During the National Day, I posted an analysis of A-shares, and the theme view was that the market would start to find the bottom of sentiment in the fourth quarter. This stage is extremely challenging for psychological endurance and is very difficult for most friends.
Today is December 27, 2023, and it is the end of the year. There are only two trading days left in the whole year, and according to the folk stalks, "there is really not much time left for A-shares". There is no suspense, two days later, in the annual rise and fall rankings of the world's major indexes, the last few positions should have been determined by A-shares.
At this time, many friends have been consumed by the market and lost confidence. I hope that the mainland's financial ** will pay attention to the wording when calculating the annual data, take into account the emotions of ** a little, and stop using the word "average" to disgust people.
And the purpose of my choice to post another article today is to encourage my friends and regain their confidence. It just so happens that now the index has also reached a crossroads, which is the emotional bottom that I talked about during the National Day. And this time the choice of direction, once the bottom is successful, can be compared to the two times in 2006-07 and 2014-15.
The logic of this is as follows, and I will list them for my friends' reference.
The public offering market has collapsed due to the most emotional collapse and the passive short-killing phenomenon caused by the redemption tide is very serious. For nearly three months after the National Day, pessimism has been driving the index from its lows to its lower points.
In the second half of the year, the regulator also took a lot of actions on the policy side, mainly by blocking short selling and encouraging longing. There are several typical events: reducing stamp duty, new regulations, suspending IPOs, strictly monitoring quantitative transactions, increasing the margin for securities lending and borrowing while reducing the financing margin, increasing the proportion of social security ** entering the market, insurance ** and enterprise annuity are also included in the consideration of capital increase and entering the market, and some overseas sovereign investment ** entry restrictions have been opened.
**In the technical form of each index, in the past week or so, several major indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen have successively appeared at the bottom of the daily level, and this index resonance is the only one in the year. The Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index, which began in early August, lasted nearly 100 trading days, and can basically determine the end of the five-wave decline at the daily level.
Moreover, the passivation pattern of each index has now been pushed from the daily to the weekly line, and it is expected that there should be a daily long white pull up in the near future to finalize the bottom. If you look at it from the perspective of the month, I personally hope that this long white candle can come again after the New Year's Day, so that the exponential monthly sequence will be more perfect.
The bull and bear cycle pattern of A-shares in the past 20 years, the first two mad bulls**, the first one started in January 2006, ended in October 2007, and smashed the low point in October 2008;The second time started in July 2014 and ended in June 2015, with a low in December 2016 and a new low in January 2019 two years later.
Two mad bulls, the highs of the Shanghai Composite Index at 6124 and 5178 with an interval of 9 years;After smashing the low of 1664 from the first round of Mad Bull93 to the second round of mad cows, almost 6 years. It is now seven years from the December 2016 low and five years from the January 2019 low. The year 2024 should be given special attention.
Market valuations are at historically low levels, and some data have refreshed historical lows.
Another fact that seems to be outside the market cause and effect, but can not be ignored: after the leg injury of real estate, the land finance that has relied on the rapid development of the past 20 years is being ended, and the equity finance with the first capital pool and industrial chain layout "seems" to become a very good and last resort choice.
This may be the reason why the regulators have not been able to let go of policy stimulus. This also explains why when the market sentiment is extremely low and confidence is extremely low, the IPO is only a temporary suspension rather than a temporary suspension;Why is it not thorough when it comes to cracking down on short-selling forces, especially when it does not plug the big loophole of "major shareholders' restricted shares and securities lending" for shorting. It's making a choice, weighing the pros and cons.
Considering the facts beyond this cause and effect, a bull market is now needed from top to bottom to breathe vitality into the economy. And as long as it's a cow, as for whether it's crazy or not, no one cares, and it doesn't matter.
Therefore, what we should do now is also very simple: when the valuation is extremely low, the market sentiment is in place, the bull and bear cycle intersections, the structure and technical indicators of the indices are showing a bottom shape, and the big fundamentals need to be bullish, be decisive, and leave the rest to time.
On the National Day, I think the first round of the position building cycle will span the entire fourth quarter, **3 percent, and this strategy does not need to be adjusted at present. After the bottom is finalized in the near future, it can be added to about 6 percent, don't play too full at once, and leave some maneuver ** for unpredictable accidents.
Everyone has their own analytical logic, trading ideas and techniques. The above only represents my personal point of view, and then I will personally strictly implement the trading plan on my own logical framework and analytical point of view, and if there are no unexpected changes in the market trend in the future, after a period of time, I will most likely not update the ** article (but will be in the next need to prompt the risk or have a good time to increase the position), and then meet with friends.
Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market!The plates and ** in the article are technical analysis and are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice!