[Introduction].Entering the middle of December, recently, the domestic cold wave weather one after another, before that, North China, Huanghuai and other places rain and snow just stopped, a new round of cold air on the line again, the cold wave came again, the temperature in the north and south of the region "low and low", many places feel that the temperature is comparable to "three nine days", and this large-scale rain and snow weather will last from the 13th to the 15th, North China, Huanghuai and Central China, rain and snow mixed, the temperature in southwest and South China will also drop sharply, and the temperature will gradually drop to 10 Left and right, in the southwest region, pork curing or will be fully launched!
Affected by the cold wave weather comeback, the domestic pig market, the last two days, the northern region of the pig price ** under pressure, part of the ** pig farm price increase, however, by a new round of rain and snow is coming, farmers resist the loss of the mentality of selling pigs, the pace of pigs slowed down, the slaughterhouse successfully harvested pigs The difficulty of the pig price has decreased, the pig price has taken advantage of the "take-off", the market or will usher in a phased "price rise", then, at the end of the month, the pig price can "break 7 into 8", the specific analysis is as follows:
According to the analysis of institutional data, on December 13, the average price of lean pigs in the country was 007 yuan kg, slaughtering enterprise ** rose to 1415 yuan kg, the market continued to rise, however, the price of pigs in the north is average, and many places in the south continue to be strong, and the price of pigs has decreased to 25 year-on-year25%！
From the national market, in the 28 regions of the national key monitoring, among them, the pig ** hovers at 1325 15 yuan kg, the Xinjiang market bottomed out 1325 yuan kg, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Fujian** rose to 15 yuan kg!In the three northeastern provinces, the mainstream hogs ** sideways 1365~13.7 yuan kg, and in the ** region, the Sichuan-Chongqing market ** rose to 147~14.9 yuan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions**1465 15 yuan, the price of pigs in the two regions rose to 146~14.95 yuan kg!
On the one hand, two days ago, due to the lack of consumption support in the north, the phenomenon of consumer substitution is more common, the white leftovers in the wholesale market in many places have increased, and the slaughterhouse has raised the price of pigs The mentality is weak, and the pig farm is more positive, and the slaughterhouse is not difficult to collect pigs, the pig price in the northeast market has been slightly lowered, and the North China and Northwest markets, the slaughterhouse is mainly deadlockedOn the other hand, in East China and Central China, the breeding end of the slaughter mentality is general, the consumption follow-up is limited, the southern market pickles are slow to cash, and the market bullish sentiment has loosened!This also limits the performance of pig prices!
However, with the comeback of this round of cold wave weather, North China, Huanghuai and other places, rain and snow or will be on a large scale, the pace of grassroots pig purchase and sales has slowed down, superimposed, the cold wave weather deep into the southwest and South China, some provinces in the south or will usher in the first snow since this winter, the market for the southwest pickling good support to become stronger, the breeding end of the slaughter rhythm weakened, the group pig enterprises have obvious card price slaughter performance!
Guided by emotions, the southwest pickled meat is about to be cashed in, the domestic pig price or will show a trend of the trend, the stage of pig prices or will usher in the "price rise", however, at the end of the month pig prices "break 7 into 8" is more difficult!
On the one hand, in the near future, domestic pork consumption has followed up in general, the southern pickled meat is not smooth, and the northern pork consumption substitution is strong, however, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has increased significantly, previously, the operating rate of domestic sample slaughtering enterprises has reached 36%, and the slaughtering enterprises have the phenomenon of stocking up in advance, and the market pork ** level may be relaxed
On the other hand, the pig production capacity is still abundant!At the end of the year, the first group and the second fattening, the appropriate weight of pigs into the first column stage, in particular, the pig ** is low, the pig fattening loss is larger, and the standard fertilizer price spread is narrow, the breeding end of the slaughter enthusiasm is strong, small and medium-sized pigs are more sufficient!Superimposed, the average weight of pigs slaughtered continues to rise, the output of pig farms has increased significantly, and the domestic frozen pork inventory level remains high, which will hedge against the good of southern pickling and limit the rhythm of pig prices!
Therefore, based on the market long and short game, I personally believe that although the stage of pig prices or will usher in the trend of the trend, however, pig prices are still facing pressure at the end of the market, the space may be limited, at the end of the month, pig prices or difficult to rise smoothly into the "8 yuan era", some institutions, pigs or will hover at 75 8 yuan up and down!Hogs**
The cold wave is coming back, and the pig price is taking advantage of the situation to "take off", and at the end of the month, it will "break 7 into 8"?*It's coming!What do you think about this?The above is the author's personal opinion,**From the Internet!