This week, Tianjin's building materials market is surging, and rebar ** is also in the midst of twists and turns. Macro expectations are stable and improving, and market sentiment continues to ferment in the off-season environment.
Let's take a look at the market dynamics first. Last Friday night, the snail fell slightly, as if to sound the alarm bell for the market. However, some businesses in Tianjin building materials are not in a hurry to ship, but make small adjustments according to the market situation**. On the one hand, this is due to the decrease in steel mill arrivals, and the expectation of high costs is still strong;On the other hand, it also reflects the market's optimism about macro expectations and its concern for winter storage.
Before the New Year's Day holiday, demand was sluggish, and the fundamental driving force was obviously insufficient. Merchants generally believe that the current market is high, profit margins are limited, and market speculative demand is also suppressed. However, the good news in terms of output is that there has been an increase in information on maintenance and production reduction recently, and some steel mills such as Xinda have even chosen to temporarily suspend production. This is not only because the output exceeds the production and has to reduce the production, but also because of the pressure of the transformation of the electric furnace plant and the loss. Although this is only a temporary shutdown at the end of the year, it has also reduced the pressure on steel prices to a certain extent.
Let's look at the macro level. Although there is not much macro good news this week, as we approach the end of the year, macro expectations are still strong. The central bank's operation in the open market is expected to increase, and the issuance of the early approval quota of trillions of local bonds next year is also expected. These policy atmosphere is undoubtedly beneficial to the steel market environment.
However, the actual market supply and demand situation is not optimistic. Although the current market for macro expectations is still good, and the increase in steel mill production reduction has boosted market sentiment, but the thread table demand fell month-on-month, the output declined significantly, the inventory continued to accumulate and the accumulation of inventory increased, and the table demand declined in the third week.
In this context, the short-term market still needs to be sorted out at a high level. For investors, the focus has shifted from the conventional supply and demand structure to winter storage. The price fluctuations of rebar may be repeated.
Overall, rebar is in a complex and volatile market environment. From merchants to merchants, from output to demand, every link may become a key factor affecting the market. When participating in trading, investors should not only pay attention to fundamental information, but also combine the macro environment and market expectations, as well as technical analysis, before making a choice.
Let's take a look at the technical side of the rebar, first of all, the rebar of the short from last night, 4010 focus on the opportunity to short, today is actually a wave, but ** is very fast, there is no profit at the moment must be almost to take back. This also shows that the current trend of the black plate is relatively biased, and some friends say that they can't understand it. If you are in this situation, just take a break, don't think about it, don't try to grasp all the opportunities, just do what you can see and understand, of course, if you don't understand, you can come to me at any time. At present, the rebar disk is still in the short cycle of the ** trend, as long as the position of 4010 can not stand up, then the short friends can continue to hold, this is the first tone in the figure, the second expectation is to break through the 4010 position, once the stand ** will continue to go up, so this is also the position that everyone needs to focus on when doing it. The whole operation revolves around this 4010. over