Xinhua.
China Economic Times reporter Wang Lijuan.
On December 9, the National Bureau of Statistics released the national CPI (Household Consumption Index) and PPI (Industrial Producer Producer Index) data for November 2023. The data showed that in November, the CPI fell by 05%, a year-on-year decline of 03 percentage points;PPI fell 3 percent year-on-year0%, a decrease of 04 percentage points.
Food, energy, etc. dragged down the CPI decline.
In November, CPI fell 05%, the decline has widened compared with October, mainly caused by the decline in service consumption such as agricultural products, international oil prices, and travel. * Wang Likun, an associate researcher at the Institute of Market Economy of the Development Research Center, said in an interview with a reporter from the China Economic Times. Specifically, the number of live pigs slaughtered has increased, and pork ** decreased by 3 month-on-month0%, a year-on-year decrease of 318%, affecting the CPI year-on-year decline of about 06 percentage points. Domestic gasoline ** decreased by 2 month-on-month8%, air tickets, hotel accommodation, and tourism** decreased month-on-month9%。Among these influencing factors, changes in food ** have a greater impact. "Food** is weaker than seasonality across the board. Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, told the China Economic Times that in November, food fell by 0 month-on-month9%, significantly lower than the historical November average of 0The 2% month-on-month decline widened the year-on-year decline to 42%。Although the "pig cycle" continues to weaken and the weather is sunny and the supply is abundant, considering that most food products are weaker than seasonal, the lack of consumer demand cannot be ignored.
Overall, the core CPI excluding food and energy** remained modest** in November, up 06%, the same as the previous month, indicating that the price trend in China is generally stable. Wang Likun analyzed.
In terms of PPI, Wang Likun believes that in November, PPI fell by 3 year-on-year0%, an increase of 04 percentage points, mainly due to the decline in international oil prices, the release of new energy metal production capacity such as lithium, and the weak market demand for some industrial products. Among them, in November, the average price of Brent*** was 82 US dollars per barrel, down 76%, driving the decline of energy and chemical products. Affected by the global investment boom in new energy metal mines in the past few years, it is currently in the stage of capacity release, and lithium-ion battery manufacturing has decreased by 11 year-on-year6%。Wen Bin said that in November, the PPI fell for the second consecutive month, and the overall decline was weaker than market expectations. On the one hand, the decline of international commodities to the domestic market is the main influencing factor;On the other hand, the recovery of domestic downstream demand has been repeated, which has also hindered the recovery of PPI to a certain extent. At the same time, the PPI rose month-on-month in the same period last year, which also raised the year-on-year base of this month.
Prices will remain stable during the "two periods".
The ** Politburo meeting held on December 8 required that the supply and price stability of important livelihood commodities during the "two festivals" should be done. What is the price trend during the "two festivals"?Wang Likun believes that during the "two festivals", consumer demand for food and travel services will rebound seasonally, which is expected to drive a moderate recovery in prices, and the year-on-year increase in CPI will turn positive. "The Spring Festival holiday in 2024 will be extended to 8 days for the first time, and if it can be taken for 9 consecutive days with paid leave, the domestic tourism market is expected to heat up significantly. Wang Likun suggested that relevant departments should plan in advance, use big data and information technology to monitor the number of travelers in various places, release and push dynamic news in a timely manner with the help of the best power, guide relevant service industries around the country to make material reserves and personnel arrangements in advance, encourage relevant enterprises to extend business or tour opening hours, guide consumers to reasonably plan travel routes, and promote the dynamic balance of supply and demand. Wen Bin expects that the demand recovery trend of China's industrial enterprises will continue to be maintained during the year, but due to the weakening of external inflation input caused by the global economic slowdown, and the short-term recovery of external demand is relatively modest, it is expected that PPI will remain in the negative range or continue for more than half a year. The industry believes that the low operation of CPI and PPI is mainly due to insufficient demand. In Wen Bin's view, the next stage should play the basic role of consumption in driving economic growth, expand consumption by increasing residents' income, drive effective supply through terminal demand, and organically combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with the deepening of supply-side structural reform. It is necessary to boost bulk consumption such as automobiles, electronic products, and home furnishings, and promote the consumption of services such as sports and leisure, cultural tourism, etc. It is expected that with the policy force, the CPI will not last long in the negative range in the future, and it is expected to return to positive by February 2024.
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