In recent years, China's per capita pork consumption has shown a leading trend, and some pork consumption has shifted to chicken, beef, etc. At the same time, the consumption of pork by Chinese residents also shows seasonal characteristics, generally the high temperature in spring and summer belongs to the off-season of consumption, and the low temperature in autumn and winter belongs to the peak season of consumption.
, per capita pork consumption is declining
After 2014, affected by factors such as the change of population age structure and the adjustment of residents' dietary structure, China's per capita pork consumption showed a downward trend as a whole, and the per capita beef consumption and chicken consumption showed an overall growth trend. In 2014, China's per capita pork consumption reached 42With a peak of 75 kilograms, China's per capita pork consumption is estimated to be 40 in 202367 kg, down about 4 from the peak in 201487%。It should also be noted that the impact of the gradual decline in per capita pork consumption on the pig market is a long-term effect, and the impact on the market in the short term is relatively limited, and the main factors affecting per capita pork consumption in the short term are still the first and the first. For 2024, with the recent introduction of a series of economic stimulus policies, the macroeconomic situation is expected to be stable and improving next year, and there is also a certain incremental space for pork consumption, which is expected to provide good support for pig prices.
Pork consumption has seasonal characteristics
Taking slaughter volume as a reference, pork consumption has obvious seasonal characteristics. Generally speaking, due to the "refrigerator inventory" and sufficient bacon inventory of residents before the Spring Festival, and eating more meat dishes during the Spring Festival, February (after the Spring Festival) is the traditional off-season for pork consumptionPork consumption recovered from March to May, but it is still in a relatively low seasonFrom June to July, due to the hot weather, people generally have poor appetite, and pork consumption is weak and stable;After August, the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day gradually arrived, and the festival effect promoted the recovery of pork consumptionFrom October to mid-November, just after the festival and the pickled sausage has not yet opened, pork consumption is slightly weak;From mid to late November to January and February of the following year (before the Lunar New Year), the temperature dropped significantly, and the residents' demand for pork consumption increased, and with the winter solstice and the Spring Festival approaching, the southern residents pickled sausages and the northern residents tun "New Year's meat", and the pork consumption ushered in the highest peak of the year. The seasonal variation of pork consumption also contributed to the seasonal change of pig prices during the year.
, pork ** still has a certain price advantage
From theoretical and practical observations, it is found that pork and chicken, beef and even vegetables have a certain substitution, that is, when pork ** is too high, people will increase the consumption of chicken, beef and even vegetables, and reduce pork consumption, otherwise the opposite is true. Although this year, although chicken and beef have fallen compared with the previous period, the values of pork, chicken, pork, beef and pork vegetables are still at a normal low level, that is, pork still has a certain price advantage. Therefore, we believe that the increase in pork consumption brought by low prices has been fully reflected in the current consumption, and the subsequent increase in pork consumption is more than the increase in seasonal consumption and the consumption increase brought about by the continuous improvement of the macro economy
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