This article has a total of 3053wordRead it for about 5 minutesFinancial Investment News reporter Lin KeIn November, the index was under obvious pressure on the index on the 60th day. After entering December, there is not much trading time left this year, and all institutions need a "meal**" to recharge the book. Therefore, with the gradual improvement of some suppressive factors in the early stage, superimposed on the policy expectations at the end of the year, the market may develop for the better.
Many institutions have released the latest research reports saying that at the end of the year, the index can be light and heavy, especially the theme sector with high market attention in the technology camp is generally optimistic. In addition, the defensive sector is also one of the main lines that have been favored in the recent market**.
December opportunity in the eyes of institutions
China Securities Construction Investment**: Increase the proportion of defensive sectors
The downside risk of the economy has gradually eased, but most industries in the highly related sectors of the economy have gradually entered the off-season at the end of the year, although consumption has rebounded seasonally, there is still pressure in the context of the expectation of residents' consumption income has not been significantly repaired, and the overall allocation has appropriately increased the proportion of defensive sectorsOn the other hand, technology improved quarter-on-quarter, maintaining overweight.
Specifically, the defensive sector continues to recommend high-dividend sectors such as coal and ** operators;In addition, the technology sector has improved quarter-on-quarter and continues to be recommendedHuawei's industry chain, AI industry chain (HBM storage), semiconductor equipment, and intelligent drivingand the continuous promotion of policiesData elementsplates;Finally, other sectors with good fundamentals in the fourth quarter are recommendedWind power, composite current collectors, pharmaceuticals and building materials
China Post**: Or optimistic
After a round of adjustment since the end of October, the market has recently shown a more obvious adjustment trend. Looking ahead, we believe that in the event of the improvement of Sino-US relations, the short-term market trading Fed interest rate hike is expected to be more sufficient, the driving force of the improvement of the external environment on the market has been marginally weakened, and the main driving factor of the follow-up may be domestic economic and policy expectations. From a fundamental point of view, the economic data in October diverged, the PMI returned to below the boom and wither line, exports fell short of expectations, and the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises fell back, all pointing to the slowdown in the momentum of economic recovery, but social zero and industrial production still showed a steady recovery trend.
From the perspective of capital, the outflow trend of northbound funds has slowed down under the condition of easing external disturbances, but the uncertainty of macro expectations is still strong, and more investors still choose to wait and see, and the overall capital side of the market shows a more obvious stock pattern.
We believe that under the condition that a variety of factors at home and abroad are expected to improve, the follow-up market** may be optimistic. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to pay attention to the real estate chain that benefits from the increase in policy stimulus and the acceleration of the three major projectsAt the same time, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to investment opportunities in the technology sector, including semiconductors and consumer electronics, which benefit from Huawei's catalysis and are expected to bottom out in the cycleIt is recommended to pay attention to the automotive chain that has a high degree of industry prosperity and benefits from the catalysis of Huawei's automobiles and intelligent drivingIn addition, it is recommended to pay attention to the pharmaceutical and biological sectors with low valuations and catalyzed by influenza and mycoplasma pneumonia.
IFC**: Not over yet
Looking forward to December, the momentum of A-shares** is likely to remain "single" due to the downward impact of U.S. bond interest rates, and U.S. bond interest rates have released downward pressure to a large extent as early as November, so the momentum or margin for pushing up A-shares at the end of the year may weaken. Of course, the market is still looking forward to the policy expectations at the end of the year, if the "easy money", "easy fiscal" and other expectations are realized, the market momentum may increase. To sum up, we believe that this round of A-share *** has not yet ended, but in the short term, the momentum may weaken month-on-month, maintain a cautious and optimistic attitude, and recommend not chasing high, but dare to intervene in the dip.
Looking ahead to December, we judge that the growth style will continue to be the main line of the market, among which, it is expected that the logic of thematic investment, small and mid-cap, and even micro-cap dominance will remain unchanged with a high probability. In terms of industry allocation, we will wait for liquidity constraints and pessimism to ease, and maintain a firm grasp of the growth theme of "grabbing the best", and it is recommended to pay attention to automobiles, especially "smart cars and unmanned driving".AI is particularly bullish on electronics, media and computersPharmaceutical biology, especially CXO and innovative drugs;Mechanical automation, including robots, industrial machine tools, etc., benefit more from the bottom of the industry business cyclePower equipment is expected to benefit from the marginal improvement in supply and demand and the easing of Sino-US relations.
Xinda**: The power of reversal continues to accumulate
The power of reversal is accumulating. Looking ahead to the next six months, we believe there are three reversal forces in A-shares. The first is the policy bottom and over-fall repair. As the trend of the AI industry has not been falsified, and the negative impact of Internet regulation and the epidemic on computer and media fundamentals has basically ended, it is difficult for TMT valuations to fall back to the original point, and the quarterly adjustment may have been relatively sufficient, and it is expected to gradually stop falling. The second is the reversal of the inventory cycle. The inventory cycle is the most important force in the short-cycle fluctuations of the economy. The inventory cycle will not disappear, and once reversed, it will have a positive impact on ** for more than half a year. From 1990 to 2009, the Nikkei 225 index was prone to appear for more than half a year in the two decades when the Japanese economy lost two decades, from the end of the inventory cycle decline to the beginning of the recovery. The third is that real estate sales have stabilized and improved. Real estate sales have fallen below reasonable demand levels, and with the change in policy, there is a possibility that sales will pick up in 2024. These three forces will exert force one after another, and will form three stages of reversal. The direct impact of the over-fall and the policy on the market will not exceed one quarter, and the weakest impact of the inventory cycle on the market may only be half a year, and once the real estate sales improve, the ** level will be annual.
Industry allocation suggests that track stocks that are over-falling at the end of the year may have a quarterly counterattack, overweight financial within half a year, and strategically allocate the upstream cycle within 1-2 years.
Technology prefers semiconductor equipment
At present, the downward cycle of the semiconductor boom is coming to an end, and China's semiconductor sales have been growing month-on-month for six consecutive months. Zhou Ershuang, an analyst at Soochow, pointed out that with the recovery of the downstream boom, the revenue of the top three domestic packaging and testing factories has increased quarter-on-quarter for three consecutive quarters, and the year-on-year decline has narrowed, and it is expected to return to positive growth by the first quarter of 2024. In terms of market sentiment, there has been a significant easing, and in October 2023, the U.S. Department of Commerce updated the rules for export controls on semiconductor equipment, and the intensity and scope did not exceed expectations. In the context of the recovery of the semiconductor industry, we judge that semiconductor equipment, as one of the segments with the largest performance elasticity, is expected to fully benefit.
In terms of industry judgment, Lv Juan, an analyst at China Securities Construction Investment, pointed out that major overseas semiconductor equipment companies believe that in 2023, affected by the overall semiconductor cycle, downstream demand is insufficient, resulting in a low fab utilization rate in 2023, and is cautious about equipment capital expenditure in 2023, and the investment of Chinese mainland fab customers in mature nodes has formed a certain support for demand. Looking ahead, it is expected that the semiconductor market is expected to bottom out in 2024, and the demand for semiconductor equipment will improve significantly from 2024 to 2025.
We judge that the batch bidding for domestic equipment from domestic leading wafer factories will start in the fourth quarter of 2023, and the orders of domestic equipment enterprises will increase significantly, and the follow-up catalyst of the sector will continue. Lv Juan said that the follow-up will mainly focus on the progress of downstream bidding, the increase in the localization rate and the progress of advanced process verification of equipment enterprises. Considering the valuation, order performance and comprehensive strength, it is recommended to pay attentionNAURA Huachuang；It is recommended to pay attention to the flexibility of benefiting storage manufacturers to expand productionChina Micro Corporation, Huahai Qingke, Tuojing Technology, Shengmei Shanghai；As well as the link with a low localization rate, it is recommended to pay attentionXinyuan micro, precision measurement electronics, micro nanoWait.
A selection of potential stocks
North Huachuang (002371).
Micro Corporation (688012).
Huahai Qingke (688120).
Xinyuan Micro (688037).
Defend against big finance
"Accelerating the construction of a financial power" was proposed for the first time, and the current key work in the financial field is still more inclined to stable growth and confidence. In the short term, the more important task of finance is to stabilize economic growth this year and next. With good expectations and low valuation advantages, investors appropriately allocate the large financial industry from a defensive perspective.
As a valuation depression in the banking sector, although the performance of some companies has shown negative growth, as the fundamentals bottom, valuation repair is expected to occur. Some industry insiders pointed out that the fundamentals of bank operations are expected to bottom out in 2024, pay attention to the strength of disposal and liquidation after the confirmation of banking risks, the inflection point of new loan interest rates, the bottoming of bank interest margins after the debt cost of all sectors of society is reduced, and the fiscal will make efforts to stabilize economic expectations in 2024, and continue to be optimistic about the performance of bank stocks.
At present, the valuation of the banking sector is at a low level, and after experiencing real estate risk exposure and the adjustment of existing mortgage interest rates, the potential negative impact of the sector has been significantly reduced, which means that the downside risk of valuation is very small. Chen Junliang, an analyst at Guosen**, pointed out that with the macroeconomic recovery, it is expected to promote the valuation repair of the banking sector. **In terms of aspects, first, it is recommended to lay out targets with excellent long-term prospects of fundamentals at the bottom of the valuation, and it is recommended to pay attention to themChina Merchants Bank, Bank of Ningbo, Bank of ChengduWait. Second, with the recovery of the real economy, it is recommended to pay attention to small rural commercial banks that are mainly small and medium-sized customers, includingChangshu Bank, Ruifeng Bank, Zhangjiagang Bank, Sunong BankWait.
Under the dual positive resonance of macro factors and capital market policy support, the elasticity of the brokerage sector is expected to be released quickly. Du Penghui, an analyst at Tianfeng**, pointed out that at the current stage, we should pay attention to the two main lines of restructuring expectations + performance elasticity. Relevant securities firms with the same shareholder background and do not meet the requirements of "one participation and one control" have certain restructuring expectations;In addition, optimistic about the amplification trend of trading volume under the continued activity of the capital market, it is recommended to pay attention to brokerages with a high proportion of brokerage + financial business. It is recommended to pay attentionChina Galaxy, CICC, Founder**