This Wednesday (December 13), liquor fell sharply, and funds accelerated their flight from consumptionA friend sent me a screenshot of the position on Wednesday morning, and the loss of Invesco Great Wall Jiying's two-year fixed opening (006345) with 100,000 yuan of capital has reached -4905%。
On March 13, the CSI Liquor Index **374%, continued on March 14 **207%, the market value of my friend's ** must have fallen below 50,000 yuan. In the past two years, I have held and consumed, including liquor, which is not comfortable. So where is the position of liquor after this wave of valuation killing?
Daily**Posted on the evening of December 14:"Drawdown of more than 30%!The reason for the sharp fall in the liquor sector!》，It can be used as a supplement to reading this article.
I'm going to briefly show the data in two parts.
The first part is to show what are the consumption themes held by ** company, institutional investors, **company internal employees**, and what is the performance in the past three years.
The second part is to show the average annualized rate of return and valuation of some consumer indices involved in the performance benchmarks of active and passive index ** in the market, and see if it is now at the bottom and whether there is any investment cost performance.
Institutional and internal employees like to spend**
I pulled the data, and there are currently 318 companies with the word "wine" or "consumption" in the performance benchmark of the whole market.
318**, of which, as of September 30, 2023,There are 56 held by ** companies, according to the amount of ** company holdings from high to low is as follows, Wang Yuanyuan's Wells Fargo Quality Life Mixed A (006179) is held by Wells Fargo ** 8711640,000 yuan ranked first. Some of the scales in the table are too small to be recommended.
Data**: Dongcai Choice data, as of December 12, 2023.
318**, of which, as of June 30, 2023,There are 36 stocks with more than 100 million yuan held by institutions, see the table below. Consumer ETFs (159928) and wine ETFs (512690) are more held by institutions.
Data**: Dongcai Choice data, as of December 12, 2023.
318**, of which, as of June 30, 2023,There are 40 stocks with more than 1 million yuan held by internal employees, see the table below. Xiao Nan's E Fund consumer industry** was the most held by internal employees, reaching 2324660,000 yuan.
Data**: Dongcai Choice data, as of December 12, 2023.
If the manager is required to be in office for three years, 93 of the 318 will remain.
The 93 ** are ranked according to the range returns of the past three years from high to low as follows。The best performance in the past three years is the U.S. consumer LOF (162415). Also at the top of the list are Wang Bin's Huaan Anxin Consumption Mix A, Yang Fulin's SPDB AXA Consumption Upgrade Mix A, Qi Weizhong's Dacheng Consumption Theme Mix A, Liu Xin's Manulife Consumption Dividend Index A, Yang Siliang's Baoying Consumption Theme Mix, Tan Li's Harvest New Consumption**, etc.
Data**: Dongcai Choice data, as of December 12, 2023.
Zhang Dongyi's performance in the past three years has not been satisfactory, and there are ...... of Xiao Nan and other bigwigs at the bottom of the listIt's really uncomfortable to reap this result in three years.
How the consumer index returns and valuations
There are still a lot of consumption index data involved in the performance benchmarks of the above 318**, of which the mainland consumption index is the largest.
I've selected 31 indices to show the data.
The basis points, base periods, release dates, number of constituent stocks, changes this year, changes since the base period, average annualized returns, and total market capitalization of the 31 indices are shown below. Judging by the average annualized rate of return data,CSI liquorTake 1883% ranked first800 consumption, consumption dividend, CSI wineThe average annualized return of several indices ranks high. The average annualized rate of return data greater than 10% is marked in red by me.
Data**: Dongcai Choice data, as of December 13, 2023.
Still in the order of the above table, the P/E ratio, P/E ratio since the base period, the valuation percentile, the price-to-book ratio, the price-to-book ratio since the base period, the dividend yield, **PEG, etc., are displayed as follows。CSI Baijiu's price-to-earnings ratio is valued at 2492 times, already to 2298% percentile;The price-to-book ratio is 680 times, valuation percentile 3720%, although not at an all-time low, is close to the undervalued area (if less than 25% is considered underestimated).
Data**: Dongcai Choice data, as of December 13, 2023.
Judging from the data, the liquor index, for example, has a valuation cost performance in the medium and long term, but there is still % room for the historical (since the base period) valuation bottom.
The last column of data in the above table is given by Dongcai ChoicePEG dataIn 2024, the PEG of the liquor index will still be greater than 1, and the PEG is the valuation after considering the growth of earnings growth, if it is less than 1, it means that it is undervalued, so if you look at it from the perspective of PEG,Hang Seng Consumer Indexof 2024 PEG** values are 13198, apparently a bit overestimated.
Consumer electronics can actually also be seen, because it is a cyclical industry, so the current PE value at the bottom of the cycle is a bit high, for strong cyclical industries, it is generally invested when PE is high. Again, PB and PEG are underestimated. Therefore, it is logically tenable to consider consumer electronics in the car at present (personal opinion, it does not constitute investment advice).
Then from the perspective of PEG, 800 consumption, consumption (style. CITIC), mainland consumption, and consumption 100 seem to be better choices at the moment.
Let's briefly expand these four indices.
Consume. The largest tracking of the index is CUAM CSI Major Consumer ETF (159928) with a size of 1045.8 billion yuan. The weekly chart, sector weights, and top 10 weightings of CUAM CSI Major Consumer ETF are shown below.
Data**: Dongcai Choice data, as of December 14, 2023.
Data**: Dongcai Choice data, as of September 30, 2023.
2. Consumption (style. CITIC). At present, there is no passive index ** tracking, and there are two ** performance benchmarks in the market, among which Bodao ** Yang Meng's Bodao Consumer Zhihang A (010998) is relatively more pure, but because it is active**, it is not a complete replication of the index, and it still needs to look at the ability of the **manager.
The monthly chart showing the index is as follows, and it also shows the top 10 holdings and industry weights of Bodao Consumer Intelligent Aviation A.
Data**: Dongcai Choice data, as of December 14, 2023.
3. Consumption in the Mainland. There is no passive index type ** to track the index, but there are 138** in the whole market based on mainland consumption, there are too many of them, I will not name any one. The chart below shows the monthly chart trend, sector weighting, and top 10 heavy positions of the index.
Data**: Dongcai Choice data, as of December 14, 2023.
4. Spend 100. However, there are passive exponential tracking, and there are only two, and both of them are enhanced index **, but the scale of ** is not large, namely Tianhong CNI Consumption 100 Index Enhancement A, Yimi CNI Consumption 100 Index Enhancement Initiation A. The chart below shows the monthly chart trend, sector weighting, and top 10 heavy positions of the index.
Data**: Dongcai Choice data, as of December 14, 2023.
My article is basically ** combing notes, the amount of information is still relatively large, thank you for your patience to read, all content is personal research, does not constitute investment advice, please pay more attention to objective data.
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