2019, and basically recovered to the level of 2017 by the end of 2020, and the pigs began to fall after the Spring Festival in 2021. After entering June 2021, some farmers began to lose money, and the reduction of pig production capacity began accordingly.
The fifth round of the "pig cycle" is from April 2022 to the present. In March 2022, the bottom of pig prices was basically completed, and after entering April, due to the decrease in the number of pigs slaughtered, pig prices began to rise, and by October 2022, the pig price rose to a high of 28 yuan kg in the year. At the end of last year, under the weak supply and demand, the pig price was once again **, and the road to pig production capacity was opened again.
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