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Wenxing
Seeing that the Shanghai Composite Index is always hovering around 3,000 points, there is always a feeling of tastelessness and pity to abandon it. This feeling is even stronger when we think back to the various initiatives we have taken since July this year to be active**. Since the high-level Politburo meeting in July proposed to "activate the capital market and boost investor confidence", all kinds of "small essays" in the A** field have gone viral. With the introduction of the "package" of policy measures to activate the capital market by the China Securities Regulatory Commission on August 18, all parties in the society have launched extensive discussions on relevant measures, with both pessimistic and optimistic remarks. However, discussions about the suspension of IPOs, the suspension of refinancing, the implementation of T+0, and the reduction of stamp duty have all become "small essays". The author will talk about one issue today: the profit of enterprises. Because there is no profit of the enterprise, where is the foundation of the enterprise?
The author collected the relevant data of Toyota Motor in Japan to see the real situation of the company's survival, that is, whether it can make money.
Recently, Toyota Motor announced its financial results for the first half of fiscal year 2024 (April-September 2023), with a net profit of about RMB 129 billion in the first half of the year. In addition, because of the good performance in the first half of the year, Toyota Motor also raised its profit forecast for the entire 2024 fiscal year to 45 trillion yen, about 215.3 billion yuan. This result exceeded analysts' expectations and also showed Toyota's strong performance in the global market. It should be said that Akio Toyoda, chairman of Toyota Motors, is in a good mood. Toyota's cumulative global vehicle production exceeded 300 million units, equivalent to 3Produce a new car in 5 seconds. Among them, the best-selling Corolla has produced nearly 53.4 million units. At the same time, Toyota's earning power has finally recovered. Judging from the financial report for the first half of April to September, Toyota's profit margin was 118%, surpassing rival Tesla for the first time in five years, and its net profit in the past three months is more than five times that of Tesla. From July to September this year, Tesla's net profit was 41US$700 million, down 22% year-on-year, with a profit margin of 179%, down from the second quarter and the same period last year. Recently, when I saw Musk's news, I always felt that he was not as happy as Akio Toyoda, not only Tesla's profits were declining, but he was also threatened by advertisers, and he was also foul spoken in public interviews, and his mood was definitely not good. Although the author supports Musk's attitude that he doesn't care about advertisers, he still underestimates Toyota.
For example, with the rise of China's new energy vehicles, the voice of singing about the decline of Japanese cars is endless. BYD's sales volume ranked first in the six countries for a consecutive year, and GAC Mitsubishi's dismal withdrawal from the Chinese market and other events seem to symbolize that Japanese fuel vehicles are about to be replaced. Toyota's re-election to the "throne" of global car sales this year is almost a certainty. First of all, I would like to briefly explain that the fiscal year 2024 for Japanese automakers such as Toyota will start in April 2023 and end in March 2024. Therefore, the company's recent July-September data is actually the financial results of the second quarter.
After comparison, the author came to the first conclusion: Toyota's profitability exceeds that of Tesla. The highest record for the year-to-date net profit of Japanese companies was 498 trillion yen. Currently Toyota is operating at 285 trillion yen ranked second. If FY2024 achieves 3With a net profit of 95 trillion yen, Toyota Motor is one step closer to the No. 1 SoftBank Group. Tesla's net profit for the last quarter was 18$5.3 billion, a year-on-year decline of 44%, which is only one-fifth of Toyota's.
The second conclusion after the comparison is a bit sad. The author has counted the net profit of 10 Chinese car companies in the first half of 2023 based on public data: BYD 109500 million yuan, the Great Wall 136.1 billion yuan, Geely 15700 million yuan, Chang'an 765.3 billion yuan, Chery 61.9 billion yuan, GAC Group 296.6 billion yuan, SAIC 70900 million yuan, Dongfeng Group is expected to be 138.2 billion yuan, ideal 324.4 billion yuan, JAC 1500 million yuan, a total of 369900 million yuan. These 10 car companies basically cover the mainstream players of Chinese auto brands, and there are no car companies such as Weilai, Xiaopeng, and Wenjie, because the profits of these car companies are all negative: NIO-1092.6 billion yuan, Xpeng-51400 million yuan, zero run -227.6 billion yuan, ZEEKR-387.1 billion yuan, Wenjie -229.4 billion yuan, totaling -2450.7 billion yuan.
Isn't it a little sad?On the one hand, China's new energy vehicles, which continue to launch various new products, are very eye-catching, and the degree of intelligence of China's automobiles is indeed far ahead. There is no controversy about this, especially at the Munich Motor Show and the recent Guangzhou Motor Show, you can see the picture of overseas car companies paying attention to the inspection of China's smart cars, and one of the facts in front of everyone is that Chinese car companies are improving. On the one hand, the financial statements tell us bluntly: in the first half of 2023, the profits of the 10 Chinese car companies will be less than one-third of Toyota's. This reminds me of a word: applause or not.
We can see the existing problems, or there are structural differences, maybe in time, China's cars will have a comprehensive lead day, not only praise the progress of science and technology, but also praise the sales. However, we also need to be clear about the fact that in 2023, the overseas economy as a whole will perform better than expected. As of the third quarter, the economy continued to "climb", and structurally, emerging and developing economies outperformed developed economies. The former is bright in Asia and Latin America, while the latter is strong in the United States and Japan, and weak in Europe. Toyota's muffled fortune also gave the author a wake-up call: the fluctuation of the first is a part of economic development, maybe it is a barometer of the economy, maybe only a part of the economic activities, but our own good or bad, must be related to the profitability of the listed companies that make up the first company, there is no profit base of the listed company, its stock price is the moon in the water, the flower in the mirror.
This article was first published in Financial Investment News
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