Cambodia reborn after the disaster
In the southwest of the South China Sea, in the south of the Indochina Peninsula, between Vietnam and Thailand there is a small coastal country with a long history and famous monuments such as "Angkor Wat", which is a disaster-prone land with an area of 1810,000 square kilometers of Cambodia.
According to the United Nations Statistics Division and the International Monetary Organization, Cambodia had a population of 7.02 million in 1970 and a nominal GDP per capita of US$108. Since then, due to the war or the great changes in the social system, Cambodia's per capita nominal GDP and per capita purchasing power GDP have declined year after year, and by 1974, the per capita nominal GDP fell to 87 US dollars, and the per capita real GDP was equivalent to 64 in 197003%, the population grew to 7.57 million, with an annual population growth rate of 189%。From the perspective of population growth, Cambodia's problems at this time are not too serious, and although the quality of life has obviously declined, it is not enough to affect lives.
The real serious situation was in 1975, when the population fell by 015 per cent, in fact there were signs in 1974, and in 1974 the population grew by 1121 percent, which is just about half of the previous year's population growth, suggests that people are starting to go hungry. In 1976 the situation was even worse, with a population drop of 1657%。The population declined in 1977, 1978, 1979 and 1980129%。After six consecutive years of negative population growth, the population decreased by 870,000 people, and the population decreased by more than 10% to 6.7 million in 1980. Real GDP per capita in 1980 was equivalent to 50 in 197006%, which means that the 10 years of tossing and turning in Cambodia from 1971 to 1980 led to a halving of the per capita wealth production capacity, and the proportion of wealth destroyed by the original savings was even greater.
Vietnam's dispatch of troops basically destroyed the political organization that had tormented Cambodia for 10 years, and established a new red regime similar to Vietnam. Instead of pursuing the strategy of extreme urban extermination, the city gradually came back to life, ending the negative population growth, which grew by 0931%, although the increase is not large, after all, it marks the improvement of the living environment. In 1982, the population growth rate reached 2683%, which has basically returned to normal levels. In the past two years, the overall economic improvement has not been large, and the per capita real GDP is still in a state of negative growth. Real GDP per capita fell to an all-time low in 1982, equivalent to 48 percent of real GDP per capita in 197032%。From 1983 to 1986, purchasing power per capita slowly recovered, and by 1986 real GDP per capita was equivalent to 49 percent of 197075 per cent, however, due to the rapid population growth in recent years (for example, 4% in 1984, the highest population growth rate in history), this has led to the overall economic growth rate remaining around 4%.
In 1987 and 1988, while maintaining a state of rapid population growth, the per capita real GDP increased by a large margin, and the per capita real GDP increased by 33 in just two years2%, such a rapid economic recovery must have produced some major economic reform measures. Such rapid economic growth also seems to have led to a reversal of the economy, with real GDP per capita falling by 5 percent in 1989 and 19902%, taking into account the population growth of 642%, the total economic output is still slightly growing.
In the eight years from 1991 to 1998, real GDP per capita grew at an average annual rate of 262%, for such a backward country, the economic growth rate is indeed a bit slow. The per capita nominal GDP in 1998 was $268, which was much higher than the 1970 per capita nominal GDP of $108, but in fact this is false, because the depreciation of the dollar was not taken into account, and in fact, the per capita real GDP in 1998 was only 77 in 197025%。In 1998, the population had reached 11.69 million, and the average population growth rate in the past eight years was 324%。
Since 1999, the local war has ended, and poor Cambodia has embarked on the path of reform and opening up (for example, attracting foreign investment), and its economic growth has accelerated significantly. In the 10 years from 1999 to 2008, real GDP per capita doubled, with an average annual growth rate of 76%, which by some standards is already in the stage of economic take-off. In the past 10 years, Cambodia's population growth rate has dropped significantly with the increase in income, from 2The growth rate of 355% has decreased year by year to 1 in 2008406%, in just 10 years, the population growth rate has declined significantly, you know, Cambodia's wealth has always been very low. It is so evident that the law of declining fertility due to increasing affluence is also followed. This shows that the IQ of the Cambodian population is not low, and it is very promising, and it is possible for the future economic level to reach the level of a second-rate developed country.
Cambodia's real GDP per capita in 2002 was equivalent to 99 in 197065%, with a nominal GDP per capita of $338, which basically shows the extent of the depreciation of the dollar. It also shows Cambodia's unfortunate tossing behavior, which has wasted 32 years of Cambodia's time in vain. The reason why Cambodia is relatively poor now is very clear, that is, these 32 years have been wasted due to some unfortunate reasons. According to Cambodia's economic growth rate of doubling per capita real GDP in the last 10 years, it can triple in the past 32 years, but it is a huge economic growth!Of course, it is impossible to double the economy every 10 years, but it is not a problem for Cambodia to reach the level of Thailand in terms of prosperity without delaying the 32 years without delay, which is equivalent to China's per capita prosperity level in 2013.
The U.S. financial crisis caused Cambodia's real GDP per capita to fall to 1 in 20094%, after which the economy began to grow at a faster pace. In the four years from 2010 to 2013, real GDP per capita grew at an average annual rate of 4.56%, compared with the world economic growth rate in the same period, at least not slow. Real GDP per capita in 2013 was equivalent to 189 in 197022 per cent, although still poor, indicates that people's standard of living is significantly higher than in 1970. The increase in per capita real GDP has also led to an even greater increase in per capita nominal GDP, which reached $1,015 in 2013, three times the per capita nominal GDP 11 years ago. In 2013, the population has reached 15.41 million, 10 years later, it is expected to grow to 18 million, 20 years later, maybe 20 million, however, at this time, Cambodia's population growth rate should be very slow, it is estimated that it will be 0Around 5%, in another 10 years, that is, 30 years from now, its population growth rate will be close to zero, and its population will remain around 21 million.
The fact that Cambodia was not affected by the Asian financial crisis in 1998 shows that the level of openness of the Cambodian economic system was not high at this time. This also shows that its large-scale reform and opening up measures had just begun at that time, or only after that.
Cambodia's per capita real GDP in 2013 was $3,056 (significantly higher than the UK's $2,580 per capita real GDP in 1830), $1,610 in 2002, and $785 in 1983, just after the famine.
Cambodia's fertility rate in 2014 was 266, this higher fertility rate is consistent with a lower level of affluence, but it is already lower than the fertility rate of the Philippines, which may indicate that Cambodia's development potential is greater than that of the Philippines.