DistanceTaiwanWith less than three weeks to go before the polling day for the regional leadership election, the election situation on the island suddenly changed, giving people more speculation and concern about the election results. According to the latest wave of tracking announced by Taiwanese media "Beautiful Island Electronic News".PollsIt shows that the current support of "Lai Xiaopei" is 375%, still firmly in the first place, and the second place "Hou Kangpei" support is 326%, compared to the previous wavePollsDropped by 08 percentage points;And the latest wave of "Ke Yingpei".PollsThe number is 163%, which is about 14 percentage points. Previous roundsPollsShow, "Hou Kang" and "Lai Xiao".Pollshas entered the range of error statistics, and the support of the two is not much different, but now the support of "Lai Xiaopei" has begun to distance itself from its opponents. This change adds more suspense and uncertainty to the election.
As for this change in the election, everyone has speculated about the reason. Some analysts believe thatLai QingdeWanli's hometown sufferedOpposition partiesThe attack on the illegal construction has caused the public to question its image. Candidate of the People's PartyKe WenzheIt is even more criticalLai QingdeIf he does not demolish the illegal buildings, it indicates that he may be more authoritarian than the current leader Tsai Ing-wen in the future. In addition,Ke WenzheHe also said that there would be no dialogue with the mainland at allKuomintangThe dialogue with the mainland is very ambiguous, while the People's Party does not."The burden of the "party program" does not have the burden of the "92 consensus," so he is more able to handle it properly。Still, neverthelessLai QingdeApproval ratings continue to decline, and nowPollsIt shows that he has no chance of turning the tables around.
For the rise of "Lai Xiao Pei" as well".Lai QingdeThere have been some concerns and concerns in the world. Lai QingdeAs a candidate for ***, it has long been considered "pragmatic."workers", which is seen as "by the supporters of the Green Camp".Jin Sun". Although other candidates Hou Youyi andKe WenzheThey have never explicitly expressed their support for cross-strait reunification, and there is also a certain degree of "rejection" mentality, but this does not mean that they are in harmony with each otherLai QingdeThere are the same political philosophies. Therefore,Lai QingdeThe latest statement is tantamount to admitting that you are one"."molecules, and refuse to give up".Party platform".
There are well-known American scholars who have published articles calling forLai QingdeFrozen".party platform" to avoid triggering a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. The article pointed out that the United States opposes any change in the status quo in the Taiwan Strait by either side of the strait, including opposition to the mainland's movesMilitaryway to solveThe Taiwan questionand also against".”。Therefore, the author appealsLai QingdeConsider freezing".party platform", such a statement of commitment to maintain the status quo carries more weight and credibility. ChinaKuomintangCandidate Hou Youyi pointed out bluntly that the United States is rightLai QingdeNot reassured, it is even recommended to freeze".Party program "because"."It means war. He thinksLai Qingdeshould be abandoned".Party platform", otherwiseTaiwanwill fall into the abyss from which there will be no return.
In fact, as early as 2014, more than 40 *** representatives, including Chen Zhaonan, Guo Zhengliang, and Wu Zijia, jointly proposed to freeze it".Party platform". They think, ".The "party platform" has led to the obstruction of cross-strait exchanges, making the party isolate itself from the cross-strait agenda, and also giving up cross-strait issuesKuomintangand continental. In March this year, former chairman of the US "Taiwan Association," Bruce Bryzer, also suggested a freeze."party platform", he said that the United States has not supported it".Because they do not want to be passively involved in a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Last month, when the high-level summit between China and the United States was held in San Francisco, the Chinese side made this clearThe Taiwan questionIt is the core of China's core interests, and the US should not support it."The statement is embodied in concrete actions, the cessation of armingTaiwanand support China's peaceful reunification. Joe Biden** also reiterated the commitment of "four noes and one no" to his face, and stressed that the US side does not support it".”。After these statements came out,Lai QingdeThe support rate continued to decline, and Hou Youyi's support rate not only exceededKe Wenzhe, but also withLai QingdeIt is also within the statistical error range.
InTaiwanAt the critical moment when the election entered the sprint stage, the United States seemed to pay more attention to the development of the election situation, and tried to influence the election results by standing on the platform of the "double independence combination". In fact, there is a view that there is a great deal of uncertainty about the election situation on the island, but what is certain is that ".""It means war. If the "dual independence combination" comes to power, it may trigger a conflict in the Taiwan Strait at any time, which is also the reason why the United States is worried. At that time, no matter how much the mainland has to pay, the two sides of the strait must be reunified.
For supportTaiwanThe United States not only approved a $300 million worth of arms sales to Taiwan, but also signed the "National Defense Authorization Act of 2024", authorizing the U.S. Department of Defense to strengthen the United States and TaiwanMilitaryExchange and cooperation. All these measures show that the US side is rightTaiwanThe election intervened and tried to passMilitaryCooperate to show that you are rightTaiwansupport.
To sum up, the changes in the election situation on the island have aroused widespread concern and speculation. Lai Qingdeof"."The position was so worried that some even suggested that he freeze it".Party platform". The U.S. side also strengthened its stance during the electionMilitarycooperation, trying to influence the outcome of the election by standing for ***. However, in the election directionKuomintangWhen the favorable direction develops, the United States seems to be unable to sit still and has taken a series of strong measures. Regardless of the outcome of the election, forand the development of the Taiwan Strait issue, both of which have an important impact and challenges.