The war in Ukraine is less than 2 months away and will turn 2 years old. According to US media reports, Russia's Putin has been hinting through various channels recently that the war can be ended. He also said that Putin hopes to end the war by March next year. So, is Putin really "tired"?How long can the war in Ukraine be fought?
According to two former Russian ** who are close to the Kremlin, as well as the United States and international ** who received information from Putin's special envoy, Putin has been signaling through intermediaries since at least September that he is open to a ceasefire, ieFreeze the battle according to the current front.
According to the report, Putin's recent public statements are a "bluff", saying that he wants to end the war by March next year. This is in effect a hint that Putin has shown war fatigue.
It is undeniable that the attrition of the war coupled with severe sanctions has indeed brought considerable difficulties to Russia. It will indeed be very difficult for Russia to continue to fight for a long time. What's more, from time to time, some "discordant" voices are heard in Russia.
From this point of view, it does make sense to say that Putin is tired and anxious to end the war.
However, is Putin really tired?Does Putin really want to end the war as soon as possible?Not necessarily, I'm afraid.
As stated in an article entitled "Putin Moves Confidently to 2024" published by Australia's Lowy Institute for International Policy on December 19, the time for the war in Ukraine is on Russia's side.
Although Ukraine is still in a state of mutual offensive and defensive stalemate on the battlefield, it is an indisputable fact that Russia has always held the initiative on the battlefield. It is also an indisputable fact that the Ukrainian side's "big **" that has been carried out for half a year has failed. The United States and Europe no longer see the light of hope for victory.
Ukraine's will to war and war potential are almost exhausted, the United States and Europe have also clearly revealed Ukraine's "tired fatigue signs", Russia's economic situation is much better than expected, and the attention diverted by the war in Kazakhstan, etcThis shows that Russia's ability to control the battlefield situation is increasing, not weakening.
It is true to say that Putin wants an early end to the war, but it is probably not entirely true to say that Putin is eager to end the war as soon as possible.
First of all, Russia has not yet fully or truly achieved the "action goal" it set at the beginning. That is, the liberation of Donbass and the "demilitarization", "denazification" and the adoption of a "neutral" position of Ukraine.
The Ukrainian army is still fighting, Zelensky is still actively increasing the number of troops, and is still actively preparing for the 2024 big **. NATO also leaves the door open for Ukraine to join the treaty. Biden is still trying to do everything possible to raise money and ammunition for Ukraine. Wait a minute. All this shows that it will be difficult to achieve the "action goals" for a while, Putin will not be ignorant.
Putin is unlikely to be in a hurry to end the war without fully achieving the goals of action he set for the time at the moment.
In fact, for Putin, the end of the war is not just the achievement of operational goals. One of the most important is to depend on the attitude of the United States.
This war is the result of the "arch fire" of Biden in the United States. And Biden made it clear at the beginning of the war that the goal is to weaken Russia through protracted war and sanctions.
Putin did not easily achieve the goals of the special operation, and Biden clearly did not easily achieve the goals of the war in Ukraine. At present, both the United States and Russia have borne huge attrition and have not achieved their goals. This war is not only between Russia and Ukraine, but a war between the United States and Russia. It is impossible to stop the war easily without distinguishing between winners and losers.
It is a defeat for the United States to end the war when the United States has made huge contributions and Russia has not been weakened and dragged down. The Americans will not accept such an outcome.
While winning or losing on the battlefield is important, what matters most is what kind of relationship the United States and Russia will have after the war ends. That is, what kind of strategic balance to establish.
The war in Ukraine is the biggest security crisis facing Europe since World War II. In the words of the British, they did not expect the war to come to Europe again.
Now that the security order in Europe has been broken, a new security mechanism must be established after the war. And how to build?What kind of mechanism should be established?I'm afraid it's tougher than competing on the battlefield.
Not to mention how to establish a strategic balance with Russia after the war, it is a difficult point on how to lift sanctions.
When sanctions are lifted, we face the need to restore normal economic and trade relations. If the sanctions are not lifted, then it will still be hostile. There will be no security in Europe unless the crisis is resolved. You have to keep consuming. This is not in the interests of Europe.
On this issue, it is difficult for both the United States and Europe to deal with it. The important thing is that the positions of the United States and Europe will not be completely identical.
The United States certainly hopes to isolate Russia from the European security system, and even more so to continue to suppress Russia economically. Europe, on the other hand, has to face Russia, an important neighbor.
If Europe is allowed to contain and suppress Russia as the United States wants, will Europe be willing to do it?Apparently not. Then it will become a pawn of the United States again, and if we talk about strategic independence, Europe will never be at peace.
And if Europe and Russia are allowed to establish a strategic balance relationship, and the United States' strategy of controlling Europe through war or letting Europe use for its own use will completely fail, it really means that Europe can be independent, and the United States will certainly not want to.
Therefore, at present, it is not a question of whether Ukraine wants a truce, but that the United States, Russia and Europe have not thought about what to do after the warTherefore, this war must be continued.
Of course, the intensity must be reducedIt must be guaranteed that the war does not spill over, and that Zelensky does not surrender. Because of this, Biden is very anxious to provide support to Ukraine. And some countries in Europe have also vowed to strongly support Ukraine, just for fear of Zelensky's sudden surrender.
And for Russia, the attrition of a protracted war plus sanctions is definitely not good. However, now that the war has been fought to this extent, something must be gained.
At present, it seems that the independence or annexation of the Donbas region to Russia is obviously not enough to make up for the losses of this war, and it is necessary to expand the territorial claim.
At the very beginning of the war, we realized that Putin's target was the entire eastern part of Ukraine bordered by the Dnieper.
Putin's goal cannot be the whole of Ukraine, and Putin should be clear about the truth that greed is not enough to swallow elephants. The goal of making the eastern region of Ukraine independent or annexing it to Russia is very realistic. Now it seems to be feasible.
And if this vast region is to be incorporated into Russia, the longer the military occupation lasts, the more beneficial it will be to Russia. After all, Russia and Ukraine used to be a whole in the past, and there are still feelings to some extent, and it is not impossible for the people in eastern Ukraine to be able to end the war as soon as possible by merging into Russia. And if Russia can become stronger because of this war, it will be profitable to join Russia.
After occupying it for a long time, it is natural to accept it. The important thing is that the longer the war is fought, the less hopeless it is for Ukraine. Rather than remain in a Ukraine that has no future, it is better to incorporate into Russia.
It is impossible for Ukraine to join NATO. Although the EU has started the process of Ukraine's accession to the EU, there is still a huge question mark over whether it can finally be realized. Not closing the door to NATO, and starting the EU accession process, is nothing more than a pie for the Ukrainians who persist in the war.
Although a protracted war is very unfavorable for Russia, the most difficult period for Russia has passed. At present, Russia's economic situation is constantly improving, and the people's livelihood has not been greatly affected.
The Russian people should be clear that Russia has no choice but to fight this war. WhileMaking a certain sacrifice can be exchanged for a large area of land in eastern Ukraine, both in terms of economic and strategic interests, and this war is very worthwhile. Therefore, the political situation in Russia is also relatively stable.
The Israeli-Kazakh war diverted the world's attention and strategically formed a huge containment on the United States. The scales of victory are tilting in Russia's favor. Ukraine's big ** has failed, and it will be difficult to organize a big ** again. At the moment, it is really persistence is victory.
What is also beneficial to Russia is the continuous escalation of Sino-Russian cooperation. Although China will not provide battlefield support, China has made Russia have no worries and is an important support force for the Russian economy.
The national strength and influence of India and Turkey are not low, and the important thing is that they have become important energy exporters for Russia. And Iran's cooperation with Russia is probably even more comprehensive. Today, relations between Russia and Saudi Arabia and the UAE are also rapidly escalating. This is really very beneficial to Russia, and it also means that more and more Middle East and developing countries will strengthen their cooperative relations with Russia, especially when the United States seriously undermines the world's industrial chain, Russia's energy, grain and fertilizer are urgently needed by developing countries.
There is also a North Korea. Recently, Russia and the DPRK have upgraded their strategic partnership, and the greatest use of the DPRK is its impressive military production capacity, which is quite important for fighting a war of attrition.
Whether it is to focus on the eastern part of the country or to the post-war relations with Europe, it is necessary to achieve victory on the battlefield. Only victory has more say or leverage. It is time to wear down Europe's strength and will through a protracted war. In this way, we will be able to seize the initiative in the post-war peace talks. Therefore, Putin may not be in a hurry.
Therefore, Putin will not rush to end the war unless Ukraine completely surrenders. The question now is not whether Russia wants a truce, but whether the United States and Europe can sway Zelensky's mood. It should be a high probability that the war in Ukraine will be fought at a low intensity for another year.