distanceYear countdown firsttrading days.
The perception of a company or a market is often determined by the ass.
For example, Warren Buffett is optimistic about the U.S. market, and the public and private equity companies investing in the A** market are optimistic about the Chinese market, and there is no problem, otherwise the position of the butt is crooked, and no matter how smart the head is, it is useless.
This is also a place that is often easily debated on the Internet, an American believes that the investment value of Apple with a P/E ratio of 30 times is higher than that of a P/E ratio of 15 times, and the real idea may not only be a matter of rate of return, but also liquidity risk based on funds.
But most of the people in the back will not say, or because of some special status, it is not appropriate to discuss it publicly.
The former is the appearance, and the latter, most people can't see or don't think of going here.
Thus, disagreements arise.
And this disagreement, the other side is very clear, but it is not clear.
And the vast majority of our domestic investors, there is only one and only one path, which is to choose and trust the companies of our country.
Investing in RMB-denominated companies is in the interest of most of us, but for some expatriates, it's not quite the same.
It's a matter of the ass, and different asses look at the problem from different angles.
Therefore, some people say that if there is a problem with real estate, there will be a risk for the bank, and there will be a risk for the insurance company.
In fact, the real estate problem is a clear card, and the risk is also a clear card, and the three red lines have punctured the bubble, which means that we are actively resolving this risk.
These risks are what we must face and solve, and we must also solve.
Otherwise, if the real estate risk evolves into a systemic risk, when the bank and insurance all have problems, can liquor really be good?
Can AI and games completely solve the problem of eating?
Obviously, this is not the case.
The impact of the real estate industry on the tertiary industry is rapidly emerging.
There is a certain time delay from the deceleration of real estate development to building materials, and then to services and consumption, but it has basically begun to affect all aspects, even liquor.
Therefore, this is a root cause problem that will be resolved sooner or later.
Otherwise, there will be no road to revival.
There are many ways to solve the problem, and the upgrading of the manufacturing industry is a good way.
At present, we are in a leading position in the world in almost all emerging industries such as information and communication, mobile Internet, artificial intelligence, photovoltaics, new energy and new energy vehicles.
However, even so, this volume cannot completely replace the overall economic slowdown caused by the real estate slowdown.
However, as time goes by, the impact of real estate on the economy will become smaller and smaller, and the weight of manufacturing upgrading will become higher and higher.
It's getting better slowly.
And the personal destiny of every Chinese person is closely related to the development of the country.
Returning to the bank, China's commercial banks have a special position in the financial system.
For example, most of the additional money needs to flow into the market through loans from commercial banks (the central bank provides loans to commercial banks, and commercial banks provide loans to the market), and in the era of credit money, as long as a country's economy is growing, the supply of money is increasing perpetually.
Therefore, for domestic commercial banks, the overall balance sheet will expand in tandem with the growth of M2.
Of course, because of the Basel Accord, this also requires the continuous consumption of the bank's capital, which is the main reason for limiting the bank's dividends (valuation increase).
However, like all businesses, banks are essentially operating with competitive efficiency, which includes net interest margins, fees and other non-interest income, and good banks can retain a large part of their profits for dividends (to shareholders) after replenishing their capital adequacy.
Commercial banks that do not rely on external financing and can maintain stable dividends after replenishing capital adequacy funds can be considered to have endogenous growth momentum.
Not only banks, but also any other industry, companies with endogenous growth momentum are good companies.
In fact, it is not difficult to judge whether a company has endogenous growth momentum, and the easiest way is that a company with long-term operating cash flow greater than maintenance capital expenditure and stable growth can be considered a good company as long as it does not make false accounts.
The financial analysis of banks is relatively complex.
However, if we understand the bank's capital adequacy ratio, non-performing (relocation) ratio, net interest margin, impairment provision standard and other indicators, and then look at whether the bank can maintain stable dividends without relying on external financing without deteriorating these core financial indicators, we can judge whether the bank is making real money or financial technology to adjust profits.
For example, China Merchants Bank, except for 2018, has maintained a dividend rate of more than 30% for 10 consecutive years, and does not rely on equity financing, and can maintain the highest capital adequacy ratio and provisions in the industry.
There is obviously nothing wrong with defining China Merchants Bank as a bank with organic growth, right?
Finally, cheer everyone up:
Everything is fine, there are no problems, just hold the stock with peace of mind and wait (the dividend of time) to make money.
The above is a personal reflection and summary of Caitou, and does not constitute any operation suggestions, please combine your actual situation to obtain your own growth and cognition.
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Original debut |Caitou Diary (ID: CT600519).
Author |Choopy head.