At the beginning of this century, the old Moutai wine was all over the streets and alleys of major cities, and you can still occasionally see wine collectors setting up stalls on the roadside.
After more than 20 years have passed, the old wine market has undergone earth-shaking changes, some of the "wine collectors" who used to set up roadside stalls have disappeared in the long river of history, and some "wine collectors" who stick to the roadside have made them become big merchants in the Moutai old wine market.
You might as well spend time with Moutai. When an old wine merchant in Beijing recalled the past, he said a joke from his wife at that time, when the living room, wardrobe, and even under the bed at home were all kinds of Moutai.
This is not an isolated case, but a common phenomenon in the Moutai old liquor market more than 20 years ago.
In 2003, the average price of commercial housing in Beijing was less than 4,600 square meters, and before that, Moutai's old liquor was not as good as new liquor, and the merchant discovered the time value of Moutai in the following two years.
In 2005, he resolutely contracted the commodity department of a high-end hotel in Beijing, and the gears of fate began to turn this year.
After a customer bought two bottles of local state-owned Moutai on the first day, he bought more than 100 bottles at 3,000 yuan per bottle in one go the next day.
This year, the per capita disposable income of the country has just reached 6,400 yuan, and these more than 100 bottles of Moutai old wine are equivalent to the salary of ordinary people in the past four yearsThis year, the average house price in Beijing was more than 6,000 square meters, and more than 100 bottles of Moutai old wine were equivalent to a one-bedroom apartment in downtown Beijing.
In the past 20 years, a bottle of local state-owned Moutai has reached 3-40,000 yuan, which has increased by more than 10 times compared with 05 years, which is comparable to the appreciation rate of housing prices in Beijing.
In the past 20 years, with the changes in the external environment, the underlying logic of the value of Moutai old liquor has been shifted twice to speed up.
The old Moutai liquor that cannot be washed away by "big water".
At the end of 2001, China's accession to the WTO, the export volume of that year was only more than 270 billion US dollars, and the subsequent 10 years of exports have always maintained a rapid growth of more than 20% except for the impact of the global financial turmoil), the WTO entry dividend let China enter the first 10 years of export economic development.
In the past 10 years, the growth rate of domestic currency has exceeded 10% in 9 years, and has increased by nearly 4% in 10 years5 times.
Although it is a barometer of the national economy, the "big release" of the currency has not benefited the a** field, the Shanghai Composite Index in 2001 hit a stage high of 2245 points and then entered a five-year decline**, in 2005 it fell to the lowest point since this century 998 points.
In the first five years of this century, everything went up, but A-shares did not rise, and capital seems to know more about China's high-net-worth individuals.
Calligraphy and painting collections, jade culture, mahogany culture, sky-high Pu'er, Moutai wine and other goods with traditional Chinese cultural attributes shined at the beginning of this century, and after people solved the needs of food and clothing, the people who got rich first began to be interested in spiritual pursuits such as collecting, art appreciation, and tea and wine tasting.
Different from calligraphy and painting, jade, mahogany, etc., tea wine is a consumable, especially Pu'er tea and Moutai wine, which have three unique attributes: limited production area, scarcity of aging, and thousands of years of traditional Chinese culture.
A glass of wine in the red dust, a pot of tea in the great cause of a thousand autumns", tea and wine culture has built a social bridge for Chinese for thousands of years.
As a fermented tea, Pu'er tea is the only tea in the world that can be stored for a long time, and the taste becomes more mellow with the increase of storage years.
In 2004, Pu'er tea was only one kilogram of yuan, and the per capita disposable income at that time had reached more than 5,600 yuan, which meant that ordinary workers could buy one kilogram of Pu'er tea with half a day's salary.
In 2005, Pu'er tea started the first round of hype, from the second half of 2006 to the beginning of 2007, and by the first quarter of 2007, the average price of Pu'er tea rose by about 4 times, and some well-known brands even skyrocketed more than 10 times.
Unlike the more scattered Pu'er tea brands, Moutai is only produced by Kweichow Moutai Distillery, and the uniqueness of the production area and brand makes Moutai old liquor more sustainable to attract gold.
Between 2003 and 2007, the average annual appreciation rate of Moutai old liquor reached 20%, which is basically the same as the housing price in Beijing.
In 2008, the PPI index hit the highest point in the first 20 years of this century, which in turn promoted high inflation for two consecutive years in 07 and 08, and the alcohol consumption index also hit a record high (1075）。
The central bank's monetary policy then ushered in a 180-degree turn, 07 years in a year 6 interest rate hikes, 10 times to raise reserves are rare in history, 08 years of money growth hit a new low in the first 10 years of this century. The capital has already quietly entered the capital market, and A-shares have opened the largest round of bull market in history, with the Shanghai Composite Index soaring from 998 points to 6,124 points in two years, and the speculation of various commodities financialization after the funds have withdrawn has come to an abrupt end.
During this period, Kweichow Moutai's ** continued to "absorb gold", and the stock price doubled in only 07 years, and Moutai's capital market and spot commodities achieved the same frequency resonance for the first time. At this time, Moutai's old liquor merchants and collectors began to take shape, and in the same year, Moutai old liquor appeared on the external communication page of Moutai's official magazine.
After the global financial turmoil in 08, the amount of money has accelerated to more than 20% again, and the high growth of the PPI index has led to the resurgence of inflation.
Capital began to change its methods and poured into the Moutai market, which not only pushed up the auction of Moutai old liquor**, but also derived innovative financial products closely related to the trading of Moutai old liquor.
Private professional old wine auction institutions came into being, and old wine institutions such as Goethe Yingxiang have sprung up. In June 2010, the institution held China's first liquor auction, in which a single bottle of Moutai sold for 1.03 million yuan**, equivalent to a one-bedroom apartment in downtown Beijing at that time.
In the same year, the "Moutai Trust" was born, and its use is mainly through auction or private acquisition of aged Moutai liquor and other collectible Moutai liquor that was shipped before 2000, with an expected annualized rate of return of 85%。
From 2001 to 2012, the ex-factory price of Moutai was raised from 155 yuan to 819 yuan, and the price was raised as many as 8 times in 11 years, an increase of more than 4 times. A bottle of Feitian Moutai produced in 2000 was sold at a market price of about 220 yuan that year, and the value of it could exceed more than 2,000 yuan in 2012, with a yield of nearly 10 times in 12 years.
After 2012, Moutai old liquor will usher in a new appreciation logic, and the era of relying on excess liquidity to buy and rise has gradually faded away. And the bottle of Feitian Moutai produced in 2000 will also be close to 13,000 yuan in 2022, an increase of nearly 60 times in 22 years, with a compound annual growth rate of more than 20%.
Data**: Official website of the central bank, chart production: Sanyou Capital From 2000 to 2012, the amount of money ** increased nearly 6 times;Between 2012 and 2022, that number only more than doubled. In the past 10 years, when the growth rate of currency ** slowed down, the inflation rate was low, and the number of price increases of Moutai was the smallest, it became the fastest growing 10 years for Moutai old liquor.
Moutai old liquor began to part ways with other commodities that increased rapidly in the first 12 years of this century, and a new underlying logic quietly came.
After the "ebb tide", a scale effect of 100 billion yuan was born
When the alcohol consumption ** index hit a new high for two consecutive years in 2011 and 2012, perhaps no one paid attention to the subtle changes of the times.
In the 10 years from 2013 to 2022, the growth rate of money ** slowed down significantly, only in the three years from 2015 to 2017 exceeded 10%, and the CPI index hovered at a low level for a long time.
Between 2009 and 2014, China's per capita disposable income doubled in five years, which is one of the fastest growing periods of domestic residents' wealth since the beginning of this century.
In 2013, the restriction of "three public consumption" and the superposition of "plasticizers" once made liquor enter the darkest moment, and at the same time, it also gave birth to Moutai's incremental market from political and commercial consumption to business and even middle-class consumption, and Moutai old liquor gradually broke away from the extensive development logic under the flood irrigation.
The "black swan" event in the industry unexpectedly knocked on the door of Moutai's demand, and with the capital market fueling the share price of Kweichow Moutai, a top-down collection boom is gradually approaching.
This craze has been staged repeatedly in Chinese and foreign history, but there are different stories behind famous scenes such as the Dutch tulip craze in the 17th century and the "Luoyang Paper Expensive" in the Western Jin Dynasty of China.
Tulips are native to Turkey and introduced to Western Europe in the mid-16th century, and in the 17th century, the rare tulip bulb became a symbol of nobility in Europe. With its own excellent port and foreign experience, the capital Amsterdam has become the center of Europe and even the world, attracting a large influx of gold and silver.
Between 1636 and 1638, the number of gold coins minted in the Netherlands increased by more than 5 times year-on-year, and silver coins increased by more than 20%, and only in the first two months of 1637, a large number of over-issued currencies pushed some tulip bulbs** to skyrocket by 10 or 20 times, and the scarce varieties were even as high as 50 times.
The short flowering period of just one week in April and May is doomed to the end of the tulip bubble – short-lived, although the average decline of precious bulbs during this period is relatively small, between 24% and 35%.
In 280 AD, the Western Jin Dynasty destroyed the Eastern Wu, the Three Kingdoms era of war and chaos ended, and there was a brief period of prosperity in society, and literary and artistic masterpieces frequently emerged. In the same year, Zuo Si completed the later famous "Sandu Fu", but at this time the author was still unknown, and when he showed his works to others to enjoy, there would always be ridicule.
Until the famous writer Zhang Hua at that time recommended the work to the more well-known Huangfu Mi, and made a preface to the "Sandu Fu Preface", and later the works Lang Zhang Zai, Zhu Zhongshu Lang Liu Kui successively for Wei Du Fu, Shu Du Fu, Wu Du Fu to make notes, "Three Du Fu" under the preface effect of celebrities and scholars became famous.
In the era when printing technology was not yet widely popularized, the most powerful and literati copied one after another, resulting in a shortage of paper, and for a while "Luoyang paper was expensive". With the decline in the popularity of "Sandu Fu", the paper** gradually recovered, and the Luoyang paper** dropped to the normal level.
The main reason for the price increase in the development of the tulip boom and the "Luoyang paper expensive" incident in the Western Jin Dynasty is due to the leadership of the powerful and celebrities, cultural consensus and short-term scarcity of supply.
Obviously, not all commodities can pass through the cycle, and if the three conditions of the herd effect, cultural consensus and short supply are only short-term benefits, then the glory of the commodity can only be short-lived.
Moutai is neither a "tulip" nor a "Luoyang paper", and the short-lived herd effect is difficult to have long-term value, and how can a bottle of old liquor that has been appreciating for 20 years get rid of the shackles of the cycle?
Funds always find certainty in uncertainty, Moutai can still be sought after after experiencing the "black swan" event in the industry, and its ability to pass through the cycle has once again been verified, and capital can always smell the smell of far exceeding the market interest rate in advance.
In March 2017, Moutai trust products reappeared, COFCO Trust launched the Feitian No. 1 Moutai Investment Trust Plan, which raised up to 100 million yuan to invest in Moutai products with room for appreciation (mainly including Feitian 53 degrees, five-star 53 degrees, Zodiac Moutai, customized Moutai and Moutai vintage wine, etc.), with an expected annualized rate of return of 69%~7.1%。
By the time it was terminated in 2019, the liquidation report showed that the trust plan distributed a total of 1374.9 billion yuan, with a two-year investment rate of return of 3749%。
According to data from the China Liquor Industry Association, in less than 10 years from 2013 to 2021, the transaction size of the old liquor market has expanded rapidly by about 10 times. The number of old wine consumers has also grown rapidly from less than 3 million in 2013 to 10.68 million in 2018, with a compound annual growth rate of 309%。
When Moutai is combined with old liquor, its continuous income above the market interest rate has attracted the preference of channel dealers, investors, collectors and other parties.
15.The core production area of 03 square kilometers is a scarce resource that cannot be replicated in other places, from feeding to packaging into bottles for up to 5 years, which is the time cost that most enterprises can not bear, and the history of more than 70 years of factory construction takes 50 years to realize the same frequency resonance of the capital market and spot commodities, and it is the double precipitation of brand and quality. Cultural consumption, symbol consumption, investment collection, when they become the only one in the industry, the herd effect has persistence, and the scale effect is diversified.
According to the data of the China Wine Association, the total online and offline transaction scale of liquor in previous years was about 200 billion to 300 billion yuan, of which Moutai accounted for about 170 billion to 255 billion yuan, accounting for 85%.
According to research and calculations, the scale of the old wine stock market has exceeded one trillion yuan, making it one of the largest private collection markets in China. Among them, the annual transaction scale of Moutai liquor in previous years is about 110 billion yuan, including Kweichow Moutai in previous years and aged Kweichow Moutai.
In the annual transaction scale of 100 billion yuan, there are high-net-worth people and middle class from the composition of the buying population, and drinking, gifts, collection and investment from the perspective of the purpose of purchase.
Epilogue
For the society as a whole, whether the scale effect of Moutai Old Liquor can continue in the future depends on the improvement of liquidity and the improvement of information exchange mechanism. The "Yangliuwan Forum and Moutai Collectors' Association" held in Moutai Town every year has injected new momentum into market liquidity while gathering more and more collectors to communicate.
Moutai is an important source of China's old liquor market, and we have the responsibility to show Moutai's actions and make Moutai's contribution in promoting the high-quality development of the old liquor industry. Ding Xiongjun, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of Moutai Group, said at the first Yangliuwan Forum and Moutai Collectors Association that culture is the most hardcore force in the development of the old liquor industry.
Ding Xiongjun pointed out that Moutai will build a high-quality development system for Moutai old liquor, and advocate the concept of "buying the current year's liquor, drinking the liquor of previous years, tasting the aged liquor, and collecting the old liquor" to form a virtuous circle.
On December 17, the 2nd Yangliuwan Forum and Moutai Collectors Winter Gathering in 2023 will be ushered in, which will not only release the "Moutai Old Liquor "Tasting and Collection" Ecosystem Research Report, but also the awarding ceremony of the third batch of Moutai Archives and the first batch of overseas Moutai Collections.
In order to promote the continuous prosperity of the Moutai old liquor market, since the beginning of this year, 21 "Moutai Collections" have been approved, covering more than 10 provinces and cities across the country. At the 2023 Golden Autumn Friendship Party of Moutai Collectors, Ding Xiongjun said in his speech that through the establishment of the Moutai Old Liquor Advisory Committee, the Moutai Collectors Association and other mechanisms, the Moutai Old Liquor Market has been promoted to continue to prosper, and all relevant parties have gained considerable economic value and built a solid sustainable development ecology of Moutai Old Liquor.
Many of the "wine collectors" who have adhered to this day have grown into a member of the "Moutai Collectors", the older of them are over the age of old, and the young ones are also close to the age of confusion, from the era when the old wine is lower than the new wine, it has been more than 20 years in the blink of an eye, they have been the discoverers of the value of old wine, and they are also the evangelists of the concept of "tasting" in the future.
Being a Moutai can communicate with any industry and anyone, chat happily, and it is easy to shorten the distance between people and reduce estrangement. A current "Moutai collector" has decided to make Moutai his life's work more than ten years ago.
*: Sanyou Capital).