Twenty years ago, we moved from the countryside to the city, and we just wanted to have a place to live, so we wanted to buy a house.
However, as more and more people move into the city, more and more cities are developed and expanded, and the financial attributes of the house are slowly manifested.
Among them, some people make a lot of money by buying and selling houses, so everyone thinks that buying a house can not only be lived, but also used to make money.
In 2023, real estate has been developing for more than 20 years, and the current high price is stable and the demand for houses has begun to decrease.
We don't know whether we should continue to buy a house now, and sometimes, we also feel that we are very small, always being cannon fodder in the property market, and our own efforts and efforts are all trapped in real estate, and it will be 2024 soon.
What I want to tell you today is that four signals have appeared, indicating that the house price in 2024 may exceed our imagination, as ordinary people, we must be cautious in buying a house.
Today, let's analyze it in detail, if you have any different opinions, you can leave a message in the comment area.
The first signal: it has become a common phenomenon that houses cannot be sold now, whether it is a new house or a second-hand house.
We can make a simple comparison, from 2017 to 2018, it was the stage of real estate price increase and destocking, and at that time, in fact, real estate transactions were crazy.
As the purchase and sale of second-hand houses, the original homeowner may sit on the ground and start the price, because there are too many second-hand houses, and this second-hand house is actually a premium state.
This phenomenon can no longer be seen, many sales offices have begun to lay off staff, and a large number of real estate agents have begun to transform, all of which indicate that houses are becoming more and more difficult to sell now, and the overall transaction volume is declining, and when your house wants to be realized, this de-conversion cycle will be particularly long.
Let's talk about it from the perspective of second-hand housing and new housing respectively:
The new housing market looks:
Now there are all kinds of problems in new houses, which cause people to dare not buy houses easily, such as buying a house, paying for the house, and repaying the bank loan every month, but the developer has no funds, and the delay in delivery or even unfinished work abounds.
In addition, many people are not short of houses, unlike the urbanization 20 years ago, many people go to the city to buy a house.
But now, many families have one or two houses in their hands, so we can wait and see what happens, either not buy, buy or not, so the new housing market is gradually cooling.
There is also a problem, which is caused by the difference, because there are many new houses, which were built in the city center before, and now if you buy them, they will be very, very expensive.
If you are greedy for cheap, and you buy in a development zone, a high-tech zone, and there is not even a decent match, of course, everyone will not be a pick-up man.
Second-hand housing market look:
Second-hand housing is the same, a few years ago, up to now, there are many second-hand housing living environment is unsatisfactory, because compared with the new house, the second-hand house is only a matter of geographical location, but the middle of the **, but there is a lot of difference, so many people are more and more sober, will not be a pick-up man.
One of the most important reasons is that they all thought that developers would not easily go bankrupt, especially the leading developers, and as a result, many developers had accidents. As a result, people's trust in developers has declined rapidly, and no one is willing to take out the money to trap themselves, and finally they can't get a house.
Therefore, it is a very common phenomenon that our houses cannot be sold now.
The second signal: the current situation of unfinished buildings is widespread.
How did the unfinished building come about?
First of all, the local ** will take out the land for auction, the developer bids, and in the end, whoever has more will be able to get the land, and after getting the land, the developer will build a house, then if the middle funds are not enough, you can borrow from the bank, or you can borrow from private institutions.
When one-third of the construction is completed, the developer will get the pre-sale certificate and can sell it to the outside world, so there is still a part of the funds from the people's house purchase funds.
Normally, the developer has so much money that it is not possible to complete the construction and delivery of the house in a short period of time, but the fact is that in the whole process, the supervision is not strong, and we don't know where the money is going.
Part of it is because the developer feels that the profit of taking land to build a house is very large, so when the real estate has not been completed, most of the funds will be invested in some popular plots in other cities, and then auction the land, and then carry out loan financing, so that their debts are more and more, on the other hand, every year real estate executives, their salaries, their dividends are also very much, and the people's hard-earned money is swept away.
Looking back, the wages were paid, the land was taken, but there was a lack of funds for development and construction in the later stage, and after a long time, the capital chain was broken, and finally had to announce that the house was unfinished, which rarely happened before, but in recent years, the phenomenon of unfinished buildings has become more and more common.
Because in the past 20 years, developers have played the three-high model, going crazy to hoard land again and again, limiting their funds, and mortgaging the land they have taken again for cash, and at this time there will be insolvency.
From the three red lines given to developers in 2020, we can see that so far, the life of developers is still difficult, and now that many people are not short of houses, the overall transaction volume has been declining year after year, and it is even more difficult for developers to raise funds.
At this time, it is not surprising that bad endings are widespread.
The third signal: At present, in many cities in China, the vacancy rate of houses is generally high.
I don't know if you have noticed that when you finish dinner, walk around the street or take a walk in the community, you will find that there are many empty houses that are uninhabited all year round.
But these houses have been sold without exception, not that they can't be sold, whether it is a second-hand house or a new housing community, there is such a situation, then we call it hoarding, that is, these houses have already been sold, but they are bought in the name of investment, not for living at all.
In the past, in the development of first- and second-tier cities, there were various real estate regulations, such as purchase restrictions and loan restrictions, the purpose of which was to prevent housing prices from being too fast.
But there are also third- and fourth-tier cities, which are the best depressions, and there are no restrictions on buying a house.
After the purchase restrictions appeared in the first and second-tier cities, many people set their sights on some third- and fourth-tier cities with more potential.
For example, the coastal pension cities, as well as the third and fourth-tier cities with rapid overall development, they have bought a large number of houses here and do not live at all, just hoping that the housing prices will rise in a few years and can be easily cashed out.
As a result, from 2017 to 2018, the country carried out such a policy of destocking, resulting in a collective housing price in third- and fourth-tier cities.
But looking back, are these housing prices really so high in people's demand?
Most people are here for the financial attributes of the house, so in that year, a large number of our houses were traded, and it seemed that real estate had entered a new level, but in fact it was the last wave of struggle, squeezing out the only little savings of the people.
Behind the vacancy rate of the house, it shows that our needs have been met in large quantities and are no longer needed, so at this time, so many vacant houses, how the future owners will realize it, who will take over these houses, and when is the most suitable time, these are unknowns.
Therefore, the vacancy rate of houses brings a great waste of resources and a great sense of insecurity. Therefore, when the vacancy rate of this house is increasing, it will pull down the overall housing price of a city, the wealth of residents is shrinking, and the wait-and-see mood of the people will become stronger and stronger.
At this time, the overall real estate will go downhillThe fourth signal: there is more and more evidence that our real estate bubble has begun to widen
Real estate has never been a single industry, it is related to the local government, to our banks, that is, to our financial industry, and to our ordinary people.
It can be said that if real estate is booming, then other industries are also thriving, but if real estate starts to decline, other industries will also be affected considerably.
Why is the bubble of our real estate gradually increasing, there is still a time node, from 2017 to 2018 The price increase to inventory has accelerated the uneven distribution of wealth, and also accelerated the trapping of our ordinary people.
Originally, we ordinary people had a measure before, that is, if I had money, I would buy a house, and if I didn't have money, I would admit it.
But in the era of rising housing prices in 2017 and 2018, everyone entered a panic buy, and you can't buy it if you don't buy it, because for the same house, if you buy it three months late, you may pay an extra price of 200,000 or even 300,000 yuan.
Our ability to earn money is limited, so whether you are reluctant or not, we spent ** money to buy a house at that time, and now it has only passed in a short time.
Five or six years.
Some new houses have become unfinished buildings and have not been delivered, and the loans that the people want to repay are firmly in, and some second-hand houses themselves are sky-high prices at the time, and you buy them without hesitation.
Now with the regulation of real estate, housing prices have fallen, you are repaying the loan, your cost is increasing, and on the other hand, your house is constantly depreciating, so in the end it is the ordinary people who are hurt, so this is not a real estate bubble.
That is to say, the house is regarded as a commodity, and the result is that the commodity itself has not changed, but we have invested a lot of energy, financial resources, and time, and finally we are in prison, so this is more than worth the loss, so this situation is slowly intensifying.
Based on the emergence of these four signals, we can ** that even now, when the overall real estate policy is fully liberalized, by 2024, the transaction volume of our real estate will still be very, very low.
Policies such as the current first-tier cities do not recognize the mortgage, the second set of down payment is reduced to 40%, etc., but the fact is that many people are not interested at all, the reason is that the people have no purchasing power, and the rich investors have no desire.
So, when buying a house, if you really just need it, you buy it again, and if you have other ideas, give up early.