The U.S. Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the target range for the federal interest rate at 525% to 5The 5% level was unchanged, in line with market consensus. Powell pointed out that interest rate cuts are starting to come into view, and policymakers are thinking about and discussing when to cut interest rates. The Fed's updated median interest rate** shows a 75 basis point rate cut to 46%, and the long-term federal interest rate is expected to be 25%。
As the financial attributes of steel become stronger and stronger, all kinds of news will be used by capital, and at the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on the evening of the 13th, the Federal Reserve turned to **, from 75 basis points of interest rate cut expectations, to now pricing in 2024 (**year) interest rate cut of 150 basis points, but no matter how much interest rate is cut, the overall is good for commodities, and the off-season is still expected to go, which is good for the steel trend.
Since 0:00 on December 15, the coke ** in Xingtai and Shandong markets has been raised, with an increase of 100 yuan for wet quenching coke and 110 yuan for dry quenching coke. After the adjustment, the main stream of quasi-one wet quenching is 2550-2600 yuan ton, and the main stream of quasi-one dry quenching is 2920-2940 yuan ton. After the adjustment of Xingtai, the quasi-dry extinguishing ** 2820 yuan ton, the ex-factory price is tax included.
Shanxi coal mine production accident again, Luliang area mine shutdown, raw coal will be affected, coupled with the recent snowfall in many areas in the north, the temperature has dropped significantly, the demand for coal has increased, coke opened the fourth round of 100-110 yuan tons, the cost side support is strong, the steel price reduction is limited, good steel trend.
*The Meteorological Observatory will continue to issue a yellow warning for heavy snowfall at 06:00 on December 14: It is expected that from 08:00 on December 14 to 08:00 on December 15, there will be heavy to heavy snowfall in parts of central Inner Mongolia, southeastern Jilin, eastern Liaoning, southeastern Shaanxi, northwest Hubei, most of Henan, northern Anhui, central and western Shandong, and southern Hebei.
In mid-December, many places in the north were disturbed by cold air, and snowfall began in many areas, affecting the outdoor construction progress and steel market transportation, reducing steel demand, and the downstream terminal demand is expected to weaken, and the market transaction is sluggish, suppressing the steel trend, and bearish steel.
Among the 24 markets for building materials, 13 markets fell 10-20 yuan tons, and the average rebar 20mmHRB400E was 4046 yuan tons, down 23 yuan tons from the previous trading day
Among the 24 markets of hot coil, 9 markets fell 10-40 yuan tons, and 7 markets rose 10-20 yuan tons, 4The average of 75 hot-rolled coils was 4074 yuan tons, down 19 yuan tons from the previous trading day
In the 23 markets of medium and heavy plates, 4 markets fell 10-30 yuan tons, 2 markets rose 10-20 yuan tons, and the average of 14-20mm medium plate was 4099 yuan tons, down 6 yuan tons from the previous trading day.
On the 14th, the main force of black rebar fell 65 to close at 3925, down 163%；The main force of hot coil fell 42 to close at 4047, down 103%；The main force of coking coal fell 65 to close at 1881, down 334%；The main force of coke fell 25 to close at 2620, down 095%；Iron ore fell 10 to close at 942, down 105%。
With the end of the two important meetings, after the market policy expectations were disappointed, the macro expectations entered a vacuum period, and the impact on the finished products weakened, plus the total output of large timber increased slightly by 1 this week930,000 tons to 910240,000 tons, of which thread production decreased by 4260,000 tons to 256860,000 tons, the output of hot coil fell by 7840,000 tons to 314320,000 tons, supply and demand are weak, the decline in demand is greater than the decline in output, the demand for steel is expected to be weaker and weaker, the market is cold, and it is expected that tomorrow's steel will be stable in a fall, with a range of 10-30 yuan tons.