First, the US November PCE data came in lower than expected and the previous reading, indicating that inflation has eased. At the same time, the number of new home sales was also lower than expected and the previous reading, and economic growth concerns brought forward the Fed's interest rate cut expectations to March. These factors have a strong positive effect on Shanghai and Gold.
However, the European and BoE central banks are not considering a rate cut next year, and the probability of the Bank of Japan ending negative interest rates next year is not zero. If the Bank of Japan tightens monetary policy in the future, and the Bank of Europe and the Bank of England do not cut interest rates, the dollar index may fall, and the US real interest rate** will fall, which will help *** continue to strengthen. In addition, the recent Red Sea crisis has boosted risk aversion in the market, which has also pushed gold prices higher.
However, it is important to note that the US economy is more resilient than Europe, which may delay the rate cut cycle. At the same time, inflation is likely to recur in the face of lower base effects. Gold prices are expected to be strong, but the upside is weak.
Now whether it is data or market sentiment, it is bullish, and the idea of going to 2500 has come up again, well,,, I respect that. Inflation is expected to decline slowly next year, and now the market is rushing to the front, and it should be noted whether the Federal Reserve will come out to be hawkish in the future, ** with the help of easing expectations to gradually cash in the ladder upward. At the same time, beware of short-term hedging disturbance risks such as the monetary policy adjustment of the United States and Japan. In terms of commodity attributes, the global ** supply is expected to remain stable in 2024, but demand may diverge, central bank gold purchases are expected to grow steadily, investment demand is expected to recover, but jewellery consumption is expected to be difficult to grow significantly.
Look at the technical side of Shanghai gold, the current position is short-term support, is expected to bounce on the top, the current exchange rate is so falling, it is definitely not possible to do more, of course, like to do ** this position can go in to win a **, fast in and out, the high level of the empty can continue to hold, the current exchange rate is still going down, foreign capital into the market, then it is estimated that it will fall again. It should be noted that there is no structural damage at present, and the general direction is still upward from a technical point of view, but I can't imagine how big the profit of the upper space is, I can only see the empty below, so after ** to the target position, I will still choose to go short. Today's Friday, plus the New Year's Day holiday, there are many uncertainties, there is no problem with the fast out, and the long-term can choose to open a position to hedge and avoid risks. over