After bottoming out this week and releasing pessimism to a certain extent, A-shares returned to a narrow range above 2,900 points on Thursday. The trend of foreign capital outflow, but the outflow pressure has been greatly eased compared with last week, and the suppression of foreign capital has been reduced. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 094%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed down 175%, the GEM index closed down 123%。
There are many factors that affect the event during the week. Affected by the Red Sea risk event, large shipping companies suspended the Red Sea route, and the Asia-Europe route lost effective capacity, pushing up freight rates. The global shipping market is facing upside risks, and shipping concept stocks briefly rose on Monday.
Affected by the widespread snowfall across the country, coal production and transportation in some areas have been restricted, short-term supply contraction, and the superimposed temperature drop has boosted coal demand, effectively alleviating the pressure of high inventories, and further supporting coal prices to maintain a high level. The coal sector ushered in an improvement in prosperity, rising 102%, bringing a touch of warmth to the cold winter.
On Friday, the National Press and Publication Administration issued the "Measures for the Administration of Online Games (Draft for Solicitation of Comments)", which strictly stipulates login rewards and recharge limits, and the fundamentals of the game industry have suffered a setback. As most of the game leaders are distributed in Hong Kong, the introduction of new regulations led to a rapid decline in Hang Seng Technology in the afternoon, with a single-day decline of 437%。
On the macro front, monetary policy continued to be accommodative. The 1-year and 5-year loan market** rates (LPR) remained at 3 in December45% and 420% unchanged, in line with market expectations. At the same time, a number of large state-owned banks have lowered their deposit interest rates, and the pressure on banks' net interest margins is expected to ease, which is conducive to promoting the restoration of market confidence. In the next step, small and medium-sized banks such as joint-stock banks and urban rural commercial banks are expected to follow up and adjust the listed interest rates on deposits. Since the beginning of this year, the LPR and deposit rates have continued to fall, and they are still in the easing cycle.
In terms of policy, the new rules on repurchase and dividends have been officially implemented, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission has guided the relaxation of the repurchase threshold, encouraged the improvement of advanced dividend levels, and strengthened the supervision of abnormal behaviors, encouraging listed companies to actively return investors from the institutional and policy level, which is expected to further attract value investment.
The central bank held an expert forum on the economic and financial situation. The governor of the central bank said that in the context of increasing external uncertainty, the resilience of China's foreign exchange market has been significantly enhanced, and the RMB exchange rate has remained basically stable at a reasonable and balanced levelThe central bank has always adhered to the "two unwavering", focusing on cultivating new momentum for development, and promoting the private economy to become bigger, better and strongerMaintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, match the scale of social financing and the amount of money with the expected target of economic growth and the highest level, maintain reasonable credit growth, stable rhythm and structural optimization, and create a good monetary and financial environment for the sustained economic recovery.
In terms of strategic allocation, it is recommended to pay attention to the real estate chain affected by the expected improvement of policies in the short term. From a cyclical perspective, you can pay attention to industrial metals, consumer electronics and other sectors.
In the medium and long term, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the technology sector, including Huawei's industrial chain, intelligent chain, and pharmaceutical sector, as well as the strategic emerging industries highlighted in the first economic work conference, including biomanufacturing, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy.
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