I. Introduction. Recently, Japan released GDP data for the third quarter of 2023, so far, the economic data of China, the United States and Japan for the first three quarters of this year have all been released. The three economies are facing different situations and problems.
2. Japan's economic data.
In the third quarter of 2023, Japan's GDP fell by 05%, which is the first time since 2022 that Japan has experienced negative GDP growth. In the first three quarters, Japan's GDP grew by 17%, of which the first quarter increased by 2% year-on-year and the second quarter increased by 17%, a year-on-year increase of 12%。Japan's major economic indicators such as exports, investment, and consumption all contributed negatively to GDP growth.
3. The reason why Japan's GDP has been surpassed by Germany.
Japan's GDP has been surpassed by Germany for two main reasons: first, the yen has depreciated sharply against the US dollar, and the GDP growth rate is underestimated when converted to the US dollar, and second, Japan's serious population aging and declining birthrate have led to a continuous decline in domestic consumption and investment.
Fourth, the reason why Germany has become the third largest economy.
Although Germany's economic situation is not optimistic and the manufacturing data is not good, the reason why its GDP can surpass Japan is mainly because the Russian-Ukrainian war has led to a sharp increase in Germany's energy import costs, which has pushed up the price level, and the consumption expenditure of residents has increased, making Germany's GDP data appear inflated to a certain extent.
5. The situation and reasons for the U.S. economic data.
The GDP of the United States in the first three quarters reached 2027 trillion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 24%。The reason for the higher growth rate is that the Fed's continued interest rate hikes have pushed up the dollar exchange rate, and the GDP calculation is based on the US dollar, while the price level in the United States is still high, which has also led to an increase in consumer spending.
Sixth, China's economic situation.
China's GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5% year-on-year2%, the growth rate ranks among the highest in the world, mainly due to the economic growth potential brought about by the continuous reform and opening up policy. However, the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate has also led to a certain underestimation of China's GDP.
7. Looking forward to the changes in the GDP gap between China and the United States.
Looking ahead, as the Federal Reserve may stop raising interest rates, the GDP growth rate of the United States may fall, and China's economy will further recover under the policy stimulus, and the GDP growth rate may accelerate. This will further narrow the GDP gap between China and the United States.