[Introduction].December is about to be more than half, in the domestic pig and grain market, in the last two days, North China and the Huanghuai region rain and snow temporarily rested, the grassroots grain source is concentrated, the tide grain ** increased, the Northeast farmers cashed out more enthusiasm, corn spot ** wide range of lower, and in the wheat market, wheat prices are weak and stable, and the market purchase and sales are low!However, in the hog market, supported by sentiment to become stronger, the market's bullish confidence has increased sharply, pig prices have "taken off", and the market has a trendSo, what's happening in the market?
Today is December 13th, domestic pig prices, grain prices "** two days", pig prices "take off", corn "big drops", wheat sideways, the specific analysis is as follows:
First, the mismatch between corn production and marketing is highlighted, and the pressure is lowered!
Recently, due to the frequent rain and snow in the production area, the difficulty of corn grassroots storage has increased sharply, the Northeast has been warmed by the "previous winter", the mildew phenomenon has increased, and the farmers' realizable sentiment is strong, and in North China and the Huanghuai market, before the rain and snow weather, the grassroots purchase and sales have stagnated, with the short rain and snow interval, the grassroots tide grain market has increased sharply, and the domestic corn spot has shown a mismatch between production and marketing, and the grassroots has increased sharply, but the demand follow-up is only cautious, and the corn has gone down!
In the Northeast market, affected by the cold wave weather, the difficulty of tidal grain storage has weakened, however, due to the high temperature in the early winter, the quality of corn has deteriorated for some farmers, and the mentality of farmers selling grain is strong
In the Heijiliao region and Heilongjiang region, the tide grain is generally stable, at 0865~0.957 yuan jin, Jilin tide grain ** in 0938~0.986 yuan catty, some tide grain ** down 03~1.3 cents. In terms of dry food, Heijiliao and Inner Mongolia have a price drop of 0 in deep processing5 1 cent, Heilongjiang area ** in 114~1.18 yuan jin, Jilin area enterprises ** in 1185~1.22 yuan catty, Liaoning market deep processing ** in 124~1.245 yuan, Inner Mongolia market corn ** in 123~1.305 yuan jin;
In the North China market, temporarily suspended by rain and snow, corn circulation increased, the amount of backlog of grain at the grassroots level increased sharply, and the mentality of farmers selling grain became stronger
Among them, in Shandong, the source of deep processing to the grain is about 977 cars, an increase of about 490 cars, in Shandong, the amount of corn is loose, the moisture of tide grain is high, and the deep processing is listed on a large scale, and the mainstream is 03~2.8 pounds, the average price of corn in Shandong fell to 1315 yuan catty, the mainstream ** in 1276~1.367 yuan catty!
Personally, I believe that due to the increase in autumn grain corn production by more than 11 million tons, the year-on-year increase was 42%, the demand side of the warehouse mentality is more cautious, due to the large fluctuations in the temperature in the previous winter, the quality of corn deteriorated, the grassroots realization mentality is strong, corn production and marketing mismatch, in the short term, the market will continue to be under pressure, spot corn or will continue to narrow and weak trend!
Second, the wheat market is weakly and steadily adjusted!
At present, the wheat market is showing a weak and stable situation, and the wheat output in 23 years is 2731800 million catties, down 08%, a decrease of 22700 million catties, equivalent to 11350,000 tons, however, due to the impact of the "bad rain" of summer grain, sprout wheat and germinating wheat have increased significantly, concentrated into feed enterprises, therefore, the proportion of high-quality wheat has declined, and the level is relatively tight!
However, due to the sharp increase in wheat imports during the year, 1 October, wheat imports reached 10.83 million tons, which alleviated the pressure on wheat to a certain extent, however, at present, the grassroots surplus grain bottomed out, the main body of grain holding is concentrated in the grain depot and the first business, the grain depot rotation has not yet been launched, the first business cautious sentiment is strong, the mentality of selling grain at a low price is not high, and the first end is slightly tight!
On the demand side, due to the low corn **, feed cost performance enhanced, milling enterprises bran delivery difficulty increased sharply, lack of stamina, milling enterprises by-product profits under pressure, and in terms of flour consumption, in the near future, flour downstream shipments are relatively slow, the market centralized stocking cycle has not yet arrived, some enterprises inventory pressure has increased sharply, the phenomenon of price reduction has increased, among them, in Weifang, Shandong and Qingdao, Xiangye flour and Jiaxing and flour ** down 100 140 yuan ton, ** to 2960 yuan tons, the flour market is under pressure, the mentality of enterprises replenishing raw grain is weak, and the wheat market is showing a situation of low purchase and sales!
From the analysis of market summary data, Shandong Qingdao Jin Xiyan, wheat ** down 1 catty, Hebei Daiming Wudeli and Shangqiu Wudeli and Keming starch rose by 07 1 cent!In Shandong, wheat is listed sideways 146~1.53 yuan jin, Hebei market ** in 147~1.485 yuan jin, Henan market ** in 1455~1.52 yuan this year or so!
Third, the pig price "took off", * support strengthened!
In the last two days, by the last round of cold wave weather gradually ended, the pace of pig purchase and sales has accelerated, many pig farms in the north are under the pressure of pig farm disease, the phenomenon of selling pigs has increased, the difficulty of slaughterhouse procurement has been slightly lowered, and the purchase and sale has shown a certain stalemate, and in the southern market, pig prices continue to make up for the situation, the average price of live pigs has weakened, from the market feedback, on December 13, the price of pigs outside the three yuan **007 yuan kg, slaughtering enterprise ** rose to 1415 yuan kg, in the north and south of the domestic market, pig prices maintain the situation of "stable in the north and rising in the south", and in some areas of the southwest, pig prices are more obvious!
However, with the arrival of a new round of cold wave weather, the cold wave will affect the scope or will go further south, southwest and South China, the temperature will also "dive", the south concentrated pickling or will gradually cash, which boosted market confidence, the breeding end of the price of the sentiment to sell stronger, the northern region, the slaughterhouse pig source to the factory level declined, the scale of pig enterprises slaughtered smoothly, some of the head pig enterprises have a certain rise in sentiment!In East China and Central China, in some markets, slaughtering enterprises are facing a certain "lack of pigs" pressure, the circulation of pigs has decreased, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises is high, and the confidence in raising prices and ensuring quantity has been enhanced!
Therefore, affected by the weather, the pig market breeding end of the bullish confidence gradually increased, pig price support has also increased significantly, after this round of cold wave, the southern region is expected to fully open the process of pork curing, fresh pork consumption level or will be greatly increased, the temperature in the northern region is significantly reduced, residents will improve the enthusiasm of winter, pork consumption ushered in the "peak season", pig prices will also enter the cyclical stage!
However, due to the previous slaughtering enterprises in the early storage of positive stocks, the operating rate has moved forward sharply, the market pork capacity is relatively loose, and the pork production capacity is at a high level, which may inhibit the peak season pig price space, therefore, remind farmers to pay attention to the trend of large-scale pig enterprises in a timely manner, and it is good to slaughter at a high price in a timely manner, and do not blindly "chase high"!
Pig prices and grain prices are the second day!On December 13, pig prices "took off", how about corn and wheat?What do you think about this?The above is the author's personal opinion, **from the Internet!