This week's overall is continuous, and the first half of the week is a difficult time for usBecause the overall ** follows the extreme emotional ** structure, and the logical hot value is under pressure, but the emotion alone is unsustainable. After the emotional suppression began on Wednesday, our model broke out again, and the overall layout of Tongfu, Wanxing, Jiulian, Gege, Xiaorun, etc. And there are two once up limits, ushering in a good return。Therefore, the market has cycles, and what we have to do is to step on the rhythm and do the model within our own cognition.
This week there are several new pronouns for artificial intelligence: AIPC, multimodal, Gaussian sputtering, MI300,And each keyword behind this represents different changes and upgrades in the industry. They are related and independent of each otherToday, we will focus on why AIPC represents a new era of intelligent terminals in the future
1. Driving factors:
1. The iterative penetration of AI PC in the Chinese market is expected to be completed soon, and the current period is only about 2 years. According to IDC**, the penetration rate of AI PCs (excluding AI tablets) in the Chinese market is 75% in 2023. On December 7, Lenovo announced that the AI PC industry*** will reach 85% by 2027 and become the mainstream of the PC market.
On the 15th, Intel China will launch a new generation of Core Ultra platform, which has 8 times the AI computing power of the previous generation. (So a further outbreak next week is not ruled out!)）
On the 7th of the month, it was reported that Microsoft is preparing AI computers. Fast Technology reported on December 7 that there are many signs that 2024 will be the first year of AI PC. In 2024, Canalys expects to achieve a market share of about 19% in total shipments of AI-enabled PCs. By 2027, 60% of PCs will be AI-capable.
It is reported that there are signs that Microsoft is working with computer manufacturers to design products with performance exceeding 40 tops to meet the requirements of the next-generation Windows Copilot (AI assistant) system. This new product has the potential to set a new standard for AI PCs in the Windows ecosystem.
2. Thinking and role of AI PC:
1. Intel was the first to propose the concept of AI PC and lead the next revolution of PC. In September this year, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger proposed a revolutionary concept of PC in Silicon Valley - AI PC.
2. AI PC, simply put, is a PC that can play with AI functions. AI can fundamentally change and reshape the user experience of PCs and unleash people's productivity and creativity through close collaboration between the cloud and PCs, or by running large language models independently on the computer. We are moving towards a new era of AI PCs today.
3. AI PC is far more capable than you think. AI has entered people's lives, and with Intel Core Ultra processors, AI PCs will be popularized. This will make it easier and more convenient for people to use AI functions. Everyone can show their artistic talent!All kinds of production masters, creators, and design creators will enjoy a wonderful life, and the core is unlimited.
4. AI PC has become a new trend in PC applications. Intel expects to ship more than 100 million AI PCs by 2025. The cooperation involves 100 ISV partners, covering more than 300 AI acceleration functions. (The audience is huge, and next year is the biggest explosion year.) ）
5. AI PC is a PC built on the three underlying computing engines of CPU, IGPU, and NPU. CPUs and GPUs have been listening to them for many years. Starting this year, everyone should be more familiar with the NPU, that is, the neural network processing unit, which is a dedicated AI engine.
6. The functions of AI PC are all-inclusive, including AI dubbing, voice changing, **conference eye correction, and generative AI, such as Wensheng text, Wensheng diagram, Wensheng** These functions. In addition, it will include AI cutout, gesture recognition, motion capture, and other wonderful features.
7. The role of truth: Whenever you encounter difficulties and are troubled, this function is like an invisible hand to help you remove obstacles - it is your smart friend, your dexterous assistant, always there, ready to help you solve the problem. This is the key, an all-round intelligent butler on the PC side, or Iron Man's: Jarvis!is the real prototype of the future of AI PC!In the future, each individual will be able to have their own AI PC and run their own "personal model", which will become an indispensable personal AI assistant for individuals, families, and enterprises.
Time is wealth, intelligence is innovation!A Core Ultra AI PC can simplify our operations, save our time, improve the convenience of work and life, unleash our creative inspiration, and ultimately bring us a better mood and a happier life. This is the core value of AI PC.
Third, the market **:
1. Consumer market:
In the next five years, the average unit price of AI laptops will be between 5,500-6,500 yuan, and the average unit price of AI desktop computers will be around 4,000 yuan, and after 2024, with the growth of demand and the improvement of AI performance, **will be steady**.
IDC**In the next five years, AI PC sales will be dominated by notebooks in consumer markets primarily for individuals and households, with combined sales of AI laptops and AI desktops climbing rapidly from 14.1 billion in 2023 to 131.2 billion in 2027, an increase of 83 times.
2. Small and medium-sized enterprise market.
Combined sales of AI laptops and AI desktops will climb rapidly from $3.2 billion in 2023 to $54.7 billion in 2027, a 16-fold increase.
3. Large enterprise market: AI notebooks and AI desktops have become popular simultaneously, and sales have increased by 190 times.
The combined sales of AI laptops and AI desktops will increase from 2300 million yuan will quickly climb to 44.9 billion yuan in 2027, an increase of 191 times.
Note: The above data and ** are from the original text.
Total: Total market space in 2023 = 141 + 32 + 23=175.300 million.
The total market space in 2027 = 1312 + 547 + 449 = 230.8 billion, which is 1316 times.
In the next four years, there is more than 13 times the room for growth. The 24-year expectation is 4% off in 27 years, that is, 91.2 billion, with a growth rate of 55 times!
Fourth, the beneficiary company: (only talk about part of it, but there is still one thing missing at the moment, that is, AI who will build enough, and this expectation is that the multi-modal + cloud large model can be completed, so in the end it will return to multi-modal, because of a business trip in Beijing, so only write here!If you have 500 likes, write a very explosive blockbuster theme tomorrow!)
Brand ODM: Huaqin Technology, Lenovo Group;
Power supply: Olympian Technology, Taijia shares;
Lightweight structural parts: Spring and Autumn Electronics, Everbright Tongchuang;
PC chip localization: Xidi Micro, Diao Micro, Juchen shares;
Software Ecology: iSoftStone, Thundertech;
The article is just a summary of personal trading, investment is risky, trading needs to be cautious!The plan never changes fast, everything follows the disk and moves, the content of the text belongs to personal ideas and records, as a record of my understanding of the market, only for personal sharing records, does not constitute any investment advice, for reference only, according to this trading, profit and loss at your own risk!
It is not easy to sort out the real number of data, your likes + ** comments + push oil rewards, is the driving force of our efforts, thank you!）
Overall situation: This week**overall as expected to continue** bearish to the 7th, and then**to the 8th, and the current overall expectation is a low point, and the core focus of next week is to see the breakthrough of the pressure of 3369 and 3410, if you can break through the overall is to see the pressure of 3451, and if you break through 3410 as a whole is to see the long to the 18th, after which there will be a second adjustment, which must be noted. On the other hand, if the support of 3369 is broken, the overall risk will further rise, if it is broken, it is recommended to fall to within 6% again, and we must pay attention to the future structural development and time cycle changes are the core focus. And on Friday, the two cities as a whole 3,670 **, only 1,316, and the most optimistic thing on Friday is that the trading volume has been enlarged to 961.7 billion, and the northbound is also outflow of more than 400 million, so Monday focuses on whether the volume continues to break through to 1 trillion and break through the weak ** pattern, this is the core focus, if it can't be the whole is weak
Emotional sideToday's sentiment cooled down further as expected, the price limit fell to 36, the sealing rate was only 65%, the limit fell to 17, and the height of the board dropped to 3 boards, and the total number of boards was 10.
On the plate:Today's whole is a full-scale explosion of artificial intelligence, while the other whole is mostly in the ebb tide or great divergence, and the structure of the press is difficult to judge as a whole, so we can only observe further. Therefore, it is possible that the overall expectation of artificial intelligence will once again become the main line, so here is a further observation. And today's strongest sector: multimodal model + optical communication + state-owned enterprise reform. Assist: Computing power + hydrogen energy.
Reform of state-owned enterprises:The leading is the 3 boards of Cultural Investment Holdings, although there are only 2, but they are mostly the highest standard, which must be paid attention to, so whether there is greater promotion in the later stage, or whether the leading and film and television media, etc., is not to rule out the possibility of going demonic, to launch a new small cycle. Further observations.
Multimodal model: Leading Wangda Software and Suzhou Keda 2 boards, if the future here is the main line, then who may become the leader?My judgment is expected to be that the probability of Suzhou Keda is relatively large, and clean is purely the point. The observation of the later step is the core, and the other point is that if the national reform cannot come out, it may find a key impetus here, and it is necessary to pay attention to it here.
Optical communication: leading Wufang photoelectric 2 boards, although there are some free capital entered, but the sustainability is poor, because there are too many sets, so the power of the latter is insufficient, it is recommended to see more and move less.
There is no shortcut to success, only self-discipline and perseverance!I wish you on the road together, the harder you work, the luckier!
Today's highlights: 1. Yang Jinsong, China Tourism Academy: Ice and snow tourism is on the eve of a historic outbreak.
2. National Bureau of Statistics: CPI fell 05% month-on-month, down 05%。(Other people's inflation, our deflation.) ）
3. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Actively promote the innovation and development of new energy and intelligent networked vehicles, and support the R&D and industrialization of technologies such as new generation power batteries, new chassis, and intelligent driving.
4. South Korea's first late-night self-driving bus was officially put into operation, according to reports, this self-driving bus is equipped with core components of automatic driving such as lidar, visual recognition camera and GPS navigator, and has automatic and manual driving modes.
5. Northbound funds are net **4 today600 million yuan. Kweichow Moutai, Inspur Information, and Changan Automobile respectively won a net **6700 million yuan, 61.8 billion yuan, 46.5 billion yuan. United Imaging Healthcare had the largest net selling volume, with an amount of 10$1.4 billion.
Track the subject matter of the product:
1. Pigs 1394（-4.48%, hog cost 16. ）
1. Lithium carbonate 108 (0%, below 200,000, but the overall is not optimistic. ）
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