South African economyIn the third quarter of 2023, it fell into recession again, shrinking by 07%。The biggest drag factor turned out to be agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, a year-on-year increase of **199%。This was unimaginable in previous quarters because:AgricultureProduction is usually stable. So why South AfricaAgricultureWill production be so big in the third quarter?
First of all, South AfricanAgricultureInfrastructure construction is seriously lagging behind, and it mainly depends on the natural environment to sustain itAgricultureproduction, which makesAgricultureIt has been further affected by natural disasters. In the wake of the outbreak of avian influenza and flooding in the Western Cape, livestock products, poultry products, livestock products, poultry products, livestock products, poultry products, livestock products, poultryGardeningThe yield of both products and crops has fallen sharply, resulting in:AgricultureProduction appeared**.
Secondly,"Electricity, gas, water supply"Departments tooSouth African economyOne of the important reasons for the decline was a year-on-year contraction of 32%。The lack of a stable supply of electricity**, gas and water supply not only adversely affects the manufacturing and service industries, but also restricts the development of other industries, resulting in the wholeEconomyof the slide.
In addition, the catering and accommodation industries shrank by 2% year-on-year in the third quarter3% and mining down 22%, and the construction sector fell by 2%.Finance, real estate and business services contracted by 01%。The decline in these industries is also on the wholeEconomyIt had an adverse effect. However, it is worth mentioning that the personal services industry increased by 1. year-on-year in the third quarter of this year9 per cent, the largest increase among all sectors in South Africa;Transportation, warehousing and communication industry year-on-year **12 percent, * 1 percent for public services provided by the sector, and 0 percent for manufacturing3%。But the growth of these industries has not been able to compensate for the decline in other industries, making South Africa as a wholeEconomyGrowth continues to be weak.
According to the data, South Africa's GDP grew by only 03%。Despite the first two quarters of the yearEconomyAll achieved year-on-year improvements, but South Africa was in the first three quarters of 2023 due to a number of sectors exceeding expectations** in the third quarterEconomyYear-over-year growth rateHad to slow down to 03%。South Africa in the first three quartersEconomyDoneNominal GDPApproximately 51711R200 million. Regrettably, howeverSouth African RandThe average exchange rate** with the US dollar was more than double digits, bringing South Africa's GDP to 281.6 billion in US dollars in the first three quarters. Calculated in US dollarsEconomyThe decline reached 9%.EconomyAs a result, the scale fell below the $300 billion mark.
ForSouth African economyThe situation is worrying, with fiscal austerity and the power crisis likely to trigger turmoil. In addition, South Africa's famous tourism industry is also expected to suffer huge losses. Frequent incidents of "theft, robbery" as well as highCrime ratewill have a negative impact on the tourism industry. In addition, the continued rise in the cost of living and borrowing costs has also put pressure on private spending by South African households, with loan inflows to private businesses growing at their lowest level in nearly two years. Overall, South Africa for the whole of 2023EconomyAnother recession is likely.
In addition to South Africa, there is another one in AfricaEconomyof the great power NigeriaEconomyThere are also dilemmas. Nigeria's GDP in the first three quarters also fell below the $300 billion mark, but compared to South Africa's in the first three quartersEconomyWeak growth of 0Nigeria is doing much better than 3%.
According to the data, Nigeria's GDP in the first three quarters of the year increased by 27%，Nominal GDPExpanded to 16676 trillion naira. And if inflation is taken into account, then Nigeria's nominal for the first three quartersEconomyThe growth rate even reached 153%。However, the Nigerian naira has seen an even greater decline in its exchange rate, depreciating by more than 30 per cent against the average dollar in the first three quarters of the year. This led to a reduction in Nigeria's GDP in US dollar terms to $287 billion in the first three quarters of 2023, also falling below the $300 billion mark, a multi-year low.
This situation is prevalent in many developing countries. These countries are often faced with high inflation, low industrial levels, andEconomyThe problem of weak foundation cannot form an effective support for the national currency. They can only rely on a sharp depreciation to improve the competitiveness of their exports, but this has also led to the instability of GDP in dollar terms, and even a decline in the event of difficulties. This has left these countries in the "middle-income trap" and unable to successfully leapfrog into the ranks of high-income and wealthy countries.
By South Africa and Nigeria, two large African countriesEconomyThe analysis of the dilemma, it is not difficult for us to findEconomydevelopment is constrained by many factors. In South Africa,AgricultureInfrastructure lags, unstable power** andCrime rateRise and other issues are rightEconomyGrowth had a negative impact. And Nigeria is facingCurrency depreciationThe problem, thoughEconomyGrowth was better, but the decline in the exchange rate led to a significant decline in GDP in dollar terms.
EconomyDevelopment cannot be ignored, especially for developing countriesEconomyThe enhancement of strength is an important guarantee for the prosperity of the country and the well-being of the people. In order to achieveEconomyThese countries need to invest more in infrastructure, raise industrial standards, improve the business environment, and strengthen governance and reduce corruption to ensure efficient use of resources and increase national competitiveness.
For South Africa and Nigeria, they both need to solve the problems they are facing, to pushEconomyReform and development. South Africa needs to be strengthenedAgricultureinfrastructure construction, reduce dependence on the natural environment, improveAgricultureresilience and resilience to disasters. At the same time, they also need to address the power and crime issues to boost manufacturing and services and create jobsEconomyActivity.
Nigeria needs to deal with inflation andCurrency depreciationproblems. They can be strengthenedMonetary policyRegulate and improvefinancial systemto control inflation and stabilize the exchange rate. In addition, they need to keep pushingEconomyDiversification, improve the level of industry, reduce dependence on the first, and thus strengthenEconomystability and sustainability.
Overall, developing countries need to pay attentionEconomyStructural adjustment and industrial upgrading to enhance their own competitiveness. Only by pushingIndustrial transformationand upgrades, occupying the globeChainhigh-end position, in order to achieveEconomySteady growth. At the same time, there is a need to strengthen infrastructure, improve education and skills, and increase innovation capabilities to provide more high-paying jobs and high-quality goodsEconomyofInternationaland sustainable development.