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China stirs up the situation!The story behind the ceasefire in Myanmar, the diplomacy of major powers reflects the truth of "Lao Cai"!
The situation in Myanmar is now unpredictable, with a fierce battle going on for nearly 50 days, with the Allies holding most of the territory in the Kokang region and the Burmese army besieged. Laojie, Nantianmen, Mixiangou and other places have become areas under the control of the Allied forces, but the intensity of this battle is worrying. So, what role does China play in this struggle against this backdrop of tension?
First, let's focus on a special location in the Kokang area: Lao Cai. Lao Cai became a test for the Allies and China for a number of complicated reasons. The Allied forces were reluctant to take Lao Cai easily, on the one hand, because Lao Cai's geographical location was easy to defend and difficult to attack, and on the other hand, considering the need to rule Lao Cai in the future, if it were destroyed, it would require a lot of reconstruction costs. To complicate matters further, there are still some blackmailers in Lao Cai who do not want to be escorted back to China, and China does not allow anyone to die in Lao Cai. As a result, the tide of the war has reached a stalemate.
The situation becomes even more confusing, given that the Tatmadaw Army** and Min Aung Hlaing's control of Kokang's executive power has become a certainty. In this case, if the Allied forces desperately capture Lao Cai, losses will be inevitable. For Myanmar, the loss of Kokang's executive power is an irreversible consequence, and Peng Dashun is bound to become the master of Kokang. Although the Tatmadaw would rather stop the war, it would not really give up its Kokang garrison, because it would be a major political blow.
At such an urgent moment, China has once again demonstrated its image as a responsible major country and actively promoted peace talks. China has taken the lead in bringing together Burmese**, the Allied Forces, the De'ang Army, and the Arakan Army in Yunnan. There is no doubt that negotiations are difficult, as it is difficult for the parties to reach agreement on their core interests. In this process, China's position of persuasion for peace has become particularly firm. Although the parties were unable to make a real compromise, a temporary ceasefire agreement was reached.
Behind this temporary ceasefire is not only the result of a marked decline in the fighting in northern Myanmar, but also China's efforts to maintain peace on the border. In response, Chinese spokesperson Mao Ning stressed that China has been working hard to push all relevant parties in Myanmar to stop the war and promote talks to ease the situation. This is not only in the interests of all parties, but also conducive to maintaining tranquility on the China-Myanmar border. A temporary ceasefire is also a compromise on the needs of both sides, and through this respite, all parties can observe the situation and decide on their next steps.
It is worth noting, however, that a temporary ceasefire does not mean a real compromise. The Tatmadaw and the allied forces may have reached some consensus and agreement, but this requires further practical implementation. China hopes that all parties will implement the agreements and consensus reached as soon as possible, exercise maximum restraint, take the initiative to ease the situation on the ground, manage emergencies in a timely manner, and jointly promote a soft landing in northern Myanmar. This position underscores China's responsibility on the Myanmar issue.
Looking at this series of events, we can see China's firm position on coordinating international affairs. China's efforts to persuade peace are not only politically profound, but also a manifestation of China's international responsibility. At the same time, China has also put forward a demand to crack down on wire fraud behind the ceasefire, showing China's resolute attitude in maintaining the highest quality.
So, what does a ceasefire agreement mean for Myanmar?From Myanmar's point of view, this is a respite, especially for the Tatmadaw army**, which is mired in war. The situation in Myanmar as a whole has become complicated, and traditional ethnic contradictions are no longer the only problem. There is not only *** within Myanmar, but also *** within the Burmese people. And National Unity** is trying to overthrow Min Aung Hlaing's regime. In this case, the temporary ceasefire in northern Myanmar has given the Myanmar military a chance to breathe, and at the same time, it has also made China more conducive to fighting wire fraud.
The ceasefire also reflects China's strategic considerations. In the Kokang region, China has issued arrest warrants for three major families, hoping that the Tatmadaw will actively cooperate and hand over the criminals involved in wire fraud. For China, the urgency of cracking down on wire fraud cannot be ignored. However, if the war drags on, the Tatmadaw may use this as an excuse not to fulfill its commitments. Therefore, by proposing a ceasefire, China has indirectly given the Burmese military a chance to hand over personnel to better cooperate in the fight against wire fraud, thereby creating more favorable conditions for peace.
However, it's not that simple. For Myanmar**, a ceasefire may only be a stopgap measure. Although the ceasefire has given China and the Burmese army a chance to breathe, it does not represent a real compromise. It is likely that Min Aung Hlaing is simply trying to buy more time through a ceasefire in order to find a more favourable solution in the changing situation. Given Min Aung Hlaing's regime's lack of international legitimacy, he needs to consider his own way out. China's expectation is that Myanmar will continue to push for democratic reforms, and for Min Aung Hlaing, the best option may be to return to the position of commander of the three armed forces and work with Aung San Suu Kyi to achieve domestic reconciliation and create conditions for long-term peace and stability in Myanmar.
However, there are many questions about whether Min Aung Hlaing will accept this proposal and whether there will be a continued ceasefire in Myanmar. In Chamhao's view, Min Aung Hlaing is likely not to make the right choice, given his past political moves and the legitimacy of the regime in Myanmar. The ceasefire is only temporary, and the war may continue, and it may even become prolonged.
Overall, China's efforts and stance on the Myanmar issue are commendable. By rallying all parties to negotiate and propose a ceasefire, while emphasizing the importance of cracking down on wire fraud, China has played a positive role in maintaining regional peace and security. However, the solution to the Myanmar issue is still fraught with complexity, and it remains to be seen where the future will go. It is hoped that all parties can work together to create more favorable conditions for a soft landing in Myanmar. This complex game continues, and China's role will continue to play.