The liquor sector opened sharply lower by more than 1% in early trading, and then opened lower and went lower, with a maximum decline of nearly 4%, and as of early trading, the decline reached 31%, still at the level of the two cities, **, $Kweichow Moutai $ -205%, Wuliangye $ -372%, Shanxi Fenjiu $ -41%, Luzhou Laojiao $ -532%, so why did the liquor sector suddenly plummet?What's next?
For the liquor sector, I think there are two main factors:
First, on December 9, the National Bureau of Statistics released the national CPI (Household Consumption Index) and PPI (Industrial Producer Producer Index) data for November 2023. The data showed that in November, the CPI fell by 05%, a year-on-year decline of 03 percentage points. Among them, agricultural products and food processing have declined significantly. The decline in CPI data indicates that residents' consumption capacity is insufficient, or the willingness to consume is declining, and liquor, as one of the food and beverage consumer goods, is bound to be affected by the general environment, so the release of CPI data is bearish for liquor as a whole
Second, although the U.S. dollar index has fallen recently, and the RMB has shown signs of stabilizing and rising, but the northbound funds are still flowing out of liquor, especially in Wuliangye, where the outflow of foreign capital is nearly 10 billion in half a day today.
At present, from a technical point of view, the liquor sector is large today, closing out of a large negative line, and there has not yet been an obvious stabilization signal, but today the downward gap opens low to form a gap, according to the theory that the gap must be filled, the future is likely to be backfilled, in addition, close to the New Year's Day and Spring Festival consumption season, which is also a good expectation for the liquor sector, in the afternoon we pay attention to whether the decline in the liquor sector can continue to narrow, if the decline is further narrowed to 2%, k If the decline is still maintained at about 3%, it cannot be regarded as the bottom, and it will continue to grind the bottom.
Below are some real-time estimates (updated to 11:30) for reference only.
Commonly used industry indices: $CSI Liquor$, Hang Seng Technology Index$, Semiconductor$, New Energy Vehicles$$, Game Animation$$Biomedicine$