Unruly Myanmar.
This is an unruly and unruly country adjacent to our country, which can be classified as a tropical country and was once seriously isolated, and in the process of returning to the mainstream political system of the world, the area has reached 6760,000 square kilometers, but still do not forget to take the opportunity to occupy the Kokang area of only 2,700 square kilometers, which is only 2,700 square kilometers, which is indeed an impressive country. Sixty-eight per cent of the population is Burmese, with the main legal minorities being the Shan (9 per cent), Karen (7 per cent), Mon (2 per cent), Kachin, Karenni (1 per cent), Chin (2 per cent) and Rakhine. There are also Chinese (3%), Indians, and Bangladeshis who are not part of the legal minority.
According to the IMF, the World Bank and the United Nations Statistics Division, Myanmar, with a population of 21.49 million, had a per capita GDP of $60 in nominal terms and $771 in real terms in 1960. In the 17 years from 1961 to 1977, real GDP per capita fluctuated and stagnated, which meant that 17 years were wasted, such as $864 in real GDP per capita in 1977 (a level between famine and food and clothing). Due to the depreciation of the US dollar, Myanmar's per capita nominal GDP reached US$130 in 1977 with a population of 32.13 million. In these 17 years, the population has increased by 495%, with an average annual growth rate of 24%, which is in a state of rapid growth, is the fastest growing period of Myanmar's population.
After analyzing the economic growth rate of so many countries in the past, we should be fully aware that long-term and sustained economic stagnation must be accompanied by special behaviors, otherwise such a situation would not have occurred. Here's the thing;In the 60s of the 20th century, Myanmar began to gradually nationalize private enterprises and gradually develop from a market economy to a planned economy, which led to economic stagnation for 17 years from 1961 to 1977.
On August 24, 1967, a paragraph on the 6th page of a Chinese newspaper reads: In 1963, the Ne Win clique (the leftist military clique that came to power in 1962 through a coup d'état) first "nationalized" the banks, rice**, oil and forestry industries, and then issued a decree on the "nationalization of enterprises", annexing the small and medium-sized industries and commerce of the national bourgeoisie and the petty bourgeoisie, including those of overseas Chinese. In 1964, wholesalers, brokers, and department stores in Yangon and the rest of the country were nationalized.
According to the Burmese newspaper "Working People" on April 23, 1964, Ne Win had taken over more than 10,000 stores across the country. In September 1964, Ne Win also announced that 34 agricultural products would be controlled by ** and that they would be forcibly purchased at low prices. In January 1966, Myanmar** announced the implementation of unified purchase and marketing of 426 kinds of industrial, agricultural and fishery products.
These policies in 1963 and 1964 led to negative per capita real GDP growth of 8% in 1964, and the effect was immediate
In the 14 years from 1978 to 1991, real GDP per capita remained at a state of basic stagnation, but real GDP per capita was on average a little higher than in the previous 17-year cycle (about 20% higher on average, and real GDP per capita was at the level of about $1,000, for example, in 1991 real GDP per capita was $877). In fact, this is also the 14 years wasted by Myanmar, plus the previous 17 years, Myanmar wasted 31 years, which naturally led to the poverty and backwardness of modern Myanmar.
Why was the economic situation in the 14-year period from 1978 to 1991 slightly better than the economic situation in the 17-year period from 1961 to 1977?The reason for this is that the Ne Win Group, which implements a planned economic system, has encountered great difficulties and the economy has stagnatedBeginning in the mid-70s of the 20th century, Ne Win began to loosen his grip on the economy, trying to attract foreign investment and foreign aid to alleviate the dire situation he faced. Due to the limitations of Ne Win's own thinking, his reform of his planned economic system was not very vigorous, and the effect was naturally not great.
From 1961 to 1991, real GDP per capita growth stagnated, but it did not regress. If we take into account the population growth rate of 2 percentage points over the same period, Myanmar's economic growth rate during this period should be above 2 percentage points, close to 3 percentage points.
In the 14 years from 1978 to 1991, Myanmar's population grew by 33 percent to 42.78 million in 1991, an average annual growth rate of 207%, which is already slower than the population growth rate of the previous 17-year cycle, although it is still in a state of rapid growth.
In 1988, under the ** of the people, Ne Win was forced**, and Myanmar politics entered a new era. The military clique led by Su Maung maintains the political situation in Myanmar, which is a transition. Beginning in 1992, Than Shwe became the leader of the army, at this time the international situation has changed greatly, the Soviet Union has collapsed, the planned economy has become an economic system that everyone shouts about, and Myanmar naturally began to reform and open up significantly.
The main measures are: reforming state-owned enterprises, promulgating the "Law on State-owned Enterprises" and "Law on Private Industrial Enterprises", establishing the Myanmar Industrial Development Bank, establishing a number of chambers of commerce and industry associations, promoting the establishment of joint ventures between the private economy and state-owned enterprises, and allowing private leasing of state-owned enterprisesEncourage the development of the private economy, allow private enterprises to operate at home and abroad, open the borders, promote the opening of the economy, and implement the export tax rebate policy to encourage enterprises to exportImplementation of the Foreign Investment Act of the Union of Myanmar, with emphasis on attracting foreign direct investment;Reform of the financial system, allowing private banks to open banks, foreign banks to open branches in Myanmar, and banks in Myanmar to conduct foreign exchange transactions;The Law on Agriculture and Rural Development of Myanmar was promulgated, the State system of unified purchase and marketing of grain was abolished, the market for agricultural products was liberalized, agricultural products were allowed to be traded freely, and the Animal Husbandry and Fisheries Development Bank was established to support agricultural developmentLaunched the Myanmar Hotel and Tourism Act to develop the tourism service industry. In terms of the intensity of reform, this is already very large, similar to China's reform and opening up.
From 1992 to 2013, Myanmar's economy fully resumed growth, not only with a large average growth rate, but also without negative per capita real GDP growth, such as in 2009, there was no negative economic growth in many countries.
In the 22 years from 1992 to 2013, Myanmar's real GDP per capita grew by 396%, with an average annual growth rate of 755% to $4,345 in 2013 (down from $5,450 in India). In a large span of time, such rapid growth is completely an economic take-off, but the economic starting point is too low, so it has not attracted the attention of the world. For example, in 2001, the fastest real GDP per capita was 11The growth rate of 5% is more than 11% for three consecutive years from 2003 to 2005. Only in recent years, due to the level of economic development has not been too low, perhaps due to the impact of the financial crisis in the United States, the per capita real GDP growth rate has not been too fast, in the past three years, it has only maintained a per capita real GDP growth rate of around 4%, if you add 2% of the population growth rate, the GDP growth rate will still reach more than 6%.
In 2013, the population reached 64.95 million, and in the 22 years from 1992 to 2013, the population increased by 518%, with an average annual growth rate of 191%, and the population growth rate continues to decline slowly. Myanmar's population grew by 2% in 2013, which is not only related to the cyclical peak of Myanmar's population growth, but also shows that Myanmar's economy is still lagging behind. Myanmar's overall affluence is still lagging behind, which is why the population is still growing at a high rate. In fact, if we look at the data on population growth and affluence in more countries, we will feel that we can judge not only the growth rate of the population by the level of affluence, but also the level of affluence based on the growth rate of the population.
In the 53 years from 1961 to 2013, Myanmar's population grew by 202% (the Chinese population increased by 103% in the same period, which shows that Myanmar's population growth rate is significantly faster than China), with an average annual population growth rate of 211%, which is at the fastest population growth level in the world during the same period.
According to various studies, the population growth rate will decline with economic development, and when the economy develops to a certain level, the population growth rate can fall to a state of stagnation, that is, zero growth. Most countries are going through this transition, and most countries are doing it (and developed countries have done it), and Myanmar should be no exception. If Myanmar is not an exception, it means that at some point in the future, Myanmar's population growth rate will tend to zero, meaning that Myanmar's population will reach or near the maximum value. In the 31 years from 1961 to 1991, the population grew by 991%, which is of particular concern to the author, is the population growth in Myanmar during the decades of stagnant social development. These decades, although they have been decades of desolation in the economic field of Myanmar, have had a huge impact on Myanmar in the field of population. Based on the foregoing, we can draw such conclusions;Myanmar's economic stagnation has basically doubled the population of Myanmar in the decades, which leads to the fact that when Myanmar's future economic development matures, the population will be twice as large as if there were no economic stagnation in these decades, which is the lasting effect of Myanmar's economic stagnation on Myanmar's population.
Myanmar's fertility rate in 2014 was 218. This fertility rate is not high, which may mean that Myanmar's future economic development potential is very large. Myanmar's per capita real GDP level is not as high as India's, but the population fertility rate is significantly lower than India's, either Myanmar's regional wealth difference or social wealth gap is small, or Myanmar's population fertility rate is more sensitive to per capita real GDP, if this is sensitive, it means that Myanmar's population is more economically gifted than India's population, which means that Myanmar's per capita real GDP will be higher in the future. Myanmar's current low level of real GDP per capita is entirely due to Myanmar's previous economic system, which was more unfortunate than India's.
In 2011, after the elected ** came to power, it continued to promote economic reforms while focusing on political reform. Reorganize outdated economic management institutions, set up new service organizations, eliminate conservatives, reuse reformists, strengthen the strength of reformers, unify thinking and action, improve the scientific nature of decision-making and service awareness, and improve work efficiency. Adjust or promulgate a series of new laws and regulations to solve the bottleneck of economic development in a flexible way, innovate the mode of economic development, expand opening up to the outside world in a more preferential way, legislate to protect the interests of investors, and improve the advanced level of economic development. We will promote the privatization of state-owned enterprises, relax control over telecommunications, energy, and finance, and try to increase the degree of privatization of these industries, so as to boost the development of the private economy and enhance economic vitality. Reform the financial and exchange rate systems in accordance with international standards and improve the integration of Myanmar's economy with the international economy. Changing the closed and isolated situation, striving for foreign aid, frequently issuing warm invitations to the world to "attract investment", and sending delegations to China, Japan, the European Union and other countries to hold investment briefings in Myanmar. These measures show that Myanmar's economic system has been further deepened and reformed, and have laid an institutional foundation for the sustained and rapid development of Myanmar's economy in the future.
It is necessary to look back at the misguided path of Myanmar and feel the unfortunate journey of Myanmar. In 1914, the total length of the Burma railway, which was part of the British colony, reached 2,500 kilometers, more than that of French Indochina (including Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia) and more than twice the length of the Thai railway. At the end of the 1920s, the British-owned Irrawaddy River Steamship Company was one of the largest inland waterway shipping companies in the world at that time. Burma's oil production reached 1 million tons in 1921. Between 1925 and 1929, Burma exported an average of 3 million tons of rice per year, making it the world's largest rice exporter. In Southeast Asia, which was backward at that time, Myanmar was considered an "economically advanced country".
Due to the devastation of World War II, at the time of independence in 1948, the aura of the world's largest rice exporter was gone. The "U Nu**" formulated a development plan that sought to reform the deformed economic system (the colonial economic system) and the land ownership system dominated by large landlords (preparing to change this status quo through land nationalization), promote economic opening to the outside world, and actively seek assistance from the United States, Japan, China, and other countries. In the 50s of the 20th century, Myanmar's per capita real GDP grew by nearly 2% per year, which was similar to the per capita real GDP growth rate of the first-class developed countries at that time, which was obviously not fast. However, Myanmar's economic strength is still medium in Southeast Asia, similar to that of Thailand.
It is worth mentioning that Yangon in the 50s of the 20th century can be called the garden city and the "lighthouse city" of Southeast Asia. Former Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew personally led a delegation to Yangon to Xi urban planning. It can be seen that at this time, Myanmar was under the management of the left-leaning U Nu**, although the situation was not good, but it was not bad, and the per capita income was continuing to grow after all.
But this has made Burma's more left-minded hipster radicals seriously unhappy, who believe that things would be much better if they Xi the then-fashionable Soviet economic system. In addition, due to the influence of U Nu's leftist economic measures, by 1961, Myanmar's per capita real GDP growth was negative by 17%。The deterioration of the economy has also made the people dissatisfied. This led to a military coup d'état in 1962 by Ne Win, the creation of a more leftist army, and a drastic change in Myanmar's economic system. After 27 years of Ne Win's rule, Myanmar has fallen from a level similar to Thailand to one of the world's least developed countries recognized by the United Nations.
Unfortunately for Myanmar, although the land was nationalized, the planned economy system of Ne Win** did not engage in collective farming as in the Soviet Union, but distributed state-owned arable land to peasants for cultivation, which is similar to the arable land management model of the Chinese peasant contract responsibility system. Although the policy of purchasing agricultural products at low prices led to a decrease in peasants' enthusiasm for labor, resulting in a significant decline in rice production, it did not bring about a more serious situation, such as the Great Famine similar to that in the Soviet Union in the thirties of the 20th century. If Myanmar had nationalized arable land and then fully implemented the collective farming model, it was very likely that there would have been a great famine similar to that in Cambodia.