Israel has reportedly begun a ground offensive on the Gaza Strip in retaliation against the Palestinian militant group Hamas. The scale of the offensive is unclear, but a key question is whether Israel will be able to move freely or whether it will be bogged down in a quagmire. If it is the latter, then the offensive will not be a quick raid, but a protracted war.
Within Israel, there seems to be a consensus that Hamas must be attacked or it will lose popular support. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in particular, faces a political crisis and allegations of corruption, and if he stops his offensive, he could be held accountable by the opposition. Therefore, there is no room for a ceasefire.
Under these circumstances, the only thing that can restrain Israel may be the United States. But the attitude of the United States is ambiguous. Two days ago, during the talks between China and the United States, Israel launched a ground attack, which clearly violated the warning of the United States. However, instead of strongly condemning Israel, the United States expressed its understanding of Israel's right to self-defense.
In doing so, the United States may want to use the impact of the war to gain an advantage at the negotiating table. Otherwise, it is difficult to understand why Israel has been assembling at the border for so long, but just two days after the talks began, the United States also carried out retaliatory bombing of some Iranian forces in the Middle East. Israel followed suit and launched a ground offensive.
Who is this for?
However, yesterday's rounds of talks did not produce any substantive progress. On the U.S. side, from Biden to security adviser Jake Sullivan, they all changed their tone and began to put pressure on Israel. It seems that one show time is over, and another show time has begun.