The three major indexes rose sharply today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising more than 1%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising more than 2%, and the ChiNext Index rising more than 4% in the afternoon. The new energy track led by photovoltaics has set off a rising tide, with more than 20 shares of LONGi Green Energy, King Kong Solar, Maiwei Co., Ltd., Jingshan Light Machine, Junda Co., Ltd., etc., and driving the lithium battery and wind power sectors to collectively rise. Liquor, food, duty-free and other consumer stocks rose, Shede liquor rose by the limit, and China's duty-free and alcoholic liquor rose by more than 7%;Financial stocks such as brokerages and insurance strengthened, Huaxin shares rose by the limit, Flush rose by more than 8%, and Xinhua Insurance rose by more than 5%. * In terms of the early strong stocks led by the dragon generation, the tide continued to ebb, Tianwei Video staged the sky floor, leading shares, Longyun shares, Yinbaoshan new, and Sanbaisho fell to the limit. **Showing a general upward trend, more than 4,300 shares in the two cities are red, with a turnover of 884.4 billion yuan today.
1.Photovoltaics
The photovoltaic sector set off a tide of daily limits today, Qingyuan shares 6 boards, Zhongke Cloud Network, Cybrid Technology are multi-share daily limits, the most popular is the leading LONGi Green Energy, close to the midday limit, the turnover ranks first in the two cities, 688.9 billion. In the afternoon, the entire photovoltaic sector will be driven to climax.
According to the data of the National Energy Administration, the new installed capacity of domestic photovoltaic in November was 2132GW, +185% YoY, +57% MoM;From January to November, the cumulative installed capacity of domestic photovoltaic was 16388GW, +149% YoY. After the new domestic PV installed capacity declined month-on-month for three consecutive months, the installed capacity data in November was significantly restored as the domestic end of the year usually ushered in a rush to install.
Secondly, on December 27, GCL Optoelectronics held the groundbreaking ceremony of the world's first gigawatt-level large-scale perovskite production base in Kunshan High-tech Zone, Suzhou City, Jiangsu Province. In addition, approaching the end of the year, the analysis said that there was a need to make up for the previous drift.
Yongxing** expects that the domestic PV data in December will continue to improve month-on-month.
It is expected that the installed photovoltaic capacity will reach 200GW-210GW in 2024, and the year-on-year growth rate may fall to 5%-10%, of which the proportion of centralized is expected to rise steadilyIn the case of the strengthening of growth targets and the implementation of subsidy policies, the growth momentum is expected to be significantly strengthened with the decline in interest rates, while emerging markets such as India and Brazil are expected to benefit from the sharp decline in photovoltaic costs and stimulate the accelerated release of demand, and it is expected that the global new installed capacity of photovoltaic in 2024 will be nearly 450GW, a year-on-year increase of about 20%.
In terms of inventories, it is estimated that European module inventories may be close to 50GW by the end of 2023, and are expected to improve steadily in 2024 as demand growsThe destocking of overseas inverter inventories is nearing the end, and the inventory level is gradually returning to normal levels, and the export demand in the first quarter of 2024 may meet the inflection point of further improvement.
2.Lithium batteries
Also as an "old track", after the surge in photovoltaics, lithium battery has also become the main object of capital long. Dexin Technology, Times Wanheng, Tianci Materials and other shares have a daily limit. CATL, the leader of the sector, rose by more than 5%, with a turnover of more than 6 billion, the largest increase in recent times.
There was no linkage in the vehicle sector, only BYD**, Cialis fell 8%, and Changan Automobile also closed down.
Haitong ** believes that since the beginning of 2023, the lithium battery industry has been in the stage of destocking, and the valuation of the sector is at a historically low level.
The Shanghai Securities Daily also pointed out that from the policy side, the "Announcement on Adjusting the Technical Requirements for New Energy Vehicle Products for Reducing and Reducing Vehicle Purchase Tax" issued on December 11 appropriately increased the requirements of existing technical indicators, including improving core indicators such as vehicle energy consumption, driving range, and energy density of power battery systemsAt the same time, new technical index requirements for low-temperature mileage attenuation have been added to guide industry enterprises to continuously improve the low-temperature resistance of new energy vehicle products. These performance indicators are closely related to power batteries, and the improvement of standards is expected to drive the survival of the fittest in the lithium battery industry.
3.Civil explosions
The civil explosive sector is active today, with Huatai, Kailong shares, and potted shares rising to the limit.
According to Xinhua News Agency, recently, the National People's Working Committee said that a complete ban on fireworks and firecrackers is illegal, and local governments need to revise the ban on fireworks.
Nomura Oriental believes that as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, the recent adjustment of fireworks and firecrackers policies in various places has led to an upward demand for fireworks and firecrackers, and related upstream raw materials are expected to benefit, and the market's attention to the civil explosive sector has increased.
4.Big spending
In addition to photovoltaic and lithium batteries, there is also large consumption that supports the index today. Shede Liquor rose by the limit, China Duty Free Bottom Juyang rose 8%, Kweichow Moutai rose 3%, and Wuliangye rose 4%. Both transactions entered the top 5.
Catalyzically, according to a report by China ** Daily, it was learned from liquor distributors that the ex-factory price of Kweichow Moutai's series of liquor products, Sauce Fragrance Classic, was raised by 10 yuan to 218 yuan bottles, and the price of Golden Prince Liquor was raised by 20 yuan to 178 yuan bottles. The ex-factory price of Jian Nanchun's core product, the crystal sword, will also be increased by 20 yuan bottles.
The end of the year is approaching the Spring Festival, and liquor, as a party scene product, has become the consensus of the industry to increase prices at the end of the year.
Nanjing ** believes that at present, wine companies have opened the 24 Spring Festival red payment, due to this year's Spring Festival time is later than in previous years, the current wine companies are still digesting inventory, gradually collecting money, the actual situation needs to wait for late December to January to observe the channel collection. In terms of valuation, as of December 22, 2023, Shenwan Baijiu PE2429 (TTM), which is at 3At the 17% quantile level, the cost performance of the plate is gradually emerging.
Hua Chuang** said that 2024 will become the beginning of the gradual recovery of the liquor industry, and the good start in the first quarter of 24 is likely to become an inflection point for the liquor industryIt is expected that the inventory side of the Spring Festival in 24 years will be stable and reasonable, and the demand side is expected to show a recovery trend.
On the whole, on the penultimate trading day before the holiday, under the condition of tight funds, the index rose sharply, and the northbound capital inflow exceeded 10 billion. On the subject matter, the track stocks have little resistance and large gains, while the early capital group stocks have collapsed, and many stocks such as high-tech development, Yinbaoshan new, and leading shares have fallen to the limit.
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