In the past 2023, the world economy has experienced great challenges, and has been hit by events such as US dollar interest rate hikes, geopolitical conflicts, ** shrinkage, debt crisis, industrial chain restructuring and competition.
The United States uses the US dollar to raise interest rates to harvest wealth frantically, attracting global capital to return to the United States, the exchange rates of many currencies have plummeted, the global economy is struggling in the whirlpool of US dollar interest rate hikes, and the performance of the global financial market is different, or skyrocketing, or **, full of crises.
As the world's three largest economies, China, the United States and Europe will perform differently in 2023, and since China, the United States and Europe have not yet released the economic data for the last quarter, the first three quarters of 2023 will be used for analysis.
First of all, the United States as a whole is in the stage of raising interest rates in 2023, and global capital as a whole is in a trend of continuous flow to the United States, with the U.S. economy growing strongly throughout the first half of the year and slowing down in the second half of the year.
Due to the difference in the way GDP is calculated, the United States usually uses the "quarter-on-quarter annualized rate" to calculate economic growth, while China uses the year-on-year growth rate, and the United States GDP will grow at an annualized rate of 49%, and China's GDP growth in the third quarter was also 49%。
So, these data give the illusion that the US economy is growing very strongly and has caught up with us, but it is not, and the US grew by 4 in the third quarter9%, which refers to the result of the calculation of the annualized rate of the previous month, an increase of 12%, annualized followed by 49%。
If we calculate by our year-on-year growth rate, US GDP in the third quarter increased by 27%, while China's third quarter increased by 49%, in terms of economic growth, China is still ahead of the United States.
In fact, the U.S. was able to achieve 2The year-on-year growth rate of 7%, looking at the developed countries in the world, is already a leading existence, after all, it has been "blood-sucking" the global economy by raising interest rates for nearly 2 years, and it would be really strange if the economy could not rise.
In contrast, the economic performance of the EU-27 is weak, according to the latest data released by the EU, the EU-27 GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2023 was zero, with a year-on-year increase of 04%, while the United States increased by 2 in the first three quarters5%, China's GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5 percent year-on-year2%。
Therefore, in terms of economic growth, China is still ahead of the United States and the European Union, of which the performance of the European Union has obvious signs of recession.
In particular, Germany, as the "locomotive" of the European economy, saw its GDP fall by 0 percent year-on-year in the first three quarters4%, the only country with negative growth among the top 10 global GDP, not only did not become the "locomotive", but became the most important factor dragging down the European economy.
Not only Germany, but also France, whose GDP grew by 03%, which is lower than the average growth rate of the European Union, and Italy, whose year-on-year growth rate in the first three quarters was directly zero, and the risk of the European economy falling into recession is very high.
However, if you look at the total GDP, it is the opposite, the EU economic growth rate is very low, but the total GDP has reached a new high, and the GDP of the 27 EU countries will reach 13$52 trillion.
The main reason is that the inflation rate of European countries has hit a 10-year high, which has made a "huge contribution" to GDP, and the real growth of GDP is very poor, coupled with the direct take-off of the inflation rate, the total GDP has risen in a straight line, and the exchange rate of the euro has also risen significantly, so the overall GDP of Europe has reached a new high, but this kind of data is difficult to maintain, and it cannot hide the risk of its internal economic recession.
The same is true for the United States, where GDP reached 2027 trillion US dollars, also a new high, although the real growth rate is not as good as China, but the inflation rate in the United States is also very high, coupled with the strength of the dollar exchange rate, resulting in the widening of the GDP gap between China and the United States.
In the first three quarters, China's GDP reached 13 trillion US dollars, lower than the European Union, due to China's low inflation rate, CPI has been below 1% for several months, low inflation does not play much role in the improvement of GDP, and the RMB exchange rate is also depreciating, the performance is not as good as the euro, so GDP is overtaken by the European Union.
In fact, under the combined effect of exchange rate fluctuations and inflation rate gaps, coupled with the differences in statistical methods of various countries, GDP cannot fully and truly reflect the level of economic development of a country, and can only be used as a reference data.
In 2024, the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates, and the world economy will enter a new cycle, with a large amount of capital gradually flowing out of the United States and to the world, gradually raising global assets**, but the risks and opportunities behind it coexist, the dollar will turn to depreciation, and the RMB is expected to start a medium and long-term appreciation.
The world economy is constantly changing, constantly advancing in competition and cooperation, and difficult to move forward in friction and conflict, and various uncertainties will also affect the future direction of the world economy.