Private Equity Witch" Li Bei released the article "Forcing Short" on Banxia Investment Official Weibo. The article mentions that private equity, public offering, insurance and foreign capital are not enough, and they all have performance benchmarks. After losing money for consecutive years, it has fallen more than the benchmark, and if ** can't keep up, (they) can only be laid off. A week ago, Li Bei mentioned at the event that the end of this year, the beginning of next year is a very important change point, at the beginning of the year, everyone will start a new round of asset allocation, will re-evaluate to see who is more cost-effective, and some smart money may re-enter China.
Full Text:
Forced short
A large-scale Dayang line, thousands of troops come to see each other.
Is there enough private placements?No.
Is the insurance sufficient?
No. 
Is there enough for the public offering**?
It seems that there is, but in fact it can be considered that there is none.
Yesterday's CSI 300 Index **234%, partial stock mixed **index**158% 1.58/2.34=0.67
Is there enough foreign capital?
No. 
Who bought the chips at the bottom?
Industrial capital and national team.
Industrial capital. 
etf
Will these chips be thrown in the short term?
Apparently not. Private Equity, Insurance, Public Offering, Foreign Capital, Do They Have Performance Benchmarks?
Both. CSI 300 Index, or MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
What happens if you can't keep up with the benchmarks?
It has been losing money for 2 or 3 years in a row, and it has fallen as much as the benchmark, or even more than the benchmark, and if you can't keep up, you can only be laid off.
The end of the year and the beginning of the year are an important time
There is still a trading day before the new year begins, and a new round of institutional greyhound racing is about to begin. There is not much time left for the martial arts people to lay out the new season. Whoever can grab the most ** in Huang Shilang's bunker, who will not be able to keep up with the performance benchmark, and who will run faster than whom.
Is the fundamentals and liquidity supportive in the medium term?
See: Dollar Twilight (1).
The rise of RMB assets in the US dollar twilight (2).
P.S. The content of the conversation from a week ago:
The follow-up policy package will be out, and the effect will exceed expectations
Fang Sanwen: Throw this question to Li Bei, if it is up to you to decide, what policy do you think can be used to solve this matter together?
Li Bei: I have sorted out and summarized the policy packages that have been issued, and I think it is actually enough, but it has not been thrown out yet, for example, 1 trillion long-term construction bonds have just been issued, but this money has not yet begun to be spent. For example, the PSL, which has been in preparation for several months, is a policy-based financial support, which is aimed at the transformation of urban villages, and this money has been planned for a period of time, and it is said that it will be issued at the end of December or early January, and this is another 1 trillion yuan. These things are bullets, they are ready, but they have not been thrown yet. It is very likely that there will be another $1 trillion in special government bonds next year. In addition, we see that there are a lot of creative initiatives at the local level, which now restricts the borrowing of local **, but some places have restructured the urban investment so that financing can be expanded. In the face of the situation of reducing debt, many places are very creative. For the current policy package, I think it is actually sufficient. Why are there some overseas experts, such as US Treasury Secretary Yellen, feel that it is not enough, because he only looks at the narrow deficit and narrow currency, in fact, China has two special things, one is called policy banks, that is, China Development Bank, Export-Import Bank, one is called local **, and state-owned enterprises under local **, such as urban investment companies, the combination of these two things is very magical, and money can be given to local governments through policy banks Urban investment companies, invested in specific areas, neither fiscal nor currency, seem not to be a policy, but in fact it is a very strong policy, because there is a strong leverage effect, a very low cost, and a strong targeting. The reason why foreigners can't understand it is because they don't have urban investment or policy banks, and this thing is very powerful. Therefore, my personal judgment is that with the follow-up policy package coming out, the effect should exceed many people's expectations.
Fang Sanwen: What do you mean now that the policy is in place and the money is ready, but it hasn't been dropped yet?
Li Bei: The policy has been prepared, but it has not been issued yet.
The beginning of next year is a very important change
Fang Sanwen: Is it that as soon as it is issued, the market will rise?
Li BeiIf I want to analyze why the recent economic data is not bad, but the market is not good recently, because there is a very important stock of investors at the end of the year.
For example, we can compare the data of the Insurance Association and the ** Industry Association in both directions, and find that insurance companies redeemed tens of billions of active public offerings in October. In the second half of the year, foreign capital is the same, everyone looks at the northbound has been selling. Because their investment decision-making and rebalancing process is relatively long.
So I personally believe that the power of institutional rebalancing and liquidation played a very major role at the end of the year, which is redemption. But this thing will probably end at the end of the year, I tend to end this year, the beginning of next year is a very important change point, at the beginning of the year everyone will start a new round of asset allocation, will re-evaluate to see who is more cost-effective, some smart money may re-enter China. There are also some domestic funds that may choose to enter ** with a high probability, such as insurance companies. At the beginning of this year, the interest rate of urban investment bonds was slightly worse than that, and it was generally above %, and it was also possible to invest in the non-standard of local **, which could achieve a relatively high rate of return without investing in A-shares. In the past two or three years, looking at the data of the Insurance Association, the average allocation ratio of insurance companies in ** and ** is about 13%, which is actually very low, with a historical high of more than 25%.More than 5% of the policy, but now basically except for **, other assets can not be provided 3More than 5% of the return, the interest rate of urban investment is only about 3%, non-standard gradually gone, with the maturity of bonds and non-standard maturity, insurance companies basically can not find other assets to give 35% return or more, but the policy sold is 3More than 5%, what to do?I can only enter **, and now I see that the dividend yield of the CSI 300 index is greater than 35%。It can also be held in some forms in accounting, only the dividend income is not counted, and the fluctuation is not counted. Two or three weeks ago, Chinese Life and Xinhua Insurance jointly established a 50 billion private placement ** to invest in A-shares, why do you do this form?Because through this form, this investment can be counted in the long-term equity investment, that is to say, there is no need to mark the market, and the fluctuation of ** does not affect the statement, but the dividend can be calculated into the income. With such a better institutional arrangement, I personally tend to increase the proportion of insurance companies in the market next year, the entire volume of insurance companies is more than 29 trillion, and now the allocation ratio is only 12%, and the high point is greater than 25%. Even if it's only 5%, it's 15 trillion, now the entire foreign capital, the entire northbound sum is 1A little more than 5 trillion. So I'm optimistic about next year, and I believe that the economic policy package will be sufficient. Even if you take a step back and the economic policy is not enough, assuming that there is no recovery next year, it doesn't matter, think back to 2014 was the economy good?Very poor. But is it good?Rising randomly, why is it rising randomly?Asset shortage.
As a stock investor, there is no way to provide a rate of return when I see other assets, so I can only come in ** votes. This year, because the outflow of foreign capital suppressed the impact of the asset shortage on the behavior of institutions, the outflow of foreign capital has become the main contradiction, but it will not be next year, and the foreign capital that should be sold at the end of the year is almost sold, I personally tend that even if the economy does not recover next year, the asset shortage will become a more major contradiction, not to mention that the economy may still recover. The timing of this change may be at the end of the year and the beginning of the year.
Fang Sanwen: What do you mean that when the foreign ** managers finish the Christmas holidays, and the Chinese ** managers finish the Spring Festival, and when the spring flowers bloom, they start to build positions again, and everything will be fine?
Li Bei: You don't even need to wait until after the Chinese New Year. Because the assessment of the institution is not based on the lunar calendar, but on the Gregorian calendar, since it is based on the Gregorian calendar, it is very likely that the Gregorian calendar will start working on the New Year.
Fang Sanwen: It sounds like it's after New Year's Day, before the Spring Festival.
Li Bei: This is my personal judgment to give you a reference. If our judgment is correct, it is now basically called pre-dawn.
Article**: National Business Daily).